Consistent Blocks Every 3 Weeks-ish And Then No Block For 9 Weeks +

As the title really. I’m with Space Pool with 4029 plots, almost all are C8 with a few C7 and farming with MM GH. My approx time to win is 3 weeks and until now its very been consistent, have I just been lucky? Some block win times listed below:
06/04/23
28/04/23
13/05/23
15/06/23
And nothing since. I haven’t changed anything in my setup and still receive 100% valid partials. Lookup times are between 0.9 - 4 secs, with most between 1-3 secs.
I guess my main Q is, should I be checking something else in my setup or have I just been unlucky? Any advice will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

with 3 week etw, you can easily go 2 months or more without a blockwin.
The advantage of being in a pool, is that the impact is much less.

I am on 11 days etw now I think and went 5 weeks without block, then 1 week with 3 blocks. I have also seen 2 blocks 1 day apart back when my etw was still almost a month.

As long as the pool is reporting your partials and size correctly, all is well. A pool dashboard is actually the best way to access farm health as far as I know.

This is a nice tool to have a look at ETW

Or this one, where you can simulate blockwin distribution for 1 year or more

2 Likes

Many thanks @Voodoo, I’ll definitely have a look at both of these. Maybe I just needed a little assurance from someone like yourself. Thanks again man :+1:

2 Likes

I’ve got 4224 C7 plots, recently went from 7 July to 6 August between wins, that’s 191% effort, nothing unusual. If you look at pools you can see their effort go up to 600% sometimes, that’s six times longer.

To add, my average effort is 94% over the last 24 wins, and one of those was at 464% effort.

2 Likes

That’s just Chia. I’ve gone 300% to 500% a few times, then get two or three back to back.

1 Like

I had with pool.space consistently 4-6 blocks/month…till Nov 2022…afterwards 0 blocks found, just shared rewards for about a half year…poor luck no?

I went solo, and my profits are back. If you have at least 750TiB, go solo…do not feed parasites :wink:

1 Like

I wish I had 750TiB. Unfortunately, I only have 281TiB. I’m assuming it’s not worth going solo with this. Is there any mechanism to check that your farm is operating correctly other than waiting to find a block if I did? I’m in the process of building a new plotter (HP Z420, 1070, 256GB RAM, 1TB 980 Pro) so I’m ready if Max delivers C15 GH.

The best way to check is by pooling, if the pool is receiving partials, are your average effective size is roughly correct (it does fluctuate), then its all working fine.

Its worth checking the debug logs for errors as well.

Thanks Ronski but I was specifically wanting to know if there were any checking mechanisms for going solo?

You could keep a small proportion of plots on a pool and solo the rest.

2 Likes

You really want pb’s to go solo imo, even with 800tb you can go months with no drop.

Totally expected but why many pool.

proofs’ time ~1s, and of course, rewards - the common check. either get some estimated rewards, or do pooling for awhile…then solo.

I get regular rewards, don’t confuse people by bullshit :wink: So far, I have seen twice lower rewards…compensated next month by extra blocks. Long-term, you will have more rewards than pool.

Each case is unique, thats how randlomness works!

nah that’s how blind faith works, like cults. pure randomness is a non-deterministic chaos which is a unicorn, while blockchain has a NATURE behind its randomness, if you dont get it you should not explain it by simplicity of term “random”, you should say “i have no idea”, otherwise you just misleading your readers with a flood states.

If you dont believe in the randomness in our distribution, and dont realise that causes streaks and dry spells, thats on you.

That explanation is enough for the point i was making, and is true.

computer “randomness” or entropy will be the same for everybody in long-term. The dry spells, may be caused by your Internet provider…faulty HW, incorrect config…and so on, and so on.

Perhaps electronics are also influenced by Moon phases, EMP or humanoid stupidity, who knows.

Unlike the markets where people are “randomly” retarded, and we always make money by “randomness” :wink:

During mining ETC…we had always min. income regurarly…with lucky hits that kids like to talk about…when someone hits 5 blocks in row…at least that is what they claim.

you dont know math, factorial analisis and all, just a stupid happy kid, just enjoy your state it wont last long …

that is why we have normals like you, who know-all, saw-all, and have keys from everything :stuck_out_tongue:

do not forget to tell your mom that evil hajes dares to disagree with you ROFL

I always love people who try to quantify Mother Nature ROFL Ever since math exist, nobody won this game yet ROFL Ever since computers are here, people still losing this game…only thing that changed is how quickly you become poor.

but thanks guys, thanks for your resources you happily move to my accounts.