ooops … working numbers again
Beat me to it, 26, not 260 drives lol.
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Still, to make the math support the point, I would use 1TB drives 
Right now Chia calculator says you need 256.67 TiB for an average of one block win a month, so about 26 10TB HDDS. With your numbers just the electricity costs are $25 to $100 per month for a return of $200. Add cost of plotting machines, HDDs, arrays, etc. With added corporate overhead it becomes even more difficult.
Chia farming is not done, it has just become subsistence farming. Corporate money is better spent elsewhere.
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I’d agree there, so don’t expect network growth, but all those thinking the games done are entirely wrong, from my perspective anyway.
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Where are all the chives fan boys, I bet that’s not looking so good now.
If you check my numbers in that post, you will see that I over specified all costs, just to make the point to not bother with checking that math and to stop that guy from making false claims. If you plug real numbers that cost is in the range of $0.5 - $2 or less (for $0.1-0.4 per kWh). Again, let’s go with $2 per drive.
As far as Chia Calculator, I plugged 91 plots (what I have on my 10 TB drive), and it gave me 0.0716 XCH per month and $7.73 per month.
So, based on that the 10TB drive that cost $200 makes ~$5 per month. What means that it will still “make profit” if the XCH will hit $30 (for 10 TB drives, lower for 18 TB ones).
Again, if you want to scale it, you should use 18 TB drives, and the math will look even better. So, if you want to argue for volume, don’t use small drives.
Although, with that math, those that purchased those small ~5 TB 2.5" drives that usually last for 2 years, that is a disaster.
Yep. Your numbers are very good. I am at the extreme low end of your scale. Electricity cost is significant, but not as bad as I painted it. I still feel that Chia farming has become sketchy for corporate investors.
Cost of over $10,000 for 26 10TB HDDs and a basic plotting machine that will deliver an average of one win a month or $2400/year earned once fully plotted.
One year electrical cost for whole setup including monitor on 24/7 is under $350/year at my cheap rates so is almost incidental for me. As you showed, some are paying over four times my rates so not as incidental for them.
For corporate, many made their big investments when XCH was over $1000. I believe that the numbers have changed so drastically that peeps are getting laid off and fired as grow ops shut down and people are blamed for getting into Chia farming in the first place.
I think that we all agree that whatever the XCH price is right now, if you have your farm, just don’t shut it down.
One thing where we not so much differ, but have a different perspective is when we see a potential cut off time. For me, I am fine to give chia 2 years. If things will not improve, my take is that they are doomed. So, for me, there is no point to debate it too much right now.
Also, a big part of their business plan depends on the value of pre-farm that they hold. If things will not improve, their pre-mine will be more or less worthless. Again, that pre-farm depends on farmers like us to run the network, so when we are gone, they will be gone as well.
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End of the year is coming.
This is the part of the year when we want to rethink current projects.
Chia project is affordable project to start. This is why lots of inexperienced with crypto people joined it, including myself. For some people low XCH price, long waiting time for block reward makes this project not worth of continuing. But end of the year is accelerating this process.
If someone started Chia with expectation that this project will bring new lambo in first year… end of the calendar year may be the moment to shut it down.
In north part of the Earth winter is coming… and bad mood may come. This also can be factor why some people are closing their farms.
But then… spring will come… more HDDs to buy and plots to make 
Ha Ha Ha
That lowers the cost of farming, as you can use your drives as a heater
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I also see Chia project as a hobby. Every hobby costs money… Chia is not the most expensive one.
The learning curve with this project is great for me.
Meeting nice people is also advantage.
So why to shut it down ?
I will keep farming for longer time. I think until first halving. Then I will rethink my next move.
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Ha ha ha!
I told you that I would like to do plotting… winter time Saving money on natural gas could make Chia even more green
Unfortunately I did plotting May-July without AC
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I have recently become involved in The Chia Plot discord. I am enjoying a different level of conversation there.
I’m a bit tired of answering the same questions over and over. More conversation aimed at elevating the knowledge of all involved has been stimulating.
I feel that the conversation is not as biased by pre-held beliefs and personal involvement.
More like old style newspaper reporters getting together to compare facts and search for important new story lines.
If you will think about Chia as a hobby the costs are not that bad
There are more expensive hobbies. Most of the hobby’s doesn’t bring money in return but Chia could do it.
Chia farming started as a business venture for me. I can spend my hobby money much better. As XCH dropped below $1000 I comforted myself with the expensive hobby bit. As it drops to $100 it becomes a stupidly expensive hobby.
I could have bought a couple good canoes with gear instead, lolz!
But the price can go down like this days… but one day can go up
I could buy another expensive lens for my camera But this time I bought HDDs
IMOP there are now many better places to put your money than Chia farming.
With network space dropping it would appear that many feel as I do.
Long term XCH value and XCH trading and HODLing are a completely different conversation. Traders and HODLs may do well in the long term but the short to mid term business model for farming Chia is a bust.
I think the time will bring the answer. But you may be right.
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