Chia’s network is expanding exponentially… To the moon

Lucky are those who entered this rave before the Mainnet launch. We (small / home farmers) should have expected this while building the rigs.

Chia’s network is expanding exponentially… To the moon

Lucky are those who entered this rave before the Mainnet launch. We (small / home farmers) should have expected this while building the rigs.

1 Like

Hi. Great video, I started plotting 12.4 and my best estimated time to win was something around 4 days. Now it says 2 weeks and 2 days and I haven’t stopped plotting since 14.4. I have currently ~700 plots and space for 100 more. I definitely not buying more hard drives I will leave this on for 3 months and then I will try to sell the drives.

12 ZiB in 6 months, thats average 75 EiB per day. My simple mind refuse to acnowledge that kind of growth.

2 Likes

That is interesting, i was lucky enough to win 2 xch with my first plot after an hour of starting estimated time to win was three years i have plotted 133 plots estimated time 3 weeks network was about 500pb but i decided to leave it at that now its estimated three months network size is nearly 5.5eb. I don’t know if i should delete all my plots and plot to a pool once that is out or just leave them and get some more drives and plot to a pool.

The total output of hdd’s from Toshiba, Seagate and WD together is around 1000 EB yearly, so yeah increasing the Chia network per day by 7% of global yearly HDD production doesn’t seem very realistic unless they find away to increase production by a factor 100 or something

1 Like

short answer is : YES

2100 plots and 0 XCH , still plotting 12TB/day!

130 TiBs, **ZERO XCH**!

Reseling HDD is the best chance

by calculation it shold give you every 11 days, something is wrong with networg, very big manipulations?

Depends on what you define as fail. I started ETH mining some months ago. Way too late one would say. In some weeks my RTX 3080 has payed itself. I would not consider that a fail. Imho, same will evetually apply for XCH once we get pooling. One just got to accept the fact that you wont get rich overnight (well except your a DOGE hodler :P)

I’m now at 2222 plots. I’ve maintained a 0.0033% network share for 16 days now so my expected time to win should be 6 days. The probability of not winning in 16 days with this network share is 7%, so I’m either extremely unlucky or there’s something wrong with my setup… I’ve checked my setup many many times and everything seems ok so I guess that I’m just unlucky… (I’ve posted about this here)

That’s interesting. I would be contacting someone in the Dev team if possible and ask for an explanation.

You are at the same netspace that one of my farm. I haven’t won from 3 weeks, I should win every 3 days, now a week.

Still nothing? No luck?

Guys, You seriously thought, that You can be a millionares in 1 month mining Chia? I think You are pretty new in crypto then

Regarding the grow in movie: * It’s totally bullshit.* It is not possible to reach such a growth as long as there is simply no supply of hard disks for that, wtf is that analysis… Reaching 500 EiBs is actually the top what we will see over next 4-5 years, just check the HDD supply over past years - it is simply not possible, because there is NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY OF HDDs. So how can we expect such a grow. We simply can’t.

1 Like

I’m not a big fan of these cryptotubers, but nevertheless, this was, IMO, one of the below average videos (only watched the first one).

First of all, now if ever it’s profitable to plot and farm Chia - the ROI is falling day by day, and even a single week at this point could mean a loss of tens of percent of the total return over the entire hard drive life cycle. At the beginning of the month, 1TB earned 5 bucks a day, a week ago 3-4 bucks a day, now we are in the situation 1.2 bucks a day. Personally, I’ve paid an average of $ 18 per TB, so a month back when I started the ROI for my first drives was less than a week (though there was no certainty about that because trading hadn’t started yet). Even now, this one USD per day means a payback period of a couple of weeks - which is completely insane ROI. Of course, it is worth considering the potential SSD purchases and other expenses but nevertheless, this kind of ROI is not stable - the price must fall or the network grow A LOT very quickly to find a more realistic level.

Sure, the ROI keeps decreasing, but there is still a long way to go to get into 3/6/12 months payback periods that we have seen with GPUs and ETH. And by the time we get there, the HDD has probably paid itself back already.

Sure, I also agree that if you have only a few plots, there is a chance of not getting any wins ever. Well, there is a solution also for these guys. 4 letters, starts with H and ends with pool. It seems like hpool is a dirty, scammy, and completely forbidden word among Chia fans but the truth is that these guys detected an opportunity, and took it. They are providing a service for small farmers and literally a solution and a way to profit from Chia - exactly what people are complaining about. Sure, it seems that they might be taking about 20 % of the profits, and it’s not healthy for the network in general, but I think it is shameful to blame them for doing good business and helping the small fishes on the side when the Chia team made a huge miscalculation and in some sense, failed themselves. Sure, giving your private key to hpool is a bit shady, but you can easily withdraw your wins directly to any wallet, including one in an exchange or another private one that hasn’t been “burned”. I’m not here promoting this pool (or anything else) but it’s funny to see huge blames about chia farming while when utilizing the hpool, Chia is still being the most profitable coin to “mine” in the whole crypto industry!

In my opinion, the weakest issue in that video was that calculation itself. The guy tried to underestimate the numbers, but didn’t seem to grasp the idea of stabilization and exponential growth (please, correct me if I have understood it completely wrong). As a result, with figures given by him in 6 months, the size of the entire network would be 43 ZiBs - I would guess that is a multiple times more than the current storage capacity in the world, not to mention the production capacity of Seagate and its peers. According to Google, the size of the world’s total HDD base was 295 exabytes in 2011. Someone estimated that by now there would be 2 ZiBs, in 2023 there would be 12 ZiBs, and in 2025 just under a couple hundred ZiBs. Annual growth now was estimated to be about 5-20 ZiB per year. From that, one can calculate how likely people will end up plotting multiple times the world’s storage capacity and annual output by Christmas…

I have also my doubts about the exponential growth continuing. I don’t believe that the number of farmers will double every week from now on, not to mention the current number of SSDs doubling every week - today I am mining with 4 SSDs, but there’s no chance that by next week I would have 8 SSDs and after that 16. That exponential growth will level off faster than any of these tubedudes realize, IMO. After a few weeks, there is just no chance that the system could continue exponentially.

The situation is the same for the stabilization - I believe we will stabilize very quickly into some reasonable daily growth, let it be 1, 5 or 12 EiBs. But with the current exponential growth rate, we will get there quite quickly, I’d suspect.

The video also throws pictures of how not to compete with the big boys, but so far the Chinese GPU farms haven’t bothered me mining ETH profitably.

Personally, in my own calculations, I have used the assumption that we are now doubling a couple of weeks to maybe 40 EiB, and after that very quickly the growth will stabilize to a few EiBs per day. In that case, by the end of the year, we would sit somewhere around 200 EiBs. And instead of the video’s “Earn only 1k with a 10k setup”, a 2k setup would produce closer to10k at current prices by the end of the year. Of course, this probably cannot happen, which leads to two options: Either the value of the XCH has to decrease or the growth rate increases a lot in order to get closer to perhaps around 3 month ROI instead of 3 weeks.

2 Likes

Actually there has not been exponential growth for 10 straight days now.

Pretty steady linear growth of 500 PB/day since may 11th

it becase hdd price gone exponental, and just cant find hdds any more

1 Like

120 TB and no chia …ZERO