Netspace Plateauing?

I have been watching the netspace for a while and after hitting the 6.4EiB marker it is seemingly fluctuating between 6.3-6.4 EiB - could we be plateauing (finally)? Or is there some other issue or whatever it is… Please shed light…

Insight I can provide you from my market (a megapolis in the sub-continent) - the hoarders have finally got to existing hardware supply of large capacity HDDs - like buying 8tbs and 10tbs x 50pcs in bulk - luckily I was able to secure my TBs @ old price… I don’t know if the phenomenon has followed suit elsewhere…

Not rly I would say. Actually from farmers point of view it would be good if Chia price oscillate now in the region of 1000$, if the price will increase - surely there will be again huge increase in netsize. I have done actually some forecasts about netspace over time and it seems, like it is pretty inline today, here You are some figures:

Date (beginning of the day) 19.05.2021 26.05.2021 End of this year End of next year
Netspace in EiBs 6,68 9,64 96,61 212,06
Actual netspace 6,39
Diff -4,28%
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I would agree to the projection if the payout to netspace growth ratio was increasing proportionately - but with a fixed payout model, (and what about scarcity?) market will find an equilibrium as to how much TBs any given entity or individual is committing. No offence but I can predict stagnation now, perhaps even a decline to 5.9 with upper side hitting 7.1 by the end of the month…

P. S. This casino actually might be able predict a close to accurate payout ratio - things are lookin’ up…

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Would be great bro :smiley: but basically it is very simple, there are only 3 factors, that defines grow space:

  1. Reinvestments with already farmed Chias - if someone have 40 chia already - if tommorow Chia price will be 5 times higher - he will probably sell part of them and will reinvest hoping we can earn even more.
  2. Hope - I can expect Chia price to rise to 5K $ in a year, so I calculate how much can I earn and still play with the costs. But there are surely people that belives, that the price will be on 10K $, 20K $ so on. They will be able to invest still more
  3. True free space usage - so actually the mission of Chia - using free space on actual bought hardwares, not buying them in bulk to earn money. If the world will understand that, space can grow even more I would say.

But that are only my considerations :stuck_out_tongue:

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On point 3 was this ever a goal or statement from the Chia team? In the faq they say you can use unused existing space but I don’t think anyone was ever under the illusion that this would be the majority of the network. Just look at the “Green Paper”. There are zero claims in that paper that the coin is more environmentally friendly. The word green is used only when describing lines on graphs, seems a joke that they called it Green Paper.

PoS uses less electricity for a given datacenter footprint than PoW. To say it will use less overall is completely dependent on how big it grows…

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Crypto market has already signaled downwards, the price will actually decline and more drastically than we are expecting, if we say forget USD for now, peg crypto to cryprto in BTC, that monsters is being fell and along with it dragging the rest of the market…So yea, cost is going up and payout down…

Well, I have 2TB NEVER used space on my 2 computers. Of course everyone wants to earn as much as they can, but imagine, that for example only 2M people could use this 2TB of free space on their computers with no cost at all - add to these companies, that has tons of free space on their computers.
Well, with 2TB of plots we can say of reward around 0.3 Chia after 3 years. Nothing You could say. But actually with price around 30K $ we have 9K $, which is for example in Poland - 35K PLN, so let’s say 12K PLN yearly. Well - 10M people in Poland reaches 30K PLN Yearly, so they can earn up to 40% more yearly only using this stupid 2TB of free space on their computer. To be honest - it works for me so good.

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It is my hope and sincere wish that everyone involved gets paid…even if that would mean I am the last one to get paid, I wish for everyone to enjoy that moment of success…

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Yes maybe once the initial competition is over it will become interesting. I mean really its a race to bankruptcy right now. If person A invests 100K in resources to plot and farm then person B has to do the same to keep up with rewards etc. Where does that stop? At some point it will be almost impossible for a single entity to keep up and make any ROI I would guess, by which point a single farm of such size would probably even draw more power than the rewards are compensating for. I haven’t done the math so I’m probably talking rubbish but this is how it feels to me.
I for one am happy with sitting on my 255 plots and not adding more.

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You are absolutely correct, and just keep on sitting on it, one of these eggs is likely to hatch when it is time, seriously, fix your limit and don’t gamble any more than that…

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humans are unpredictable and irrational, netspace is driven by humans; then is extremely difficult to make accurate projections on growth.

even if XCH prices decrases by a lot I would’t be suprised if netspace continues growitng at similar rates

I use e-waste SAS drives - they are still “profitable” and will be for a while, are a pain to manage, and have limited resale value (7-8 years old) anywhere near the purchase price which, along with other drives, has gone up 100% (still far less than new drives)

I am considering not increasing my pile beyond about 250-300TB, leaving it to farm and moving on to another project - i have no intention of chasing new drives at $30/TB

If it slows from here - fantastic - if it doesn’t my capital outlay is limited and my 1 reward already paid for it. From here it is a small amount of equipment, power and half a desk

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Duuudee… 300tbs, you’ll be the first of us to strike gold! When you do promise me you 'll buy me a cold Stella… Well you drink it for me, but it’s mineee… :stuck_out_tongue:

Bram said in public he thought it’d plateau at 100 EiB right? We’re currently at, what, 6.5?

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Today seems to be flattening, but it is just a small statistical error. Happened many times before. The space is stilling doubling weekly.

If you plug in the fair/mentally-acceptable price for the drive $15/T, with current premium $15/T. And assuming the patience of people want to get money back is about 100-150days. Then we are at 64EB where this breakevn.

He also guessed/estimated 4EiB by end of May. It’s extremely hard to forecast this correctly.

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Some other potential influences:

Many people onboarding seem to have trouble getting synced at the moment.
Others seem to be holding off for the pool release.

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Btc having seen a day low of 38k+ is now hovering near 40k+ down 20k or so, a 33% decline from its euphoric peak is not showing any signs of recovery. As a result all crypto is facing the same depreciation phase dragging XCH value down to 1.1k…If the big guys have money enough to plant data centre, they can hire analysts to figure out where this is going, if perhaps they can’t buy any insider information that is, the ROI on new big investment is seemingly going down rapidly as the cost of production is rising by the day and the return diminishing in value of XCH and decreasing payout as a projected percentage of netspace + cut of share in pool(more and more coming in pool = lower cut for everyone). This perhaps would be serving as the deterrent to the netspace growth, justifying the recent stagnation as a realistic correction - any pros with knowledge of financial industry please shed light…

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  1. I think an answer is some people stop plotting and waiting for official pools what will require total replotting.
  2. https://www.reddit.com/r/chia/comments/nfuv62/chia_second_largest_mining_pool_suddenly_runs
  3. No, China Didn’t Just Ban Crypto (Again): Here’s What Really Happened

As I said, it is still increasing very fast :slight_smile: