How to make real money with Chia

Not sure if anyone noticed how the crypto world is doing right now. Do you think Chia on its own is going to buck the trend and going to shoot up in value? Is that not rather grandiose thinking?

At this point it appears GPU plotting is coming and the official Chia plotting might be making a change so that new plots could be 20%+ more profitable.

I ask myself on a daily basis about how to make more money on this Chia venture. If I look at my drives currently, if I say if I sold that drive for $50 today, how long would that drive take to make $50 in Chia? Can you make more money, and faster by selling off your assets rather than running a farm based on fallacy?

Really this comes down to whether you have your rose colored glasses on or not. I’m not sure why anyone would think that Chia is going to be this one hero that is going to overtake ETH or even get to the #3 spot in terms of value amidst this trend. I think that is called living in denial. Chia will be lumped in with everything else.

Sure you could say that drive could be earning pennies now but some day those pennies magically turn into $$$. I feel bad for you. The fact is you should consider that drive is a $50 bill that you could cash out. Go ahead and look at that $50 for selling the asset now vs. how long you have to farm that drive to make that amount of money.

I’m in this to make money. If the wiser choice is looking at my hardware and picking items to sell off because that is how I make money? I’d say smart move. Maybe last year we could be excused for wishful thinking. Chia is crypto. Just like Amazon is a company. The market is a whole. It goes up and it goes down. There many be a few companies that show more promise when the market it down, but when the markets are sucking? The markets are sucking. If crypto is sucking? They are all sucking. That is my main point here.

One other note because it’s relevant. Obviously the Chia price is being manipulated. Around that $30. Whoever is involved in that, clearly wants $30 to be the bottom. This is why Chia is rising higher than ever in comparison to the other cryptos. It’s not a natural phenomenon. Chia is rising when all others are falling. I think that’s fake. It’s why I insist that cashing out is not a bad option.

If I see a $50 bill sitting there, or I see a trail of pennies that I can bend down and pick up, but I must follow the trails for miles and miles (a journey of a year or more) in order to accumulate more than that $50 bill that I could have simply picked up? Easy choice. Sure, that trail of pennies might have a 10lb gold bar at the end of it. Or maybe it won’t.

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so… What is your point?
You wanna sell? Sell.

You wanna make money? There is your answer:

I really dont know what to take off off your post. As it appears to me, you are one of the folks who thought this is a get rich quich scheme and now complaining.

Have I lost money with hardware?
Yes, but not with chia.

Does it hurt?
Yes

Do I have to cut costs on my Company?
Yes

Will it be fatal?
No, because I managed my risks. Its uncomfortable if you have to shrink but my chia farm stays. Still expanding. Spitting money every day, every hour, every minute. Albeit little, its getting more. Every day, every week.

Regarding your manipulated price claims:
May be, may not be. Counter question:
Can you prove it? And can you name a single stock where that is not the case?

What I see is that we are gathering new interest and newcomers in the forum. Even still, despite the situation. We will see where the journey goes.

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I did the opposite of most people. I didn’t invest dumb. You disregard drive longevity and pretend that your drives can farm forever and that they can actually make money during your lifetime (or theirs). Big assumption I would say.

Not sure if you’ve considered that if you’ve plotted a lot already, you will be 20% less profitable than me who starts plotting with the improvements right around the corner. A wise business always changes with the times. Replotting on those drives? Want to bag them even more, reducing their lifespan even more?

If you see newcomers? Where are thou? Check guides etc. Everything is dated around June 2021. There is no real new anything.

I think the key takeaway? Living in a life of fallacy and denial.

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lol, you are a savage, say you dont invest dumb but you do invest into this so called stupid project :smiley:

as for dive livespan: I expect 5-10 years of lifespan.

Documentation: Depends on where you look at. you find newer bits and older bits. But the documentation is not what indicates new users (no clue where you rugpulled this association)
Im taking that on forum activity, what is beeing asked etc.

