Great video explaining how probabilities of winning a block actually work, and what to look for in case you think farming isn’t working

@storage_jm published an absolutely awesome video that everyone should watch!


I would really like to see the graph in that spreadsheet with the following:

  • 100 TiB farmed.
  • 1 day time farming.
  • Netspace at 250, 500, 1000, 2500, 5000 PiB.

I think the basic explanation is useful, but I’m not sure if it’s a good representation of your real chances of winning unless you’re plotting at the exact pace of the netspace growth. Seeing 5 graphs with the netspace growing and a fixed farm size would help to imagine what the graph would look as time goes on.

The example at 5:30 showing 5 days farming isn’t realistic because in 2 days the netspace will be much larger and the graph will shift making your odds of winning much smaller. The formula to figure out your real odds of winning without matching netspace growth is going to be much more complex. Does anyone know how to figure that out?

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Here is a great tool from Chia.Garden very similar to the one from @storage_jm :

(thanks @Alex)


sorry for the crappy audio quality, was testing some new mic settings (and forgot to record audio the entire first run of the video). So for longer periods of time I have a netspace model that I use in similar fashion to, I just sent them my model to see if we can come up with something…who knows that is going to happen with price (these things break all models)


We should first model how these things break models :laughing:


Could you share the link to the spreadsheet that was in the video?

@storage_jm do you have that link handy?

good old sheets