I need a pep talk, coach

Still investing in my farm and have not seen a single chia in a couple of weeks, despite my “expected time to win” being down as low as 2 days at one point. At the beginning I was getting a win every few days at most.

Now I’m reading all sorts of FUD about hpool and netspace growth, etc.

It seems like most of the folks on this forum are all like me… having fun learning something new and hopefully not throwing money down the drain. Heck, I can now unwrap a nuc, upgrade the ram, thrown in an nvme temp drive (didn’t even know what this was a month ago) install ubuntu, and be plotting in under 30 minutes, start to finish. I think that’s pretty cool on its own.

But, man, it would be nice to hear some stories about “people like us” (credit to Seth Godin) still winning occasionally.

Will you share your stories of winning a challenge here in this thread to help us all feel the chia love a little bit?

Thanks!

Dan

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With ya. Over 3 weeks with no wins. Was at 4 days expected, now it’s 6 (can’t plot fast enough!)

Logs look good. Only consistently missing sp 64/64 for some reason. Port 8444 is open and I have plenty of full height peers. Getting plenty of plots eligible. Chiadog tells me my average search is 0.11s, so not running into timing issues.

So I think it’s just bad luck, but the odds are well below 1% now. Feels bad…

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It’s been disheartening lately for sure. I’m at 9 days expected, just barely hanging on with net space growth, and haven’t won since April 10th.

I have 40tb more space to fill, which I can do in about 35 days. I probably won’t invest in solo farming beyond that.

I do have hope for pools to fight back against network growth and smooth things out but we need more details first. By the time pools are available, net space is going to be huge

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I think 1 exabyte netspace will probably happen tomorrow or Thursday. I just watched it go from 895 Petabytes to over 900 while typing this!!!

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Although the sun is setting on those easy coins, look at the new dawn ahead. Keep what you have and plan the strategy for pools. These plots should last 5-10 years.

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Yup - my plan once we have the official “Chia Forum Pool” is to shuck all these 12-15TB external drives I have piling up and put them in a tidy little JBOD enclosure hooked up to a NUC and let 'em farm until they drop!.

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The other option is to buy and hold the coins, if farming isn’t working out. I am no fan of Bitcoin, but imagine the people who bought a few hundred bitcoin in the early days… heck, imagine the people who bought it when it was $3k a coin!

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I’m still holding on. I’ve earned zero coins, but I’m still pretty happy. I’ve learned so much PowerShell, Linux, shell scripting, and hardware stuff this past week. I started out at 2 years expected and now I’m at 24 days and it’s going down each day. I really hope I didn’t misconfigure something (@codinghorror your NAS above 5 sec filtering issue freaked me out!)

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I had an aunt that asked me what I thought about Bitcoin when it was $100 because she wanted to buy some. I told her it was a Ponzi scheme based on monopoly money. Thankfully she lives in a different country.

Sorry auntie :frowning:

P.S. I still think there’s a chance I’m right about that.

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Well…you weren’t wrong then :wink: lol

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Hi, how come port 8444 has to be open? I am synced and plots say farming but haven’t opened a port

You don’t have to open it, but it certainly helps to sync faster.

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It is RADICALLY faster. Went from 5-15 minute sync to instant for me. I would say 10x speedup in syncing, easy, when you forward the port.

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Thanks, i’ll setup port forwarding anyway. But no reason why I shouldnt be able to earn chia without adjusting settings? Ive simply installed and started plotting.

New to chia so alot to learn. Not sure what con_chia meant by
Only consistently missing sp 64/64 for some reason
I have plenty of full height peers

If you are in Synced status and Farming Status shows as Farming - you will be earning chia (well, depending on size, luck etc.).

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Where do people think Chia will even out? I know thats an impossible question but it seems to just be getting started. At the moment im 7 months til expected win with just 14 plots. Ive got the tech to go to approx 200 tb at maybe 2tb a day but wondered if I will ever get better win odds or just grow with the network and always now remain around 7 months. 2 weeks ago there was barely 250 pb on the space so the growth is huge.

Not trying to be pessimistic just curious on thoughts.

I think we’ll have a much better idea once a price has been established. At some point it will no longer make financial sense to buy new equipment to farm Chia, but it’s hard to estimate without a price.

This is normal. xxxx

Yes agreed, but regardless of price I wondered if people could ever catch up. Without buying plots or multiple plotting machines inst most people now just keeping up with network growth and not reducing estimated win time?

I just got my machine up and plotting 2 days ago and am chasing the network growth. I’m at 1.4tb with about 66 more the plot, which will take forever at this rate. A bit concerned. haha