It looks like Flex luck is going down to drain in the past couple of days. Looking at their block page, I have two questions.
The first is of course what is happening right now. The last block took 4:44 (four hours, 55 minutes) instead of average / expected 20 minutes. That is 15x behind the schedule (likelihood of that is basically zilch). The previous is not that far behind - 2:41 (8x behind), few previous blocks are in 1 or 2 hours range (3x or more). On the other hand, there is not that many as expected or better to compensate for those delays (for the past two/three days). Comparing that to Space pool, their number of blocks found each day is fairly consistent and there are no such drops in the past few days, rather to the contrary, today they are above average. Sure, Space is 10x bigger, but this is not waiting for 1 block over 4 months, but rather instead of getting around 70+ blocks per day, it is less than 30. Also, comparing that with OpenChia pool, they also don’t have such decline in the past few days, and they are 1/10th of Flex, so should have more fluctuations.
The second question is about consistency over longer periods. Space is maybe not so much flat, but rather with small variance (less than 5% on average, with only 1 outlier over 10% over the past month. On the other hand, Flex has 20-30% jumps all over the last month. Sure, OpenChia fluctuates a bit more, but their pool is only around 50 PB, so on average 8 blocks or so per day, so just shifting one block around midnight shows as a decent jump.
And I don’t think this is related to Flex’s bigger farms having problems. I went through top 10 list, and there are no drops in farm sizes, nor increased number of stales in their collected points, all are basically flat as it can possibly be.
Anyone else is seeing their earnings dropped for the past few days?