I do not recommend to invest anything. Money should be invested in values that raise its price, but not decreasing. Its fight value of coin against two enemy, network growth and difficulty. Ofc 1st one will never win, so eventually you lose money instead of stability income, its not good infestations.
At this point, the only investments that stand any chance of making ROI in the chia space are:
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Become a plot seller. Set up a plotting on demand service or a plotting for rent service. There’s already fierce competition though so chances of price erosion are real and more large operators might switch to this model soon.
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Start a pool. Once again, there will be fierce competition so you will have to find a niche. Running a good pool requires great technical skill and economic insights as well as marketing savviness. Unfortunately it is a lemon’s market (customers lack the expertise to distinguish great services from scams). It is also a market with network effects so very capital intensive.
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Just speculate on the chia currency. But study the risks. For a hold strategy the huge premine that was done is your highest risk factor
What you certainly do not want to do anymore at this point if you are in this for the money is buy equipment and just mine. Do your own math, but at this point it looks like a guaranteed loss
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Well, I don’t know what is Chia calculator calculating, but here are my results considering:
- 2 plotting machines - 3K $, 4 TiBs per day plotting speed
- 500 TiBs of memory - around 17K $
- I assumed 20% of real tax, 0.17 cents per kWh and 1% fees on pools
Considering today’s Chia price (~760$) in 24 months horizon it won’t be profitable.
But considering changes in Chia price, here are some sensitivity analysis:
To be on 0 profit after 24 months, Chia price should rise to around 900$. Considering Chia price around 4500$, You can expect 400% ROI and be profitable after 2,78 months. But this is fairly unexpected - maybe after a year Chia will rise that significantly.
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If you ROI plan is hinged on a sharp rise of the chia coin, just buy coins instead of hardware.
Don’t agree with that. If Your goal is to have stable income - buying Chia is the worst thing You can do. Trust me, You will sell it on 2$K level. Then it will rise to 10$K level, You will buy, cuz You missed opportunity, then it will drop to 2$K level again, and You will sell it to cut the losses. That’s how it works for newbies on exchanges. If You don’t have the experience with trading - DON’T DO IT.
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Wether or not you speculate well has nothing to do with how you got the chia. You can buy the chia today and sell at you 4500 price point with 0 other costs, or you can buy a boatload of mostly spinning rust and burn through a pack of energy and end up in the same space (assuming no technical hickups along the way) minus all that investment.
Well, You are definietely not familiar with trading 
That’s not very educational. Just tell us the point where you believe the previous statement is flawed so we can all improve.
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Oh they have said a lot of things, most of which are not true…
Spend it all on used enterprise storage drives then pay for multiple services to make the plots.
You can sink a significant amount into an elaborate plotting setup that will be used once.
Bro, it’s not like = buy x chia → earn y money → be rich. If it would be that simple, everyone could be a millionares.
Go on the market and start trading 10% of Your wealth. You will see how You behave in some kind of situations, trading is all about emotions, nothing more. If You go with 20$K on the market, and You see, that You have Chia worth 60$K now, You will have to decide - what next?
- Well, it was increasing, so let’s stay with that. Then it will drop, and you will lost 50% off Your investment. You will think: okay, there is no hope in this shit. You will sell it with -50% ROI, and then You will be still observing the chia price - it is just our nature - then You will see, that You could have now 200% ROI, but You sold it - fak, I wasted such an opportunity - why did I sell it? You will buy it for next 20$K (10$K You already lost), price will drop to -60%. You will sell it and will say - never again. That’s how it works - all about emotions.
- Okay, let’s sell it and take 200% ROI ! Great. And then You will be of course still observing the Chia price. It will increase again, so You could have now 400% ROI, but You sold it earlier. You will say: fak, I could earn so much more money, let’s invest again, it still great opportunity. You buy, Chia price drops for 80% and You are like - fak it, never again.
These kind of situations occurs ALWAYS, when You start trading. To be honest, I have lost thousands of $ to learn how to trade. And as long as You will be more experienced in that subject, You will see, that You can always be profitable - but You can’t be a millionare in a minute. This is why people go to trading - they want to be a millionares. After 2 years of wasting thousands of $ on trading I have realized that it is not about being millionare in a month, but about passive income. And now I’m very profitable 3rd year in a row. Cause I fully understood, that market doesn’t work like that. I love trading, as long as this is the only thing in the world, that YOU CANNOT LEARN FROM BOOKS.
