My last win was May 27th, and displays 12 days 
My brother recently had two wins in quick succession. Iām still waiting, last won in March twice after a long dry spell, now on ETW of just under three weeks though.
If I remember correctly, I think my longest was 45 days on a 12 day ETW (that was months ago). 140 days is hard to quantify. I think that is even beyond the classification of bad luck. Bad luck would be 3 or 4 times your ETW. At least that is what I have been told. And just for evidence sake, I have been winning regularly on 1.3.5. No change.
I am also in the no win group with the last win in late March (pushing 5x).
Here is the link to Flex pool, with their block stats - Blocks | Flexpool.io. Right now, on the very first page there is one block with 617% luck (6x). Although, it may be that Flex has some problems with processing blocks on time again (but later catching up with ridiculously short times), as it was shown few weeks back.
Here is the link to OpenChia pool - OpenChia.io - Chia Farming Pool. On page 12, there is one block with 589% luck. Actually, starting around page 10 there were several blocks with long delays.
So, just based on those two pools, it looks like 6x is not that rare. I cannot say that I have seen 7x on those two pools, but maybe I just didnāt check enough pages with those blocks.
Although, we are a small group of people in this forum, and this is the first time we have a situation that several of us (kind of a big chunk) are at around 4x-6x delays. Also, I think for all of us that started when we upgraded to v1.3.x, what kind of makes it a bit more bizarre and harder to accept.
1.3.5 is no different than any other rev. I update almost immediately when new rev. comes out. Here are my recent win rate times this yr >
letās start here > Won Dec23rd 2021, then !! +43 days !! > won 2/4/22 > +1 day 2/5 +5 days and so onwardsā¦
+5 days > + 21 days > +5 days > +29 days > +17 days + 4 days > +13 days + +16 days > +8 days > + 3 days
Right now, I am supposed 9 day win rate. But really they are all over the statistical map, some super long, some super short, some closer to āregularā. It like throwing darts at a board when you arenāt good. They hit all over.
I am not saying that v1.3.x is the problem. What I am saying is that this is the first time on this forum that a decent chunk of members is 4x+ behind. Also, whatever this is worth, most of those people upgraded to v1.3 in March or so (before it started). It would be easier to dismiss the v1.3 correlation, if it would happen in say Feb (way before) or late April / early May (way after). Even assuming that v1.3 may be an issue, the only source for that could be config.yaml, and some of those people went with the old one (e.g., myself), but some regenerated, so most likely just a coincidence, nothing more.
Also, I wanted to point out that 6x is not that rare (based on those two pools), so stating that it is ābeyond the classification of bad luckā is kind of a stretch.
I am fully aware that for most of those that upgraded to v1.3 nothing changed, and they are winning as before.
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July 8th, 2021, Nov 20th, 2021, Dec 23rd, 2021, Feb 1st, 2022, Feb 7th, 2022, Feb 28th, 2022, March 17th, April 2nd, April 8th, May 8th, May 27th, 2022, too much typingā¦Just got another drive in the mail and its plottingā¦
My last win was on 1st march since then nothing. ETW is 13 days, means 8x longer than expected. All started with 1.3.x, hmmm. Today i reinstalled chia and now syncing from scratch, no clue why i am doing this :D. No errors, no warnings, farmr looks good as far as i can evaluateā¦ I joined space pool some weeks ago and received my 2 chia for the period I was in. Now I am farming solo again.
The v. 1.2.11 worked well for my so far, no i am thinking, why did I change the running horse?
Just download bc, as there is really no point to wait for it to fully sync. The syncing process is basically broken.
Did you reinstall v1.3, or went back to v1.2.11? And by reinstall, did you regenerate .chia folder (i.e., config.yaml)?
Hello,
well, I also have a bc on my another linux pc, but i think better resync. I deleted all folders and installed 1.3.5 again, typed the 24 words etc.
The actual estimated time to win is really 3-4 times longer than what the GUI and chia farm summary show (source).
That assertion was made in April 2021. Maybe today it is slightly higher than 3-4x, maybe not. Itās also probability over time, so a long dry spell can be corrected by luck.
