Estimated Time to Win Explained

Here I’m trying to identify what it means and what it should be. At the same time, some things don’t make sense, as I’m still researching it. Feedback welcomed!

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It feels like the estimates are really off at the moment as the network is exploding in growth. But yeah, basically it’s a lottery, so don’t take that number at face value! Just think… you might get lucky, and the more plots you have, the more lucky you can possibly be…

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You write that, since there are 4608 rewards per day, your daily chance to win (assuming no netspace changes) is your netspace proportion times 4608.

That’s not quite right. Since there are 4608 independent trials each day, we actually have to calculate “chance to win at least once in a day” the same way you calculate “chance to lose 5 days in a row” later on:

1 - ((1 - <YourSize>/<NetSpace>) ^ 4608) = Chance to Win At Least Once In A Day

Which for the numbers you gave (YourSize = 100 TiB, NetSpace = 600 PiB) ends up at 53.6%.

You can get a better estimate by calculating this iteratively instead of at once and increasing the netspace size in your calculations (as well as your share if you’re still adding plots).

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Thank you!

I will say, I’m glad I made an error, because this increases the incidence of people in dry spells.

I’m not glad that I have to rewrite most of it, haha.

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I’d really prefer the % chance to win each day then when it’s more than 50% switch to per hour.