I remember, when I met investment fund manager, and I remember the situation, when I told him, that here You have my analysis, take a look at this, this shares have to go up now, it comes straight from data and sentiments - very promising company. Then he took the phone and called his broker - “Hey bro, sell 1M shares on that company pls. Now.” - after 3 hours this company share’s price was on the fakin floor. That changed my thinking about market. If You want to feel it - trade, trade, trade. But remember, that You will face with tons of major impact decisions and there is a money to loose.
I am not disputing what you say. It is just if you have X Chia and you feel like playing the market with it, it will not matter whether you got that from buying or from mining, Players gonna play.
I do trade crypto, but as a game (with very low stake). So far made 9% average after fees on every trade, with holds ranging between 30 mins to 14 days, both in up and down markets. And yes, it’s all pump and dump in a rigged Wild West casino. Turtles all the way down.
Brother short sell on BTC would be a win… What do you think? I am speculating 3-5% hike in gold and 5%+ permanent short term dip in crypto Monday morning…
You make some great points but your last paragraph story is unbelievable, I call BS they did not sell a million shares.
Well, it was pence shares (price around 0.1$ per share), so it was a pity transaction for a fund 
Gold rally starts tomorrow - if you haven’t spent that 20k,B U Y G O L D!
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I come from loosing $180,000 usd on bitcoin… so I can understand easily what you describe.
Oh sorry to hear that dude… You can easily play 5k short-sell on ETH or BTC - safer bet is buying gold though, hope you recover in due time…
Reason behind pushing Gold - there has been a massive liquidation in the crypto market so all that money has to go somewhere. NYSE is standing at a premium so that is also risky, USD cash is facing further depreciation vulnerability, so that leaves us with Gold, Silver and precious metals - Gold seemingly having a bigger ticket price seems a better choice for big money in terms of unit purchase, hence Gold! I could be wrong…
brother, I appreciate your comments, I really do, as it you give me another, less optmistic opinon about chia, but I have to ask, why are you replying and participating on the chia forum if you believe it’s better just to buy gold, instead of mining chia?
have you done a bad investment before or lost money on chia?
Thanks in advance!
Chris
I am already in, plotting away on recycled hardware - existing work laptop as plotter, recycled laptop as farmer. You are in a better position than I am because you have your money still - and you can maximise the efficiency of your investment. Being here is helping me learn many things about the crypto universe (I have no faith in it but just because I don’t have faith in it should’nt stop me from experiencing first hand). So I am doing it anyways. I started plotting on 10th of May and just in a matter of few days I was able to pull the trigger on gold purchase… If my gold speculation holds true, I can double down on it… The markets are interconnected because the lifeblood of all markets is USD - if I see USD exit here it has to go somewhere… I am making a deeper study than simply farming XCH, I am a businessman and my loyalty is first towards the capital - to maximise its efficiency - that forces me to study forex - commodities - stock markets and now recently, crypto. Every crisis brings an opportunity, crisis in crypto market will create opportunities elsewhere, I should have liquidity enough to act on information, and fast, I am not rich, but I work very hard to earn my keep, and I try my best to do it as honestly as possible…
Everyone mining chia will loose money for few years to come, that is the way these markets work, get as many “holding” parties stuck for as long as possible and the only way to do that is to forward them a loss so they stick around in hopes of recovery… I participate because every time I say anything, I provide comprehensive reasoning, I am looking for reasonable, a single reasonable response or rebuttal, I have yet to get one…so longer the time that passes that I don’t get logical answers, my skepticism grows stronger, hence help me get stronger theories on investment, does not mean I abandon the experiment - I put money where my mouth is…
I also believe in helping people, if my intentions are clean, Karma will put me out of harm’s way…Already 4 people I know of agreed with my reasoning and purchased their first spot of gold, upon initiation of the rally, they will get a second and a third…I understand that there is competition, but I also believe success like every other resource on earth is meant for sharing, and when you arrive there you should arrive together or you will be very lonely… Nature does not discriminate when it gives us access to water, and air, it didn’t with the food either, it’s men that create desire and competition, but everything should have some measure of ethical course correction, the way I think…
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