Technically, you put yourself up as a newcomer here as well:

Don’t agree with all, however there’s fact and some uncommon sense in ur arguments.

It would be nice to know the future … but that is not how the world works.

These times make one wonder … “What’s the point here… are we all just chasing windmills??”

After all, we didn’t invent Chia … it’s an idea, a concept. No reason it has to work as planned/hoped.

Picking up only pennies now …maybe waiting for dollars is either stupid or clever, take ur pick.

Me?..I’m over Chia plotting/spending, just farming…but it’s past being ‘fun’, now just a game of patience.

It’s very tempting to chip away at the farm, hardware needs to be productive or it’s a space heater.

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Absolutely agreed on this point. I can only speculate at the motive, but it has been like this at least since NFTs came online (price pumped a bit and has been hovering ever since). Whatever the reason, those that are in in for mining (farming) profits, rejoice, as this makes it very easy to predict your monthly income. For those making a spec play I don’t know if this helps - you still need a pump at some point to unload bags.

I never said I made bad investments with Chia. Not like a lot of people, thankfully. ETH and GPUs were destined to die so Chia was going to be the only possible alternative in my mind.

To me it has been zero risk. It’s because I’m not married to keeping my hardware. It’s all an asset that was acquired at very reasonable costs. Not everyone in the same boat. However, it’s called cutting your loses.

Everyone obviously has their own levels of hopium. I’m just asking the question, if you could take $50 vs. a few pennies on a daily basis in the midst of a market downturn, what do you do?

There is not a small issue with crypto. It’s actually a core issue. Regulation doesn’t come overnight. There will be a lot of squabbles. Crypto will emerge stronger but you think that’s in the next 6 months? A year? Oh right. Chia is going to thrust to the moon in the middle of all this.

Business is pretty basic. Everyone can decide on their own obviously. Few people “get out” of the game. Expansion is the only way. I guess I have the luxury of acquiring hardware that is not yet in service. Which was a smart business move in a sense because I can decide if making money now is better than where Chia is at and where the crypto market is at. Additionally, with 20%+ more profit on the same space coming soon, I lucked out in a sense also by keeping some hardware out of service.

I guess I’m a bit dumbfounded that people are not following crypto trends. This is about as profound a shift as their can be. FTX is like the straw that broke the camels back. Credibility in the entire space is in question. And yes, that matters even for Chia. This grandiose thinking that Chia isn’t like other crypto? Sure they do things different. BUT THEY CANNOT CHANGE PUBLIC PERCEPTION. Ego or not. Believe or not. The Chia founders can not change what the public thinks about crypto! O’Leary has damaged his reputation. Cuban has unfollowed every crypto that he was following. Means nothing does it?

Edit: I will just add something else. If making back your money in a business is so far off, maybe it’s just not a great business to be in. I realize Chia may become something. I wish that to be true like everyone here. I’m not losing sight of that. Chia farming is fun. Not denying that fact. I’m just saying that the argument usually is whether you take money now, or you cash in later on your investment. The challenge with crypto vs. most businesses, we build out our hardware on pure speculation. A restaurant has real customers. It’s real. Those people exist. A $100 XCH doesn’t exist. A $200 XCH doesn’t exist. It might. Yes. Maybe. But with what’s happened, the hope seems pushed even farther away.

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No doubt - I’m not interested in keeping coins on exchanges, and I’m not interested in bridges or wrapped coins until they (devs in general) get the scams and hacks under control. If anyone hasn’t checked it out yet, there’s a pretty great blog on all of this chaos if you want to follow the carnage: https://web3isgoinggreat.com/

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I will also note that Bram back last year was very dismissive about coin value and the fluctuations that occur. Yesterday ETH was near sub $1,000. Think about that! Yes someone is dumping ETH. However BTC, the profitability has plummeted. If ever there was a time for reflection and recalibrating, I guess I’m saying now might be the time. These are no small issues. Chia has a bloated staff. Sure they hired the best of the best and are geared up to be the top dog. But sustaining what you have in the midst of an absolute storm of this magnitude? It will be interesting. I still hope a Chia for the win, but I’m about making money. If that comes the way of selling drives? So be it. I can always replace drives!

