He is right though. We should really stop feeding you MrSavage aka inapt here, inapt there, inapt everywhere 
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The pre-farm is not for paying expenses and operations. The venture funding rounds that raised $60 million dollars is for paying expenses and operations. Stop it with the FUD.
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As mentioned, the prefarm hasn’t been touched, so isn’t the likely cause of the drop in XCH. And I doubt that operational expenses at Chia Co depend on XCH price.
I’ll say now for the 3rd time in here: The price behavior we’ve seen lately (since the BTC correlation broke) is completely consistent with what we’d expect if an institution with pricing power began accumulating, including the seemingly inexplicable drops and the inability to rally. This would be bullish long-term, but could easily cause more drops first, as they are building their position.
The patterns formed Sep 30 caused me to identify $147-150 as ideal entry range, with a stop below 146. I wish I had acted on it since that level worked beautifully, but being in USA gives me no easy way to trade XCH. We’ve since been back down there twice, and I wouldn’t use that level again. But new levels may form, either higher or lower.
But remember, if indeed this is institutional accumulation (which we won’t know until it’s declared) they will be happy to drive price even lower while they buy up inventory.
Bram said it himself about the pre-farm! FUD? You joking? Seems like some here can only handle positivity. Any open discussions not welcome. Must tow the company line?
This is what Bram said:
*“First, the ambiguity surrounding the prefarm. Instead of just answering straight up that Chia Networks doesnt know what they will use it for, that they don’t want to use it unless absolutely necessary and that they will treat it like a strategic reserve rather than a spendable asset he went into this dance around answering the question – even when given multiple opportunities to answer. He said at one point that they would possibly lend it out, which I assume means like a central bank but could mean to their buddies.”
Is the forum a collection of people who can’t openly discuss Chia unless it’s all positivity? Any negativity is trolling? What a farce.
The pre-farm is a “strategic reserve” according to Bram. So I stand by my point that all the value has been dropping, so too has the strategic reserve. This is not a positive development.
I get that some here went to Best Buy and purchased new gear and shudder at any talk about reality or forecasts. Insulting people for trying to discuss trends and forecasts is pretty much the definition of coward in my books. You end up with a collection of apologists living outside of reality because it’s so scary in the real world.
I also think it’s misguided to think Chia is somehow different regarding the ebbs and flows. I’ve been watching this on a regular basis for the past 6 months or more. Go ahead and check the BTC falls and you will see Chia following the same patterns. Up until recently Chia would get some increase when BTC bounced back. Not the case right now. It’s flat. If you want to deny what is evident on charts (those don’t lie) then so be it. Again that may speak more to what I’m finding on this forum about being apologists and a “good stories only” group of participants.
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I read that it was to be used to get businesses on board in a way that wouldn’t negatively affect price.
Perhaps that’s what was meant by lending it out
Try taking yes for answer 
I haven’t called you a troll, and I think it is completely fair to discuss why XCH fell out of its correlation with BTC. Particularly since that’s also the topic of this thread.
And I have told you what I think is the explanation based on the very charts you say you’re reading.
BTW, that’s what I do for a living: Read charts to identify trading opportunities; for my own trading and for clients, who pay for my analysis. Tens of thousands of hours of chart studies, over decades, and in many markets. Admittedly not so much in crypto, since my specialty is identifying institutional footprints, which have been rare in crypto until recently. But it’s picking up.
There are no certainties in trading and investing, only probabilities. I’ve told you what I think is the most probable explanation for the divergence you have observed, and which I agree exists.
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Thank you for the respectful conversation. I do appreciate it. I also appreciate you sharing your expertise. I will clarify. I sure hope you are right! I’m invested in Chia so by no means do I want to see this slip anywhere close to $100. So for me, that angle of discussion can certainly hold off for now. I will be happy to post that I was wrong about this.
I guess my main point about the pre-farm was more about it being listed as an asset. The asset was worth much more just a month or two ago. Anyone looking to invest would look at assets and my point is that it’s a quickly depreciating asset. This creates doubt, when Chia needs to instill confidence.
The political aspect of the pre-farm has nothing to do with what I care about. I realize too that this may be nothingburger and it’s much ado about nothing. I hope that’s the case.
In closing, I’m happy to discuss Chia as a whole, with people who want to be respectful about it. Appears there are a few members willing to discuss, and thank you for that.
