Expected time to win

Chia Farming & Harvesting
1

Is “Expected time to win” based on actual network space or estimated?

2

My understanding is that network size is always an estimate, based on the difficulty. So it should be a pretty good estimate, but it’s an estimate.

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I’m down to 1 month, 3 weeks now so hoping for a win soon at the rate I’m plotting. Managed 48 plots yesterday. All speculative of course

4

I think this video by storage_jm may be useful to you:

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i have multiple full nodes all doing plotting and farming. the expected time to win is super high on all of them, but i’m guessing that it doesnt matter if you have one farmer, farming all the plots, or multiple full node farmers, farming the plots individually right? odd’s are the same overall, but each node doesnt know you have a better chance as its not aware of the other farmers/nodes?

i’ve read on here a few times that multiple full nodes arent the best (probably due to the fact you can only do one NAT on a home public IP address to a single node, so the other nodes dont sync as well (and you lose farming time?)…

am i right in the above assesment do you know? i’m pretty new to this… only started last week.

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I think that estimated time is purely speculative. I won 2 XCH 2 weeks in with about 20 plots. I don’t expect to see anymore… At all. But if I do, It will be a happy surprise.

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at the very least it is recommended that you disable upnp on all but one node.
You should look around, there are some guides on how to setup a remote harvester.

Chance wise, yes it shouldn’t matter

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8

Thanks for the confirmation.

Yes remote harvesters are probably going to happen at some point but right now still getting the whole rig up and running is proving taxing, so full node install is easier.

20plots and a win? Wow, from what I’ve read that’s a lottery winning odds. Some YouTubers are giving up after hundreds of plots and claiming the whole thing is a scam… I think once pooling is enabled it’ll really help the small miners.

Good luck all.

9

Yeah this is just the problem with chance calculations and predictions based on them.
I’ve seen plenty of people with 1000+ plots and no XCH, and also people with just a hand full of plots winning a block.

The problem is that even if you have a fairly good chance of winning, let’s say 30% chance to win one or more blocks in a week time, this still means you have a 70% chance of winning 0 blocks every week.

Does not winning for 5 weeks in a row increase your chance to win in week 6?
If you throw a coin 5 times and it comes up heads every time, will the sixth throw have more chance to be tails, or is it still 50/50?

I do believe these are questions philosophers and mathematicians are still fighting over :laughing:

Statistically, if you wait long enough it will all even out but by that time you might need therapy

10

Each draw is independent and memory-less.
You have exactly the same chance winning the next XCH whether you haven’t won the last 10.000 times or when you’ve won all 6 of last XCH.
The expectation is just a probability over the aggregate number of tries.

11

The probability to win given a period of time though is an important element to any farmer because it can be an indication whether you have a problem with your farm or not.

This is very useful: Win Probability Calculator

What I do, is I start with a given period - say 10 days ago and use how many plots I had AT THAT time, and I use CURRENT netspace to get a win probability. If I should have won a block during that time, but haven’t, then my assumption is that there’s something wrong with my farm.

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There is no ‘should have’, just a probability distribution. You could say it’s “unlikely” if you hit a certain percentile, say 0,1% on a 0 win outcome but that still means that out of every 1.000 people with your exact same setup there’s still going to be one with nothing.

For example using your method. If you had 100 TiB farming 10 days ago, then at today’s 8.66 EiB, you would have had a 21% chance of not having seen a single win. To get that into the 1/100 territory, you would have had to have 300 TiB 10 days ago, and even so you could just have been that unlucky one in a hundred guy running a perfect 300 TiB setup without any wins.