Okay I am a new farmer here and I will add my 2 cents worth:
Of course most of us get attracted to new projects with the promise of reward, I mean why else would we spend real dollars in hopes of returns in “fairy-dust,” for all we know the Age of Cryptophoria just might be positioned for a massive collapse and nobody ever wants to touch crypto post vaccination era. (Chances of crypto-crash astronomically higher than my winning two simultaneous blocks in 24 hours with my 9 plots).
Why we start to invest? Well tech is cool and anything new tech is cool and we think we’re entering early so we we want to see the project develop and become active participants and so on…
Why the anxiety? We get too focused on ROI and forget to have any fun… You’re in it, play it like an RPG grind, have fun with it, plots in themselves are digital assets, what if few years down the line verified plots start selling like hot cakes? Follow this chain of thought : Chia rush = hdd rush = hdd shortage = hdd inaccessible BUT plot = HDD activity = value preserved in terms of ssd expenditure (semi-conductors are short in supply and you have spent semiconductors to plot - plot in itself is of inherent value which we will realise in near future).
The mistake we make: haste and lack of patience. Hey, I get it chances are diminishing by the minute. But are we taking all metrics into consideration? I think we are leaving a host of disqualification factors aside. So what if the big money has plotted racks upon racks of hhds in data centres? Isn’t the query generated at random? Isn’t the response a close variant of the lookup? How about one of my 9 plots having 15% close match vs a data centre with 0.1% match? How about downtime and network failures? How about my 9 plots being live with 1% close match with a data centre with multiple 99% close matches facing network errors and downtime? How about other variables that exist? I for one refuse to believe the probability counter and push on with my limited disk capacity of handful of terabytes and 3 plot per day generation capacity. Won’t my few plots being live over the decade have a better chance to reap other eventualities over those who give up sooner? So I suggest let’s all be patient for now and see the future together. Of course I’d want your plots gone but I like to generate Karma too, so please, stay. Yes HOME MINERS, I am talking to you, we don’t want to give the bully an easy win. Bitcoin didn’t get to where it is today in a matter of months, it took good part of a decade! And we’re expecting this to be the next big thing - not with a quitter’s attitude I don’t think!
The big guy is not always bad… He’s doing us a favour by quickly burning through the already scarce semiconductors and thereby incrementally increasing the value of the plots. I give you a scenario : SSDs, NVMEs not available anywhere for 6 months(like gfx cards) - go make a plot or… B U Y A P L O T!
I ll paint another picture. You’re sitting in a boat with your fishing pole or two… and there are speed boats with massive nets trying to sweep the lake…what is your strategy for victory here? Did you come out to take all the fish or just the few that will make it a fun trip? Sure the boats are upsetting but isn’t the idea that you just sit there till the fish bites…
There is the easiest solution for those who don’t see the fun of it - sell your HDDs buy Chia and keep it in lock and key for 10 years…
No offence intended to anyone. To those who love the grind, Grind On!
P. S. I don’t intend to join any pools, I will take my chances solo and keep the winnings.