Driest period yet

Hey,

I have a solo farmer with 4k+ plots, used to win atleast 2 blocks / month, latest version of Chia, upgraded database and haven’t win a block since September 11 with a estimated to time to win of 12 days. It’s been 83 days since my last win so that makes 7 times over estimate.

I have checked everything, I have chiadog installed. Hdd’s are not sleeping, plots are fine and here is a snapshot of chiadog.

:information_source: Chia DAILY
Hello farmer! :wave: Here’s what happened in the last 1 hours:

Received :shamrock:: 0 XCH
Proofs :receipt:: None
- 0 partials submitted :bookmark_tabs:
- 0 blocks found :package:
Search :mag::
- average: 0.38s over 386 searches
- over 5s: 0 occasions (0.0%)
- over 15s: 0 occasions (0.0%)
Plots :seedling:: 4053
Eligible plots :1st_place_medal:: 7.75 average
Skipped SPs :white_check_mark:: None

If you have any ideas please let me know. Also you can share your driest time also.

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When i had s few more plots, >5k iirc, i went over 2 months without reward, so now i pool.

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I’d say perfectly normal, but at 7 times that’s really out there. I’ve had some really long dry spells, last three wins have all been at less than 100% effort which is unusual for me.

I’m pooling though, have been for a longtime it allows you to see everything is working as expected, and I get a nice steady income.

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Everybody has dry spells, my last block was Nov 4th then Nov 19th

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I finally threw in the towel on solo and joined a pool myself (farm too small). The last farmer to block in our pool just pulled a 650%'er though (3.7PiB farm too) - bad luck does happen.

My suggestion would don’t be a solo farmer.
Pools provide one great benefit, they let you know if your farming is working.
And most have less than a 1% fee.

If you have OG plots, well you’ll have to replot soon anyway.

2 Likes

And when do you think the OG plots will go away?

In 2023 there will be a large profit motive to do so.

Plot compression will be the main motivator.

My take is that MM plotter is already ready (for compressed plots). So, the wait time is solely on Chia upgrading the harvester code, and eventually further delaying to get their plotters to support it as well.

Hi,
could you provide info about your HDD setup.
I just need to know what manufacture is and model numbers.
Thanks.

I agree with @aramis. Conspiracy?

Is ur take on MM plotter sw fact, rumor, or fantasy fiction?

Let’s say that I don’t want to [directly] answer that. But

Maybe you recall what Max wrote on that NoSSD thread about the base compression missing day 1 in Chia release (“a major blunder” - iirc), that was a clear statement that he understood what needs to be done, as well as didn’t think it would take much to implement. Also, as you follow MMX progress, you know both quality and speed of his deliveries.

Also, take a look at this request on MM plotter discussion page - Feature Request: Hellman Attacks · Discussion #371 · madMAx43v3r/chia-plotter · GitHub, and make sure to check the Hellman Example code that Chia first posted about 3 years ago. Sure, that code is not production ready, but it doesn’t claim to be so, it is just a POC code that may as well be written in Perl. It looks like at the time that code was produced and the state of Chia’s code (remember how lame the first plotter was?), the assumption was that it will be a harvester killer (without doing any investigation), thus abandoned.

Those things kind of indicate what Max either intends to do (before MMX mainnet) or rather have already done. Also, if you recall, initially MMX mainnet was targeting September, what suggests (to me) that plotter most likely was either already done at that time, or potentially soon after. The official reason to have that plotter done before mainnet was adding pool support.

Lastly, there was this exchange on Max’s Discord channel:

Oakman

Yesterday at 12:07 PM
Ouuuu…colors :eyes: niceee …but any changes/updates to plotter…speed…compression…reporting​:interrobang:

madMAx43v3r Yesterday at 9:47 PM

you will hear from Chia

On the other hand, Chia needs to 1. modify the base plotter (or dump it all together), 2. modify BB code (both RAM and Disk) and make it production ready, 3. modify the harvester code to compensate for those compressed plots. Not sure about you, but I have not much confidence about how fast those three items can be done to be production ready.

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So you think Max was saying that Max has made a new plotter that will be released via Chia’s next release? Why not his own sw, why Chia?

My understanding is that either MMX still includes some Chia code or is heavily based on it (i.e., plotter / harvester side), so why not to work with Chia and get paid for it. I am not sure whether this is intended, or maybe just temporary (dependence on Chia).

On the other hand, if not MM plotter, maybe we will not be still here (sure, we were all using the OG plotter, but MMX price was 10x higher, and the minute MM was there, we all dumped the OG crap). So, in my opinion, Chia owes him a lot.

Saying that, Chia got $70m VC money, where Max is running potentially low on gas. So, he had 3 options to consider: 1. make it an open source right away (and still run low on gas), 2. go NoSSD route (and have people jump on him for no reason), 3. strike some kind of deal with Chia (improve his gas status :slight_smile: ).

Regardless of that plotter, being in Chia’s shoes, I would give him an offer that he cannot refuse and take over the MMX project to remove potentially the most serious competitor from the field. This is exactly why Chia got that $70m, and I have no doubt that those VC would pay extra to get it done to have a clear field

By the way, the fact that he mentioned Chia in that exchange further supports the notion that compression is already done, as I doubt that Chia would be interested in an incremental change in plot speed (having Harold work for them already).

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I would not like to see that. Genius doesn’t need a committee to make it better. Not to mention their intended purposes are far different.

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That’s my hope as well, but this is only from my perspective.

To do that, the company has to understand what the value of that startup (Max) is and would potentially face the need to have most of the engineering team go (or eng management). Add to that NIH component that has been on display on twitter so many times.

By the way, in Silicon Valley, when startups are being purchased, the most common metric is roughly $3m/person (e.g., you have 10 people, that would be $30, regardless of who are the people). So, you have the baseline that VCs would use to consider MMX being removed from the field. Consider this, and how they handled NoSSD people (“we will look at the code and give you some scraps if we feel like”).

The thing to consider for those VCs is also that seeing how MMX is progressing, I would think that they shit their pants that no other VC is going to step in, and help Max. (Again, you invested in A, since I cannot invest in it anymore, I will find B to invest in. Basically lemmings.)

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I’m going with …Max is not going to be selling out this early testnet stage of his creation.

That’s how I also will roll. Max also already stated that some time ago (I asked about such possibility). We also know more or less how Chia operates. So most likely this is how it will go.

My take is that unless Chia’s VCs step in (highly unlikely), this will not happen. And if they do, hopefully it will be too late.

I didn’t read this thread, but yes, there won’t be any selling out.

4 Likes

Thank you @madMAx43v3r. No need to reply to such question. We will all support any decision you make and will be best for you and your family. We all owe you a lot, not the other way around.

Although would you be able to comment on if and/or when the new plotter will be available (that was actually, the original question in this post)? Also, if you could comment whether it will be GPU assisted (GPU beneficial, but not needed), or rather GPU required?