Is chia a lottery?

Chia is a lottery to my mind.You may have 2000 plots and win nothing and you may have 20 plots and win 2 chia.The number of tickets(plots) only increses your chances but does not guarantee your win.It’s like in a lottery.Buying 10 000 tickets only increses you chances to win.What do you think of it.


Yes? Does this surprise you? All crypto has been this way forever. At least our lottery tickets get checked 14 times per minute. Better than PoW systems where you have to keep printing the tickets to only get checked once.

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Yes and no.

The lottery (in Canada) guarantees around 70% pay out on investment. Unless you win the lottery, lol, it is a guaranteed loss. You can never expect to turn an ongoing profit buying lottery tickets

Chia plots are lottery tickets with a variable payout based on Chia economics. If you continue to plot enough of them (and expand your storage to match) you should (hopefully) be able to turn an ongoing profit, again based on Chia economics.

Chia farming might be a profitable business. If Chia economics go badly then you can lose your investment. If they do well so will you. As a whole, Chia farming is a risky investment, not a lottery ticket.

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There is one big difference. If you buy a lottery ticket, you win or lose. But with farming there are a lot of variables that the farmer needs to ensure are even working before you are even in the game. You may have those 2000 plots but are you even paying attention to your challenge times, or the fact that your system is missing half of the challenges per day? So a plot is basically a lottery ticket, but if you don’t monitor your farm’s performance it would be like buying 2000 tickets and then just not checking if any of them won. I guarantee that a lot of people out there are not harvesting nearly the capacity of their farm.



Now that I finally have my plotting optimzed and running 24/7 I am shifting my attention to checking plots, challenge times, etc.

Like you, I think that these are far more significant issues than most realize and that many “lottery tickets” are being missed.

Blessed is he who believes.There are persons with more than 1500 plots who have been harvesting for more than 2 months and still get nothing and I know a man who has some 230 plots who has found a proof and has got a reward of 2 chias.

I highly advise running Chiadog. That is the only way I have found to actually report when you are missing challenges altogether. You should be getting a challenge every 6-10 seconds. But the only way to know is either you sit there and watch to make sure you are getting them or run Chiadog. That is how I finally got mine running right. I had no idea my node was lagging and missing challenges until I installed it.

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I see average 5/ minute and is almost consistent if it doesn’t go up, it doesn’t go down - steady five filter passes with upto 4 eligible/190 - is good enough?

Will do.

I have been seeing an appropriate number of successful challenges so am probably good now, but am making this my new top priority anyways.

Better to know what’s up now than find out in three months that I have been grinding uselessly, lolz!

I have challenges every 5-9 seconds and … no penny in my wallet :grinning:

On average, you win one challenge for every 512 challenges issued (I do not mean per minute … challenges are issued constantly). This wins you a lottery ticket. Only then do you get a total chance to win based that key’s plotted space vs total network space.

This reduces everybody’s chance of winning a ticket to 1 in 512.

As everybody has the same chance of winning the challenges, the ticket distribution will also reflect each key’s total plotted space.

Random number theory.Lottery.

Random number theory does not equal lottery.

Chia is in it’s infancy. The prediction accuracy of random number theory becomes more exact the longer you run. You can only expect the win percentage of Chia farmers to be fairly accurate across the user base after a period of years.

The fact that even then there will be people with winning % at each end of the scale is true, but most will sit quite near the average mathematical predictions.

“Please note that the speed of your lookups when passing the plot filter should be below 5 and preferably below 2 seconds. When you actually win a reward, your drive will have to do more lookups than these, so it’s important that the the lookups are happening fast.” FAQ · Chia-Network/chia-blockchain Wiki ( Who have these figures? 1-5 seconds.

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You can see those figures in your debug log as long as your log is set to INFO.

Mine are all under 1 sec

I can see this data on my GUI also :grinning:
My challenges are 8-11 seconds.It was 5-8 seconds some 4 hours ago.I set it to info some 1,5 months ago.

You can’t see how long the challenge took to respond in the GUI. You can see the challenges as they come in. But not the response time. To see that, you need to look in the logs.

Thank you!Let me see.

What does it mean “INFO Duplicate compact proof”