That said, itās probably more reasonable to multiple the estimated time to win by 4, and set that as your target.
I would read that code a bit differently. The ETW is rather exactly at what UI shows, and that is what the average should be. However, the tooltip comment, especially āActual results may take 3 to 4 times longer than this estimateā says to not bother them, if someone sees those results at 3x/4x, or so.
Kind of two ways to check whether that ETW is holding water is to:
- Check your pool rewards over a longer period of time and check how far are those from ETW (mind 0.25XCH that is not in those rewards)
- Check your 0.25XCH rewards over a longer period of time and see how far are those from ETW.
In my case, before April those two were very close to ETW. As I am close to 5x, that is not really worrying me too much. Although, seeing more people on this forum being at about the same or worst rates, and kind of v1.3. correlating with it is a bit worrying. However, that is most likely just correlation not causation, so maybe I should go back to my green shirt.
Also, you can compare those two pools I listed above, and see how close those are to ETW (just extrapolate what is ETW for those pools based on what your UI shows.
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True, but since some have been reporting actual results closer to 3-5x, it made me wonder what other factors might be making it ā3 to 4 times longerā in actuality.
I agree with you and think you make a good point here.
Up until recently I was also about 4 months in with an ETW teetering at ā4 weeksā, and finally hit. So right around 4x. Iāve certainly had enough downtime in the last 4 months to explain why it took so long 
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Kind of good sanity check is to compare pool earned XCH to those 0.25XCH for won blocks (if not solo). That ratio should be on average at 7. If it is higher than that, it most likely is that your luck is not that good, if lower, your average luck is on the green side, as those should kind of go hand in hand.
Depending on what is the farm size is and if really ālong timeā has elapsed, it may also indicate that the pool earnings are not where those are being advertised. Although, that is rather a lame indicator. To me, this part really sucks, as Chia does nothing to help with filtering out scum pools.
It is really a dice toss, so checking those pool results is kind of sobering experience, as the time scale for those is way denser than most of the farms, but āluckā results they have basically represent results that any farm might have (adjusted by time).
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The other side of the ācoin tossā not discussed so oftenā¦that ETW also can be times less than estimated. Notice here: ETW of 9 ā¦ but multiple āluckierā days 5ā¦4ā¦3 for example. So the pendulum swings both ways and it all averages out over the course of timeā¦ say months or a yr.
You only need wait for some āgood timesā to roll around to compensate for the others.
The point of this thread is not so much about scrutinizing the individual runs, as it is well understood that luck goes both ways, and it could go to extremes on both sides.
The main point is that for several people, the dry spell started around March 1st. The second coincidence is that the most of those people upgraded to v1.3 around that time. This may imply that for some of those upgrades something in the config.yaml was not done right, at least that is the only thing that I can think of, other than it is just a spurious correlation without any causation.
The fact that I am considering problems with config.yaml is that Chia has butchered config.yaml updates with software upgrades. For whatever retarded reason, they are not bringing new settings to config.yaml, and expect all of us to do it manually, or kill that config, and rebuild it afterwards. Either way, that is just a nonsense.
Agreed. I guarantee that if you create a thread that says āI havenāt had a win since X happenedā, there will be a surge of people chiming in with the same situation. Because there is always a group of people in a bad luck streak. Always. Just because something happened at the same time as your luck streak started does not mean that thing caused it.
My wife decided to get a divorce the day after I dropped my phone. Was my phone that important?
My wins have been above average since I upgraded to 1.3.5. I have had 3 wins in the last week with an ETW of 9 days. So either Iām special and this mysterious version bug has skipped me or this is all just BS.
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Still no win. Iam still suspicious about 1.3.4 and 1.3.5.
The developers do a great job improving the chia gui but they ignore an important point. They leave editing the config.yaml to us!!!
When I send some chia to another address, gui changes the receiving address but do not write the new addresss to config file!!! This is a simple example. I f there are some other important changes to be made manual to config file how do I know???
Well, i am still syncing, so cant farm right now. Finish tomorrow evening, lost two days but i am fine with that 
Will report and keep updating.
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