Did Pool release broke solo farming?

We are big farmer, before the official pool released, we pretty much won a block between 1-3 days, some day even 3 blocks. After the official released of pool and updated code, up until today we haven’t won one block, all the while the net-space is the same and we keep adding more plots with 50 plotters. Anyone one in the community here still win any chia solo farming?

Well, maybe they favor pools because they want to grow the netspace. If pools have higher win rates than solo farmers, more people will join pools. Who knows. I already suspected that they implemented a way to stop multifarming… I have some theories how it was possible for everyone and I had a little luck streak myself when I was testing with it. But sample size is too small not any credible analysis.

This is how stuff works, HPOOL before got all the wins; But solo was 1/2 the space, now there are lots of new pools that are bigger than some whales; So those pools win;
How many PB do you have when you say that your a ‘big farmer’??

In order to win every 1-3 days you need to have 3000TB or 30k plots 3PB are you really that big? Most of the new pools aren’t even that big.

https://www.chiaexplorer.com/charts/xchTib

If you were winning before at 10k plots, you were lucky. Right now to win XCH every 1-3 days you need 30k plots, or 3000TB ($90K USD of HDDS)

We are more than double 30K plots and that is just a fraction of our target.

Yeah, please update us on you stats.

How many days and hours without a win?

Actually, we just won a block not too long ago, but that was a 10 days gap without any win with 75K blocks. The Chia calculator is way off.

30k plots and 10 days without a win would equal 1% probability of happening. In other words, 1 out 100 times until block rewards for you should be 10 days.

I calculated this with 30k plots and 30EiB netspace by using the following spreadsheet*: chia probability of winning - Google Sheets

The best way for you to see if you are “too much unlucky” would be to estimate an average estimated time to win since you started and then calculate the actual time to win (for each block since you started) and average all these out as well. Then you can compare the estimated vs. the actual time to win and draw your conclusions based on this data. With a large enough sample size, your actual time to win should equal the estimated time to win over time.

With that said, I have (and have had for the last two months) 16 days estimated time to win and haven’t won a block for 50 days. The probability of that happening is 5% according to the spreadsheet.

*Video explaining the use of the spreadsheet: Chia farming - Am I unlucky or is my farmer broken!? - YouTube

Thanks for the spread sheet. I will go grow some Chia Pet, hopefully that will turn my luck around.

It would be interesting if you could update us during the upcoming weeks about you “expected” vs “actual” time to win. With the level of “bad luck” that you had lately, it would make sense if you have some more lucky days and weeks ahead of you. See for example the level of luck for each block in space pool https://pool.space/viewallfarmed

Last night we did win 2 more additional blocks, so I guess our bad luck streak is over. So 3 blocks for 10 days, that is about 1.6 Chia a day, which is one chia less per day than what the Chia calculator predicts. We will continue to harvest these OG plots and slowly convert to portable plot for a more predictable earning.

Sounds like a smart move when you have so much $ invested in farming chia at this point. I’m doing the same thing but with my “small” farm of ~4000 OG plots that I replot to pool plots.