No actually you don’t know that. You are assuming that the number of eth miners (whatever eth calls them) is a relatively stable number. If the number of eth miners doubles in that year then you won’t see your expected return. The same thing is true for Chia except it is plotted storage space rather than the number of GPUs/ASICs.
The Chia network size will stabilize, or at least no longer follow an exponential growth curve, for no other reason than storage supply vendors will limit its growth. At that point in time predicting ones return should be easier.
I’ve tried to explain it to you. You REFUSE to listen. NOBODY, not even GOD HIMSELF can tell you with absolute certainty what you will get back on your investment.
You are attacking this project with zero understanding of how basic crypto works. I’ve tried to explain it to you. I am defending your baseless attack by imparting knowledge. You refuse to entertain the fact that you are wrong. It’s frustrating to say the least.
My honest strait answer is: because that is not how Chia Network works.
But maybe there’s a chance to create a new coin based on those principles, why not.
Also you have to understand that at a basic level, the uncertainty you hate is also what makes the network secure. If everyone knew when exactly they were going to solve a block then the network would not be secure. There is security in the randomness.
Before you invest in crypto at all, I think it’s important that you understand how it works and why it has been set up in the way that it has. This is especially important when you want to roll up and level an accusation of any crypto being “unfair”. Educate yourself. It’s all on the internet as they say.
I understand the point you trying to make. It’s not about certainty. It’s about doing away with the lottery system and building in a pool functionality without using a pool, and the costs associated with it. PoW doesn’t allow for even distribution of coinbase because there’s no quick way to gauge how much work every miner in the world put into solving a block, so a pool makes sense.
PoS knows how much space every farmer has online to keep the network secure, and it would be very simple to proportion out each coinbase reward to every farmer based on their percentage.
This isn’t about certainty. It’s about how easy it would be to do proportional rewards. And the secondary benefit is that small farmers can see a return much sooner, which they can reinvest to build out their farms which makes the network that much more secure and decentralized.
that 35% netspace of hpool scary, in 2 weeks have grown probably ~10%.
i think is just a matter of time, that number grow even more, they already have the money and and the meanings,
i think their only issue to not grow even more is hdd shortage.
and this brings me more questions…
even with pools, they will not change they business model for sure.
will pools bring more farmers, and more space? making hpool have less netspace?
what can happen if hpoll get 51% of total netspace?
@vavi , I can also see your frustrations, I have only just started to do crypto-farming and so far seeing nothing. The wording of Estimated Time to Win does imply that you are certain to win within that period, the developer may be to word this better.
This article I came across which seems to recognise what you are asking, hope that helps.
@eden188 welcome to crypto
im not frustaded mate, i just like to know every but every detail in things that i will invest my money.
i know from the start that this is based on luck, but from the point of view from a investor you also need to know when you will get returns. and at the moment you can’t say a exact number. the only number you know is your loss.
As i said above, if i invest $xxx, how much days/weeks/months/years i start to have profit? how much time i need to see that the investment i made doesn’t worth the time i spent in it? how much investments i lost because i have that money stopped there.
i never go all-in at the same crypto, atm im farming 2 other coins (LTC and ETH). Nor the same investment type, like a few weeks ago i bought a bunch of STX and WDC shares. and also i keep trading in crypto market.
also, i remember years ago when gashio hit more than 51% of bitcoin hashrate, and was very scary back in the days, luckly they top the max at 39.99% but some people took more than 2 years to recover the loss.
and as i see in chia there’s a huge probability of that happen again. hope not but lets see
I think you have every right to look into your investment returns, especially if you’re investing into this. It would be nice to have some reassurance that all our farming efforts are paid off… well, in due course anyway .
I’m really new to this whole farming/mining, this is my first attempt and more of an interest (and becoming a hobby/addiction (to buy more storage )), I would also like to see some sort of return for my effort.
Hopefully XCH takes off, then we can all be happy as Larry!
and so far seeing nothing. The wording of Estimated Time to Win does imply that you are certain to win within that period, the developer may be to word this better.
.