Are the approaching halving’s of Chia for finding a block a good idea?

Slightly concerned about the break even time when considering if it’s worth expanding the farm, it must be 3 or 4yrs at the moment just accounting for the disks alone (excluding power). It’s not like the cost of hard drives is going to fall by half or double in size in a year or two.

Why design something where the investment return is going to reduce? Will people want to pay twice as much for chia overnight well I don’t know. If some farmers give up then the time to win may go down I guess.

Anyone else worried, what are your plans?

I’m half in it just to enjoy playing around with the hardware. I don’t trust it enough to buy Chia like many do say.


I think that halving will discourage people from continuing. Anyone on the fence, considering getting into Chia farming, will be discouraged from getting started.

The more popular Chia becomes, the more mainstream Chia will become, and the more long-term staying power it will have. I do not see how halving will accomplish that. It seems counter intuitive.

I am no crypt-o expert.
I am no financial expert.

Maybe there is some benefit to halving?
Without a benefit, why do so?

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Not at all! You’re looking at it completely wrong. The halvings are a good thing! They’ll drive the price up. Look at bitcoins history. Every halving, caused a bull run. Granted, chia is not bitcoin, but same principles apply. I am excited for the halving. I’m interested to see what it’ll do for Chia’s price!


It may be enough to offset the pre-mine when they unlock it (for loans, the project, coin burns, whatever they decide on).

Honestly I’m more curious about the break even point, where even if you have either free power or free drives, it’s no longer profitable to expand the farm (kind of where ASICs, GPUs, and CPU mining are at right now).

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I did not know that halving did that.
Did the bull runs double the price of the coins?

Did the bull runs begin when the halving date was approaching? Or was it on the day of the halving, or sometime after the date of the halving?

What type of time frame was it?

It would seem that purchasing xch, before the expected bull run, might be a good move?

No. Depends on where your pulling your numbers. BTC’s 2017 run produced something like 17-20x gains IIRC. As I said though… That’s Bitcoins lol. The grandfather. I’d expect to see at least 5-10x in the next run up. It’s generally what most alts do. Some go much much higher than that. Depends on the hype around a given project. Ultimately though, what causes the bull cycles is BTCs halving.

The runs on BTC usually peak around a year after the halving iirc. I’d have to pull a chart up and get all the dates to check specifically.

Definitely. You should’ve started scaling into any cryptos that you want around q3 of 2022. That’s what I started doing anyways. Bought a lump sum around Thanksgiving and then started putting $100/week into projects that I wanted to accumulate. Strategy has been doing well for me so far! Portfolio has pretty much doubled.

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Look into PlanB Stock to Flow model.

I do not know what that means.

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The next BTC halving is a much smaller impact in terms of % issuance compared to the first. The first halving of XCH will cut farmer sell pressure on the market in half while demand remains the same. Currently farmer sell pressure is a large % of the total XCH out there. I’d be pretty bullish on that, I don’t expect the price to double, but a 10-20% increase wouldn’t be out of the question.


Assuming that the price will go up by 20%, that would imply that farms will be making 60% of what they are making today.

Sounds like a reasonable estimate. As usual, things could be more but it’s better to be pessimistic in planning than optimistic. Pessimistic people have tornado shelters when tornados come :smiley:


I think chris is being a tad pessimistic.
I expect well over 20%.


Same here.

If the gain is just 20%, that could mean the end of Chia, as farms would not be sustainable anymore (for most folks ROI would be way longer than drive lifespans).


Well, we could / should also expect a rise in xch price at our halving / reduction to counter the lower rewards.

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