Am I wasting time/money?

Chia blockchain is great tech and has a huge potential! I built my plotting rig last week and been plotting for several days now. Producing around 1.5TiB/day. HDD capacity ~146TB. Given the exponential growth of net space I do feel that I just won’t be able to keep up with it, and most likely won’t get a single XCH farmed. Am I just wasting time and should I just sell everything and move on with life, get back to video games and stocks trading?

UPD: sorry, I guess I’m just venting :slight_smile:

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Similar to stock, if you do NOT want to dilute the holding you need to keep buying in to keep the % in the company. My current strategy is plotting quicker than the network.

This reflects in time-to-win which should be lower and lower over time.

If I cannot keep up, it means that I’ve not put enough capital - considering similar efficiency.

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The answer that you are fishing for is “Yes.”

The purpose is not to keep up. That is the very “not purpose” of Chia. If you won two blocks today, would that change your decision? What about two blocks a year from now?

I would say you are looking for an immediate, positive feedback loop, in which case, you should keep plotting until pools come along, then switch to pools to smooth out your risk/reward cycle which will de-risk some of your investment and give the behaviour reinforcement you are desiring.

If you cannot weather the uncertainty, crypto is not a speculative investment vehicle you should be engaging with.

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Increasing the plotting speed at the same (or similar) pace of netspace growth doesn’t seem to be achievable.

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Just to make it clear - I’m not looking to get rewarded the same day I started, and I’m also fine with uncertainty and volatility. The question is - is it even feasible to attempt? I add 50TB to my capacity - net space adds 0.5 EiB :smiley: That’s pretty discouraging.

I’m excited about pools, tbh. But given that we’ll have to plot for pools from scratch also makes me slightly sad.

I disagree on that.
Let’s say you start last week, the network was like 1PB and now it’s 2PB.
100% increase or 2X

You may start your plotting with 0TB, and now after a week it’s 10TB. It’s not even divisible. Let’s simplify and say it’s 10X.
You proportion of the network is increasing.

Before: 0 TB / 1 PB = 0
After: 10 TB / 2 PB = something more than zero

Assumption: your additional plot space is small. therefore, it does not affect the total space much

In stock, a company may require additional capital by issuing stock. let’s say additional 10% of total stock. You need to buy additional 10% of your current investment to keep up. this is the same concept.

I feel the same worry and have about the same space available to fill up.

I don’t know about where you live, but for me the second hand pc market is quite good, so apart from the burnt out ssd, the rest should be good to sell for 60-70%. Don’t think it matters much if you sell today or in three months.

If the Chia value holds up, looking at a one year (short) time period you should still do quite well.

If, If If, we just don;t know how it will continue.

Point is: Money and time is already spent, plotting will take little effort from now on…so might as well hodl untill things are more clear. Selling your stuff will remain a option no matter what.

At least that’s what I keep telling myself :innocent:

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Unlike GPU mining, you can run your solo plots alongside your pool plots. Then, when you have run out of space for pool plots, start stripping out your solo plots. It is what I intend to do. As an aside, 2PiB capacity with room to grow to 5Pib, less than 100TiB plotted. To paraphase Dory from Finding Nemo “Just keep plotting.”

Edit: Fixed incorrect statement on current capacity.

Good points! The math makes sense. So in pure proportion it’s probably looking good (e.g. the netspace doubled from 1EiB to 2EiB in a week, whereas my 1TB increased 7x to 7TB). The problem is - if the net space keeps doubling every week - my plotting won’t keep 7x-ing weekly. So the more time passes - the bigger the ration is between the net space any my plots :slight_smile:

Do you mind sharing your rig specs? Also curious how did you manage to get that much space. Are you hosting it all in a data-center of some sort?

I also like your “just keep plotting”. Maybe thats the way.

For some perspective, I recommend watching yesterday’s YouTube video from the team. It covers why you should stick around even if you have a relatively small farm.

This is a project if you’re in it for the long haul, they are.

The netspace is growing really quickly now due to huge interest, but that will level off soon. Really interesting to learn what the team thinks will happen on the short and long term.

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Maybe also terribly important to point out: putting money in crypto is a complete gamble. You’re not investing. You should only put money in that you’re 100% ready to lose. Guess that answers the original question. :sweat_smile:

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A lot of people are looking for validation of choices in their life. And as capably pointed out by @cultiv, it’s pure gambling. You’re speculating on the future value, not what you currently have or possibly win. There’s mitigations you can undertake to smooth out some of the peaks and troughs, but at the end of the day, it’s gambling. If you have to explain to your SO why the credit card is maxed out this month, you probably shouldn’t have done that.

It is on some wire shelving in the shower cubicle of the bathroom that is shared with the cats. The specs aren’t all that important because what works for me, probably won’t work for someone else. Each of us needs to find our own path.

My goal is to end up with the most chia I can in the next 5-10 years given a fixed budget I’m willing to spend.

One way I could go about that is buying chia, but for now I feel like buying hard drives and plotting to them will yield more chia over the long haul. Eventually, if the price gets low and the netspace gets high I’ll be better of buying the chia, but I don’t think we’re there yet given the amount of soak time these plots will get over the next 5-10 years.

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Haha, when I introduced my SO to the topic, the next thing I heard was “why didn’t you get more disks?”. But I agree - its all pure gambling after all.

Thanks for sharing the video. Will definitely watch it.

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You’ve got a lot of disk space, which most people would wish they were in that position. You’re already ahead there. I would keep on plotting, see if you can get another computer like your office computer to plot too (even if its 0.5 TB/day it adds up). See if you can improve plotting speed on your current rig by adding RAM and another 2TB NVMe for temp space.

Keep plotting. I am managing a farm for myself and for 4 colleagues. One of them just won a chia with 15TB plotted (estimated time to win was 24 days but he just started farming 5 days ago).

Growth cant keep going at this rate forever, eventually it will level off and your 146TB will win quite a bit of coins over the course of a year. Then hold the coins and don’t sell for years. If you need the money then maybe this isn’t the best route for you. Chia is a long term play.

I’ve got about 400TB in capacity and I’ve got 70TB plotted in the last 10 days. I have 2 custom rigs plotting at 3-3.5TB/day each, my home rig is plotting at 1.5TB/day and my office rig at 0.5TB/day. I’m plotting quite a bit faster than network space is growing even at this exponential rate. After I fill up this 400TB I am ordering a 1.69 Petabyte JBOD to hold future plots & investing upgrading my home and office rigs to full plotters (adding another 32GB ram and buying 2x 2TB NVMes on each) to make them plot 3-3.5TB/day each. I’m not planning on selling any coins for 5-10 years.

I hope by sharing my perspective this gives you some insight into how to approach this, and if you choose to, you’ll understand how some of us are growing in this faster than the netspace does.

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Bram basically said if you are at less than 200tb, join a pool. There is a forum pool that is being started that is pinned at the top of this discussion section.

My opinion is, if Bram said to join a pool, I will. I am sure it will all even out in a pool and if there are times where we get nothing, at least I have someone to talk to about it haha

He also said nobody should join a pool and just have patience. It can make sense for people with less than a petabyte to join a pool if they want some earnings in the short run, is what I understood from the video above.

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