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One small comment re:that and a pet peeve of mine. If they haired the ‘Best of the Best’ why then is Bladebit languishing with little to no development? Worse some of the release versions simply did not work AT ALL on some OSs? I’m speaking of Bladebit Disk V2 and Windows. Beyond that, where are the upgrades that allow plotting other than K32 ??? Can it be that the ‘Best of the Best’ is confounded by making that work, or even if to release alpha software?

And don’t even get me started on plot compression, a fairy tale if there ever was one.

Perhaps they have given up … or don’t care … or don’t really have the best of the best ?

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At current chia coin price, it is $4500 earning a year with 1PB farm.

Right now for me, building a 1PB farm for $10,000 could be hard. For $12,000 is easy.

I have been doing Chia for almost 2 years. I had some DOA (dead on arrival) hard drives. But if the hard drive worked on day one it is still working now. Most of my hard drives are used. Maybe after 3 years I will see more and more dead hard drives.

So, dead hard drive replacement is the cost. Electricity is the cost. I would say the net return is about 20%.

Of course, figuring out how things work is the cost. High power computer for plotting is the cost. But these are also fun factors.

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They are a VC founded company, as such you need to consider that as well. VCs have only one goal - company exit, and everything else is just a supporting stuff (they cash out at that point and move on to another startup). The way company was sold to VCs (based on their white paper) is that they projected that promising IPO will be feasible given that XCH price will reach $20. As we are in $30s right now, that basically covers that. The other part is the network size. With roughly 100k nodes the network is robust enough to handle some collateral damage - thus not much focus on having stable releases. So, the only focus right now is to potentially work on the banking side and preparing company for the IPO. This is shown by what people they hire - a top heavy startup with business focus primarily (not engineering). So, those are the reasons for me that explain what you described or are roots of this issue.

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Interesting thoughts and good reading. Thanks for sharing.

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Ummmm… if XCH isn’t a security, what matter is it that XCH be any particular price? Are they giving pre-mine XCH to VCs to cash out after some IPO or IPO+ lockup?

The IPO price is partially based on XCH price and partially what is on the napkin (future growth). So, sure the higher the price there is a potential for a higher IPO offering. Although, as the correlation doesn’t need to be linear, it may be viewed as there is a soft ceiling there, so at some point it may not matter, or will be a super growth (but in this case getting to that level looks like may not be possible).

I doubt VCs got any XCH. They basically run a lending company. Give you some money, expect returns of x times, and that’s it. After the IPO, they are trading right away, where company people are locked out for about 6 months (so they don’t compete with VCs selling their shares). Whether the company survives after the exit, that is not their business, rather eventually the next round investors. They may not be prepared to handle XCH from book keeping reasons (potentially one of the first such company for most of VCs).

Oh, you can look at XCH price and network size as confirmation of how business is doing. So, as long as it meets what was in the business plan when VCs invested, all is good.

Basically, with IPO tech companies are selling future (napkin drawings), not really what they have at the moment on hand.

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So we are simply waiting for the VCs to dump their IPO shares, further eroding any perceived value in the company’s shares or XCH. Gee… I can’t wait.

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dont make the foolish assumption that you can predict future prices from past prices.

That is a question which is not easily answered.
It is largely dependent on the financial situaton of somebody. If someone needs the money, he’d likely sell the disks.
For me personally, where I live, $50 gives 1-3 Meals. Not exactly something worth considering selling off, while it earns more money to do something else in the same time.
→ keep it running.

