Chia nft plot pool income ? Which is the best pool?

Chia Farming & Harvesting
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If you flip a coin 1000 times in a row and get heads every time your chance of flipping heads on the 1001st flip is still 50/50 despite the odds of flipping heads 1001 times in a row being absurdly low.

Make sense?

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haha yes the statisticians nightmare paradox

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  • A coin flip is a single bit (2 options). A Chia challenge is 256 bits (1.16e77 options) modulo the current difficulty. The chance of generating the same two challenge%difficulty values in a row is much closer to zero than in the case of a coin flip.

  • A coin flip can in theory be repeated an infinite number of times. In contrast to this, the number of all possible Chia plots is a concrete finite number: there are 1.16e77 possible K-32 plots in total. Let’s assume, for simplicity, that exactly one random challenge is generated once per second - then you can store all previous (challenge,outcome) pairs for all the plots physically present on the HDDs of the farming machine in a relatively small key-value database (which grows by 1 pair per second) and then just return “outcome” if the same “challenge” is generated by the Chia network or by a pool again. In the future, if a look into the database finds a match then the farmer wouldn’t have to examine any plot file on the machine. ---- Translated by analogy to coin flips, this would mean that after just a few attempts you don’t have to physically flip the coin anymore because you already have the outcomes of all possible coin flips stored in a cache.

  • In summary: Comparing Chia to coin flipping is misguided. If you want to convince me that you are right then please try harder.

  • Comparing Chia to a gambling machine in order to explain how Chia works is similarly misguided.

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1.16e77

small key-value database

Uh huh.

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That’s a lot of words you used to say “I don’t have a clue what I’m talking about”.

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That is not what Mr. Poisson says, or binomial distribution.

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I would like to see in my pool report how far away my plots are from that number, and I mean both in the main Chia UI, as well as in the pool reports.

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Over a suitable number of equally sized sequences of events you would expect the number of wins to follow a poisson distribution, but that’s not the same point at all.

Predicting the number or timing of wins in the next ‘half’ of the very short and arbitrarily selected sequence of events that you are currently in is not possible based on information about the first half.

Ad absurdum, the probabilities wouldn’t change if you were able to magically instantly generate entirely different plots before every challenge, I hope we all agree that previous outcomes couldn’t affect future outcomes in that scenario?

TLDR:

  • Luck will tend towards 100% eventually :heavy_check_mark:
  • Luck will get closer to 100% in the next x minutes :heavy_multiplication_x:
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Agreed. Although, I would rewrite the second one as

  • Luck is the same for every toss/round :heavy_check_mark:

as it removes any time factor, or toss dependency from the description. Everything else can be drawn from those two lines.

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@storage_jm on the subject of luck and chance to win in Chia

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Excellent way to shut down an argument, lolz! :crazy_face:

I am posting the youtube link to the same as it has the spreadsheets linked.

Thanks for the excellent link!

Chia farming - Am I unlucky or is my farmer broken!? - YouTube

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I believe that this is a semi-official Chia channel. I have already mentioned in another thread that I would like to see that chart implemented in the Pools section of Chia UI.

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I just wrote something else about this. If you want luck to play a factor, join a smaller pool. If you value consistency join a bigger one. But for the love of god learn how probability works, it is possible to get lucky forever. Unlikely, but possible.

Is joining a smaller Chia pool a mistake? - The Chia Plot

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When Software try using randomness in computer it is very suspectible with pseudo random, unless the software interact with “outside data”

So unless someone can explain the methodology of randomness in chia, its better to believe its use pseudo random, thats why in the long run, any pool will be inclined to average reward

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You have succeeded in misinterpreting what I wrote. Congratulations.

I care about complexity, you do not. Mathematical coin flipping (1 bit) is the model with the smallest complexity in probability/statistics. There doesn’t exist anything simpler than coin-flipping. If you hope to convince me by resorting to the simplest model possible, it won’t work.

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Have fun with your complexity! :crazy_face:

Even an incredible video link and spreadsheets can’t slow you guys down.

Why search for more argument when the answers have already been given?

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Thanks. I will.

The linked video is useful. — I don’t understand why you wrote that it is incredible. It’s basic probability/statistics that one can learn in an introductory university course.

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If you took that into course you’d know winning a chia block is an independent trial just like… um… Flipping a coin

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@atomsymbol Restating the problem in terms of coin flips or dice rolls is a simplification, but it’s not an invalid simplification and can make a potentially unintuitive concept easier to grasp. Read this, with particular attention to the “Pool mining myths” section.

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Then you should have known that, in terms of winning Chia the coin flip model is accurate and simple. You should also know that the search for the simplest answer is a basic tenet of mathematics.

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