dont make the foolish assumption that you can predict future prices from past prices.
That is a question which is not easily answered.
It is largely dependent on the financial situaton of somebody. If someone needs the money, he’d likely sell the disks.
For me personally, where I live, $50 gives 1-3 Meals. Not exactly something worth considering selling off, while it earns more money to do something else in the same time.
→ keep it running.
I really dont get, where you are pulling these statements from. Why does one singular crypto be the only one? There are different usecases, capabilities, purposes.
How for example would chia be in competition with Filecoin??
And even if it would, there is space for coexistence.
Lets look at markets outside the crypto space for example:
Cars: Many car manufacturers exist. There is no single car brand.
Hotels: Many Hotel chains exist. There is no single Hotel chain.
Food: Many Manufacturers and restaurants exist. There is no single source.
Superglue: There are many Bands Marketing Superglue. There is not only 1 Brand.
Bycicles: There are lutterally hundreds of bycicle brands.
Cloting, shoes, name it.
Tell me why this should be different in the crypto space.
Thats exactly what they do. They follow the trend. When prices are up, they buy. When prices are down, they sell. When the Hype is real, they invest. When nobody touches crypto with a tweezer, they sell their hardware. I try to achieve the opposite.
correct. But what they can do is to focus on doing what needs to be done. Trying to change something which you cant change is stupid.
It is always a stupid decision to try to earn the money back. It often involves exposing way more risk than tolerable in a desperate attempt to get back what has been lost. Gamblers suffer from this effect greatly in the casinos. The table has to be seen as a new situation every time. What is the situation right now? What is the best course of action or plan that you can come up with right now?
What was in the past does not matter. Because you cannot change it. Holding on to what was in the Past is a fatal mistake.
There is no such thing as holding out. Would you buy your gear (at current prices) right now? Today? If not, then you are likely in the wrong position.
This is the same for stocks. There is no “Hold” recommendation. You either would buy the same amount of stock today (then you “hold”). Or you wouldnt. Then you sell.
For me, I’m still expanding my farm. So I buy/hold or whatever you want to call it.
I am measuring the performance of the project in progress a little differently:
- Is the project still under active development?
- Are features beeing implemented, which do make a difference for the average user?
- Are bugs beeing fixed or addressed?
- Can you reach the company or devs and can they actually provide you with an information about your problem?
As of right now, all of these points are a yes, which is a good indicator for me. I do not primairly measure performance by the market price. The market price will follow performance in the long run. Not vice versa.
If I see that any of these Points plummit, thats when all my alarm bells start to ring.
I strongly believe that it is not nessessary to have the best of the best. Whats most important is a steady progression. Even if it is slow(er than others).
From my business I have also learned that there is no 100% solutions and there will likely never be.
It is impossible to fullfill 100%. Perfectionism is the biggest enemy of perfection.
What is relevant is to put the focus on the right things and fix the right things.
The right thing is usually what can be identified as a bottleneck.
Suppose you have a 3 lane road with a conjunction to one lane at some point. Its nonsense to expand the 3 Lanes to 4. What you really need to do is to expand the conjunction to 3 Lanes.
As of right now, what I believe is the core bottleneck is:
a) reliability of the client
b) simplicity of use so that everyone without deep technical knowledge could use it, draft an nf or what not
usually the critical phase is the first year in service as well as later periods, when the HDD approaches its target lifetime. Luckylie all drive manufacturers I know give at least 5 years warranty so one can usually expect drives to hold a long time.
A common replacement pattern in IT is to run a system (server) for up to 5 Years. The systems would likely hold much longer (which I have seen in most cases right now) but
a) newer systems are likely gonna be way faster
b) a company can absolutely not afford a critical systems failure at any cost. Predictive maintenance.
Thankfully farming chia does not pose any critical system failure when a farming harddrive dies. It can just be run until its dead and be replaced thereafter. Its a consumable. A tool rather than a storage of precious company data.
The main risk is that the disk is is simply made obsolete by newer systems.
Just as an example of that: My private FileServer started throwing out some harddisk errors (after 10 years of 24/7 service).
I built it in my apprenticeship. I replaced it with a newer system. The drive likely could be farmed on still, but 1 TB are simply outdated.
Along with it, I decommissioned a 2TB and a 4 TB disk which I added to my FileServer later. They are still totally fine, but I upgraded my storage space 25 TB redundant. No use for my riggs, I start my riggs at 10 tib (only if I can get an insanely cheap price) 8 TB drives were shipped first in 2014. That would have given you a use of 8 years before becoming obsolete.
Remember above: Would you buy the same gear for the current (secondhand) price? No? → replace it.
im plotting on the rigs, so no extra plotter hardware.
there we go. follow the money. There might be your market manipulations @MisterSavage