I really dont get, where you are pulling these statements from. Why does one singular crypto be the only one? There are different usecases, capabilities, purposes.
How for example would chia be in competition with Filecoin??
And even if it would, there is space for coexistence.
Lets look at markets outside the crypto space for example:
Cars: Many car manufacturers exist. There is no single car brand.
Hotels: Many Hotel chains exist. There is no single Hotel chain.
Food: Many Manufacturers and restaurants exist. There is no single source.
Superglue: There are many Bands Marketing Superglue. There is not only 1 Brand.
Bycicles: There are lutterally hundreds of bycicle brands.
Cloting, shoes, name it.
Tell me why this should be different in the crypto space.

Thats exactly what they do. They follow the trend. When prices are up, they buy. When prices are down, they sell. When the Hype is real, they invest. When nobody touches crypto with a tweezer, they sell their hardware. I try to achieve the opposite.

correct. But what they can do is to focus on doing what needs to be done. Trying to change something which you cant change is stupid.

It is always a stupid decision to try to earn the money back. It often involves exposing way more risk than tolerable in a desperate attempt to get back what has been lost. Gamblers suffer from this effect greatly in the casinos. The table has to be seen as a new situation every time. What is the situation right now? What is the best course of action or plan that you can come up with right now?
What was in the past does not matter. Because you cannot change it. Holding on to what was in the Past is a fatal mistake.
There is no such thing as holding out. Would you buy your gear (at current prices) right now? Today? If not, then you are likely in the wrong position.
This is the same for stocks. There is no “Hold” recommendation. You either would buy the same amount of stock today (then you “hold”). Or you wouldnt. Then you sell.
For me, I’m still expanding my farm. So I buy/hold or whatever you want to call it.

I am measuring the performance of the project in progress a little differently:

  • Is the project still under active development?
  • Are features beeing implemented, which do make a difference for the average user?
  • Are bugs beeing fixed or addressed?
  • Can you reach the company or devs and can they actually provide you with an information about your problem?

As of right now, all of these points are a yes, which is a good indicator for me. I do not primairly measure performance by the market price. The market price will follow performance in the long run. Not vice versa.
If I see that any of these Points plummit, thats when all my alarm bells start to ring.

I strongly believe that it is not nessessary to have the best of the best. Whats most important is a steady progression. Even if it is slow(er than others).
From my business I have also learned that there is no 100% solutions and there will likely never be.
It is impossible to fullfill 100%. Perfectionism is the biggest enemy of perfection.
What is relevant is to put the focus on the right things and fix the right things.
The right thing is usually what can be identified as a bottleneck.
Suppose you have a 3 lane road with a conjunction to one lane at some point. Its nonsense to expand the 3 Lanes to 4. What you really need to do is to expand the conjunction to 3 Lanes.
As of right now, what I believe is the core bottleneck is:
a) reliability of the client
b) simplicity of use so that everyone without deep technical knowledge could use it, draft an nf or what not

usually the critical phase is the first year in service as well as later periods, when the HDD approaches its target lifetime. Luckylie all drive manufacturers I know give at least 5 years warranty so one can usually expect drives to hold a long time.
A common replacement pattern in IT is to run a system (server) for up to 5 Years. The systems would likely hold much longer (which I have seen in most cases right now) but
a) newer systems are likely gonna be way faster
b) a company can absolutely not afford a critical systems failure at any cost. Predictive maintenance.
Thankfully farming chia does not pose any critical system failure when a farming harddrive dies. It can just be run until its dead and be replaced thereafter. Its a consumable. A tool rather than a storage of precious company data.

