I don’t understand, chia value is falling down like fast and furious but the network space is still growing!. How much time will it take to get back my cost? I think its tripled??
The value of Chia is tied to the value of crypto-currency generally, which has just been effectively banned in the worlds second largest economy, it has been constantly under attack since Chia mainnet went live.
I am surprised we aren’t looking at much more loss of value.
People get worried, seeing news like that and trade in their crypto, this causes prices to fall.
Do you think crypto has a future, that it will weather the storm and come out stronger, if so buy the dip. If not…
Crypto isn’t for the faint of heart. Look at BTC in 2017-18 and 2021. Flash crashes of 50% with market turmoil. All crypto is under pressure when the stock markets are selling.
China cracked down on crypto to prop their failing real estate market and slow the flight from real estate to cryptos.
My current stance is that I am holding my ground with the hardware I invested in. I am continuing to plot until all drives are full. The payback is only on paper. Chia is so early that paper gains mean nothing IMO. The depreciation on your hardware is less than the drop in chia, so consider waiting a bit more. IMO the timeframe to rationalize selling HW is in a year. I am going to give this time to level out. If not Chia, maybe another a new storage based crypto will emerge.
If the writing is on the wall, I will repurpose the HW and will considering selling it off.
When you get depressed about the price of XCH, remember this chart, and esp. Dec 10th 2017 * Dec 9th 2018 where their high prices were, respectively, $20,089 & $3.647, a 72% drop. Now consider XCH, that is going through something similar along with many other cryptos.
Must have been sad for participants and hard to rationalize hodling over that period. So last night I watched this fellow and calmed down a bit, even as XCH is today $158.22 … I fondly remember the days when XCH was ~$1600 … so an 81% drop… sigh … maybe again one day.
After my massive error I had to start re-plotting my 80TB farm last week. After my first three K33s were laid it said 18 years to win, lolol!
It was 4 months to win when my farm was full. With 15 K33s I am now down to 7 years just four days into plotting. In three months I’ll be done plotting my 80TB again and probably at around 5 or at worst 6 months to win. I might even get lucky before I’m done plotting!
I may then even add two more HDDs for my current empty array slots and maybe another array and four more drives further down the road.
Why would I do this with current Chia prices?
Because it is about years not hours. Because it is about many factors that only affect Chia as a sub-set of the entire crypto market. Because farming is fun, waking up every morning to see if I won a small lottery ticket, and because it is quite possible the Chia I earn now will actually be worth something in the long run.
If you are a trader you must focus on the charts and the price. If you are a farmer you should largely ignore both if you value your mental health.
You gave me hope. Thanks
@Aspy68 Could you tell us why you plot for K33s? Do you expect that the next valid format will be K33 and in this case when K32 is no longer valid, you will the the first person to be ready with your plots?
I’ve sorta become personally attached to my K33s now, but the reason I started plotting them and a discussion on relative value of the different plots was had at length.
I ultimately decided against letting madmax save me a month of plotting because I wanted my K33s. They may skip K33s altogether and negate the K33s possible extra value but maybe not.
Plotting 3 parallel K33s is a perfect fit for my hardware and I can pump out four every 24hrs using the GUI. I went with K33s again.
I put the link to our K33, 34, 35 discussion below. You have to read through a fair bit to get to the good answers:
Thanks for the post. Reading now as I have about 50 Tb empty space to fill. May consider K33.
Just looked at that thread again. It is just an argument until around message 38 (mine, lol) and the following sober discussion and some answers … so you can start at message 38 IMOP, lolz!
With XCH price at ~160, and price for 1TB HD space at ~20, it takes about two years to recover just HD cost ($160 USB 8TB HD earns 1XCH in about 2 years).
A lot of us purchased those USB drives. The problem is that those HDs warranty is only 2 years, so assuming that they will last for 2 years, it just recovers the cost invested in it. There is potentially no option to sell those HD at the end of their life for much.
Usually, HDs last for a bit longer than their warranty. However, we are starting to see some Seagate drives failing after three/four months of use. Yes, they can be easily RMA replaced, but they incur some down time, plus some extra plotting cost. At least for me, that means that maybe it is better to go with something like WD Red Plus drives (5 years warranty). Yes, the cost is higher, but not 2x, and they should easily last potentially 3x longer without any issues. Also, seeing those reports of Seagate failing, the obvious question is whether those are just Barracudas or Exoses as well.
So, if you already have your farm, just make sure that you pamper your HDs, to make them last as long as you can. However, be prepared for those replots. One option is to monitor SMART data, and ask for replacement early, before they fail - so you have time to just move your plots to a new drive (such RMA may cost a bit, or it is just a hold on your CC until you ship the old one).