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Actually the outlines of the business plan are right here, including a lot of info on the intended use of the pre-mine.
https://www.chia.net/assets/Chia-Business-Whitepaper-2021-02-09-v1.0.pdf
Yes there have been some comment about possibilities in distant possible futures where things turn out differently than expected but other than some of this speculation, the Chia team has been very clear: Pre-mine will stay in the company and will not be spent at all.
It would be good if they would lock it down more, either in smart contract or in the actual company rules, notarized and all. For now it’s mostly promises and plans.
Because (angel)investors look at things very differently than you do. In the last round of investments back in March, 60mln USD was collected. The company was valued at that time at $500 million while the pre-mine was “worth” nothing yet, because no price had been set on the market So from that you can clearly determine that the day-to-day value of the pre-mine only has a limited influence on the value investors put on the company. Whether it’s worth 10 billion or 3 billion on paper doesn’t matter much. If you try to sell it it will be worth 0 anyway.
Also it has no immediate effect on the company cashflow, as it is not being used to actually pay the bills or make investments.
The investors care about the value of their shares, a long time from now. Just like many farmers care only about the XCH price 10 years from now.
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This is the most interesting discussion on Chia i’ve found in the last few months. Big thumbs up 
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All good. And I understand!
I don’t presume to know if or how the prefarm could have affected some market participants’ valuation of XCH, except that it doesn’t add to the “float” as long as it’s locked up in the vault - which I believe is still the case.
I understand your point that the prefarm’s diminished value will affect valuation of Chia Co. But the company is still private, we’re not discussing their stock price. And I doubt that diminished value of the prefarm due to the lower XCH price would in turn cause an even lower price of XCH. I hope that sentence made sense. That last one too 
Finally, I need to stress, again, that I am by no means certain that we have seen the floor in XCH. It could fall further because there is no demand (which would be bad). Or it could fall further because there IS demand from institutions who want to accumulate as low as possible. They will defend their positions eventually, once they are loaded up; OR if they are afraid they won’t be able to control it after a breakdown. But in a thin market like XCH that is hardly a concern: I think they would be happy to buy below $100 instead of $150, knowing that driving it back up should be easy; particularly once/if XCH is listed on more exchanges.
Personally I would have no concern with further drops, being just a tiny farmer. But I can definitely understand the pain for all who either bought XCH higher or hold a considerable amount of farmed XCH. Small folks like us cannot control markets, so we need to always have an exit strategy!
With that, I promise to shut up 
Spot on!
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Thank you Voodoo for that excellent detailed explanation. I shall read up on what you’ve provided as well. The more I know the better. It’s a relief in what you’ve said and it makes sense.
And please AnyFarmer, don’t shut up. Share as you will . Discussion is always good I find.
Whether this comes across or not, Chia could be a game changer for me. By no means do I want to think bad thoughts. I had a certain valuation in mind when I bought gear so I’m okay that way. I think when power usage vs. return gets dicey, that is what I am most fearful of.
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And now we have a question, that im interested in:
How many farmers or how much of current netspace is dependent of current price?
I dont plan to sell any xch for a few years, but my 62w will never be a huge financial factor.
I wonder how many big farms out there will be shut down, if price continues to fall.
What are the exchanges that determine XCH market price anyway? Just curious
it’s not only about price fall - many big boys are using OC plots because it makes no financial sense to replot - but if the time come to switch to k33 or k34, they will reconsider price if new replot is even worth it
The exchanges don’t decide. It’s a market price as you suggested, meaning that the market decides.
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K33+ is years down the road, if ever.
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But exchanges ARE the marketplaces where trading occurs. What source do you use to determine what the current price is?
For example, I am a member of Flexpool and when I visit the stats page, it shows certain price of XCH in USD. But this is just a hypothetical price. If you go to certain exchange, you don’t even sell XCH for fiat directly. Someone would buy it with another cryptocurrency convertible to fiat, and then you’d have to do another transaction to sell that other crypto for fiat.
The point is, while XCH is not even tradeable on multiple exchanges, is it’s price even relevant?
Is is tradeable on multiple exchanges.
Yes of course the price is relevant.
If price differs over multiple exchanges arbitrage takes care of that.
Where does x pool pull their price from? Ask x pool.
If you want to sell, you set a price you’re willing to sell for.
If you want to buy, you set a price you’re willing to buy for.
The price listed on the exchanges is what the asset last traded for. The exchange doesn’t determine the price; the people using the exchange do.
It’s really that simple.
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