So, what is going in here?
a) Is chia favoring small farmers?
b) Is my pool the luckiest ever for small farmers?
I really do not understand, still I’m glad I got lucky.
PS: I’m still screwed, because since I spend 600 euros on my setup, I need to win 10 more times to breakeven (3 coins), if chia stays at 200 euros that long…
A) Chia doesn’t favour anyone, it’s a lottery, the chance of any farmed plot anywhere getting to solve a block, is the same, so long as it has sufficient minimum internet connectivity and response time to look up the plots.
Having won multiple blocks (6 or so) with flax and now 1 block with chia, I can see contrary to what some people (who haven’t won anything or who are spreading FUD) say, the level of connectivity you need is quite minimal. I am on 20mbits down and 1mbits upstream at present. If you had 1 plot and there were only 4608 total plots being farmed in the world, you should win 1 block per day. Since 4608 blocks are issued per day. Of course, the number of plots you actually have, and that exist in the world and are being farmed are completely different numbers. Even in this scenario it wouldn’t be statistically weird if you went two days without winning a block, or won three blocks in one day. Thats just chance, not luck.
B) No. It has just had a good run. People winning in the casino think they are on a lucky streak. This is psychology, not mathematics. Their luck always runs out, which is why there are very few bankrupt casinos. Your pool has no bearing on your chance of winning. Your plots won twice beating the odds. Think about it this way, if you were solo you would have 4 XCH now. However, before that makes you depressed for what you haven’t got, there is a very real possibility you might win nothing else for 2 years or even longer, assuming you do not expand your farm, without that being statistically odd in any way.
Do you spend 25 kWh per day on electricity? Do you mind if I ask how much fiat currency that is?
Do not worry about long term break even. Most of us can see Chia going way above $200, even if it dips before it gets there. Look what happened today at the suggestion that Litecoin might be accepted in Walmart. Your 0.5XCH might be worth $50000 someday. If it isn’t then you haven’t lost all that much, buy all second-hand equipment, make sure you do not overpay for it, then your only sunk cost is the electricity.