On the other hand, if you are new to chia, or your farm is full, I would rather consider buying XCH instead.
If you buy XCH, you have it day one, when you farm that HD you will have it two years from now. In case the price will go up, maybe a good move would be to sell what you purchased, and then invest in HDs.
This problem is less of an issue with GPU mining, as those cards run for several long years, and as long as they make more money than they draw power, they are a good investment.
So, of course, the main question is whether you believe in chia, and we all here are more or less keeping our fingers crossed to have it be a success. It is just another form of investment.
I like this answer, very understandable
Time is often underestimated in chia farming. You cannot just add farm capacity by buying hardware like in PoW. It takes a lot of time to plot (with a reasonable efficiency and not paying through the nose).
Conversely, the same inertia applies to ramping down your farm. It just doesn’t make sense to shut it down, because it uses so little energy running.
With PoW, you can have a short term strategy: use your equipment when it is profitable and instantly sell the proceeds. The PoST nudges you towards the long game instead.
And when playing the long game, you aim for either of 2 things:
- A great appreciation of the asset so that you can sell it
- An income stream that comes of productively using this asset (that’s called dividends in investment world)
The latter can be enabled by adoption of Chia technology by the business to generate value and produce income to the farmers in a form of transaction fees.
And with the long game, you don’t bother with price fluctuations. Instead looking into fundamentals.
That’s why I don’t want to buy XCH. It is not meant to be a speculative asset! Developers predicted market price of $20 at launch. And instead it succumbed to a speculative mania, a plague in the crypto world these days.
Look up an article about the Hype Cycle. Any new technology has initial hype wave. It helps attract adoption, investments, popularity. Then it may fail (as 80% of all startups - they fail). If it doesn’t fail and the dev team is really onto something, there will be a long boring grind phase. All the hype people wane and capitulate. And then, after a long grind, if the team was indeed onto something, the technology transitions into a productivity plateau. That’s when the real value comes in, and by that time the technology is considered just a utility with an adequate valuation that comes along.
The blockchain technology is a great innovation. It will earn its place in computer science similar to object oriented programming, relational database design, machine learning, distributed computing… the list goes on. Some 50 years from now (or who knows, maybe tech progress accelerates logarithmically?) it will be just a utility like, say, internet connection or satellite communication.
Very well articulated post, and I very much agree with your thought process and outlook.
Thank you for that.
Sadly it’s a tokenomic issue.
There is nothing that can be done with a chia coin at the moment apart from sell it so every farmer is selling what they receive.
However demand is low since there isn’t anything anyone can do with it apart from hold it.
A few developers are working on some really cool things like an nft market place and other cool projects but…
For now if the cost is “to low” (I agree)
The only solution is to not sell.
Hold your coins until they are worth what you think they are worth.
If you want a timeline for a price increase you’ll need either a crystal ball or find a developer doing something that you believe might give chia a real reason to exist and ask when they are releasing their software.
Many other coins have the same issue but they don’t have as much promise of a brighter future so the best anyone can say right now is it’s still early days for chia coin.
Let’s see what 2022 brings.
It seems to me all combined and Chia is not following the crypto or Btc trend because a month ago when Btc reached 50000 chia it took a measly 5% … Chia of 20% and goes up by 5% and they make fun of you
Plenty of coins and tokens that don’t follow the fluctuations of ETH/BTC , I always found for a long time TRX a weird duck in the pound, when others seem to drop that one seems to go up, ATOM is also such one… BTC goes up ATOM dives, BTC down ATOM up… etc
I think it will follow the trend now, Chia hit it’s bottom. We’re in that cycle with BTC and most other crypto’s. I really think we’ll see gains over the next 3 months, how much I don’t know. But ultimately the charts show a gradual decline because miners are selling and exchanging, this happened when crypto crashed and then the pools were released. Retail will come in now and crytpo capital will probably double, I just hope some of this capital will come to Chia.
I guess, the price of Chia is falling down to its next bottom. It will be $100.
What do you think?
That really depends on some of the bigger XCH owners selling their XCH at a specific niveau. All the time when chia regains some value, suddenly it drops - by some massive sale.
If chia.net gains some ground on the banking market with their more energy friendly approach, this could boost chia. But with proove of stake as competitor who knows what will happen. I´m looking closely at the european union that on their own wants to create a digital euro. When states go shopping for a method, thats gonna be interesting
Until then, i just hope, that XCH will climb up at least a bit, like, slightly over 200. That would be nice for the output of my setup.