The main risk is that the disk is is simply made obsolete by newer systems.
Just as an example of that: My private FileServer started throwing out some harddisk errors (after 10 years of 24/7 service).
I built it in my apprenticeship. I replaced it with a newer system. The drive likely could be farmed on still, but 1 TB are simply outdated.
Along with it, I decommissioned a 2TB and a 4 TB disk which I added to my FileServer later. They are still totally fine, but I upgraded my storage space 25 TB redundant. No use for my riggs, I start my riggs at 10 tib (only if I can get an insanely cheap price) 8 TB drives were shipped first in 2014. That would have given you a use of 8 years before becoming obsolete.
Remember above: Would you buy the same gear for the current (secondhand) price? No? → replace it.

im plotting on the rigs, so no extra plotter hardware.

there we go. follow the money. There might be your market manipulations @MisterSavage

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Nah :slight_smile:

Early VCs do need to dump their shares, as that is their business model. The only way for them to do that is if there is anyone out there willing to buy. This is where other investors came in (e.g., expansion VCs, “normal” investor / speculators). This is exactly where the napkin kicks in. So, I would really not worry about that part as that is a standard process.

Also, for VCs an exit is a must, whether it brings any income or not (to close the book on that investment).

On the other hand, when employees start dumping their shares and jumping ship that is the part that may be telling. Usually, the vesting period is from 1 to 4 years, so those that are fully vested and are not given new stock options may consider a switch.

For the company exit / IPO has few roles. Sure, one of the biggest is some people egos, to put an IPO on their resume. For some is to dump their shares and go to another pre-IPO startup to try to repeat the process. For the company, it means money for some starving projects (e.g., engineering). To me, there is a difference between a starving project (e.g., a not well funded engineering group) and mismanaged project (e.g., engineering project that goes sideways with bloated features, and crashes everywhere with every release). Throwing money on mismanaged projects is not really fixing anything, as fixes are easy even when project is underfunded.

I have recently seen logs from v1.6.1, and it was really a horror. Plenty of exceptions, … For Python, adding a catch/try/explain really takes just 3 lines of code (say 200 chars). Sure, some of those are difficult to catch, but it is really easy to put an ID (12345) in the explain section and give the first person that reported it $50 to close such bug and quickly move on. Having lines that are mislabeled (status says INFO, where explanation shows shit happen) also show how sloppy the process is. Flooding logs with garbage without any rate control is another thing. Those log levels should really be ERROR / WARNING / USER / ENG, and us users should not see engineering shit in those logs, only things that are easy to catch and report back.

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To answer one question at the moment regarding being different, it’s like a financial market. When things are up, people are investing. Alt coins. You can see whether those go up and down together. Yes, they do. ETH goes up and down with BTC. Chia is not like a business. It’s like a commodity. But markets aren’t my thing. I play with computers. I would say Chia is shackled with the other alt coins whether they like it or not. Sure anything is possible. A first time for everything is possible. This isn’t Toyota vs. Honda. It’s like car manufacturers vs. widget manufacturers. Industry vs. industry. A few might gain sales in a slow market but most will suck all at the same time or thrive all at the same time. I could get hit by a bus tomorrow. Chia could go to the moon when all other crypto is in the toilet. I remain skeptical of Chia just like anything else that is unproven and built on promise and great ideas. I’m a believer but I’m not a sucker either.

Well when people like Kevin O’Leary says “never again” and Cuban is showing indicators that crypto is in a funk? Those are big hitters and those guy are not anomalies. They are probably indicators of the wider audience. So when IPO is mentioned or a goal? When being taken seriously is a goal? Somebody is going to have to stick their neck out. Risk some bad PR. Be assured that O’Leary depends on his reputation. I know he believes in crypto but he is deep in the mud right now. He wants regulation. My only point really is that regulation is not fast. This seemingly is what Chia will need in place before it can really thrive. So it’s a question of what participants now think. Cause for hesitation?

And I would expanding the farm but it doesn’t make sense when a more storage efficient (and plotting mechanism) appear to be close. I’m hedging my bets that it’s coming sooner or later. I’m making up the loses by finding buyers for hard drives. So I’m making money in the meantime doing something else while I wait this out.

(reading, so replying in a bit to other commentary)

The only viable way to maximize your money is to sell the HDD’s and buy XCH with the money. There is no other way you can make more money.

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