No win after chia 1.3.3 - 1.3.5

May 8th for me, last cookie…

I have myself noticed such a gape of time period of not winning and this is the second gape. I think there’s nothing wrong with blockchain and this is no bug. The nature of this happening is deeper it happens because of nonlinear probability of winning. Mark my word in relatively short time we gonna win twice or thrice per week/month. And then, we will meet another gape. It’s like voids in space.

ETW for me is 9 days currently. Just won this morning. Previous win was 19th. 6 days ago. Running latest version (1.3.5).

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Just to be clear. Are we all talking about self-pooling?

I’m not self-pooling. I’m in PoolChia. That shouldn’t matter. Challenges and proofs are handled locally. The software just reports what has happened to the pool (if part of a pool). At least that is what is supposed to happen. Short of some sort of bug, how your plots are allocated (pooling or self-pooling) should not effect your win rate.

But, I agree, this is something that should be clarified for discussion sake. Maybe a common factor could be identified with people that are experiencing excess gaps in block wins. Because 23 days on a 2 day ETW is bonkers and just not even close to statistically possible if everything is running properly.

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I am self pooling with harvesters.

Just want to update, the dry spell has ended.
Everything was working and it was just bad luck.

So my ETW is 2 days and the dry spell was 23 days. so thats 12 times

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Yay! But wow. That’s nuts. Well one way to look at it is that you are due a big hot streak.

There are no correlations between dry spells and hot streaks. It only averages over the long time, not by one type following the other.

For something to average out over time, a hot streak would have to come sooner or later to average out the effects of such a cold spell. Doesn’t mean it will happen right this second, but it will happen. Statistically.

Not exactly. In this case, he can have all his wins exactly at 2 days for the next 100 years, and just this one bad streak. The series is not compensating for potential gains or losses, just averages with the amount of tries making those potential outliers insignificant (rather than magically providing reverse outliers).

Although, as you noted before, being 12x behind is statistically slim (although not impossible). What I would like to see is that when we submit a proof, there would be a reply stating how far it was from those that won. At least, seeing something like that would make one (me) more comfortable watching dry spells.

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Agreed. As everyone has been saying. The system needs more (any) health monitoring for the farmer’s sake. If a farmer does not take the initiative to look at the logs or run a third party script to give them health information, there is no way to know if you are actually farming. “Plots Passed Filter” is not remotely enough information in the GUI.

But, I do think the GUI is getting stronger and stronger. Hopefully these additions are coming.

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I can confirm that v1.3.4 run really well.
some tips:
Open port 8444 on router. check on https://portchecker.co/
Get result “Port 8444 is open”
How to:
a) Assing statick local ip at your PC (Examp: 192.168.1.40/10.0.0.40)
b) Forward port 8444 to your PC using NAT on router
c) Disable upnp at config.yaml
d) Limit peer to 8 at config.yaml (target_peer_count: 8)
e) Set log_level: WARNING at config.yaml
f) Check debug.log. You should not see any repetitive same errors or warnings. Maybe WARNING Block validation time: … (it doesn’t matter. ignore this warning)
Restart chia

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Unfortunately, some catastrophic errors are still labeled with INFO level (check github). So, WARN is not what you want to have.

I do not use programs such as farmr or chiadog. I just need to see the warnings and errors. INFO is unnecessary and maybe miss errors.

Then you can use grep or findstr to filter out those errors. (As mentioned before, some catastrophic errors are labeled as INFO.)

Also, if you prefix your previous post with what you just wrote right now, it would make more sense (to agree or not), as right now it looks like a general statement that should apply to every farm…

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Just got a double drop :rofl: 2 drop in 6 hours

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The only time that has ever happened to me was my first set of wins. I won 3 times in one day and I only had like 300 plots or something like that. Hasn’t happened since. Congrats.

Just wanted to give u guys an update … still no Win. Last win was still 1. April and average Time in gui says 17days. Is this still in the realm of possibility or is something wrong?

Yes, had 140 days with a 17 day estimation. Then next win after 4 days.