Payouts Estimate?

Hey Guys,

I setup a rig back in July, Back then, I decided I would create 1000 plots and stop there. took around 3weeks to create them, and been running since with +/- 1000 plots.
The estimated payout has been since then around 2 months.

Problem is, its been close to 6 and still no payout… is this normal? (I am aware its an average -but still )

It took a long time to hit for me after I plotted over 2000 till I hit.

Are you farming solo or as a pool member?

If you are a pool member and are getting pool payouts, it implies that in general you are submitting everything as needed. Are you checking for stales reported by your pool?

Also, a better estimate is to use your pool payouts. You should roughly win one .25 XCH per 1.75 XCH pool payout. If you are behind, it is just a bad luck.

The ETW is just looking at the number of your plots, so that doesn’t reflect ramping up, eventual stales, etc.

First step to improve your situation is to join a good pool using your plotnft. The pool statistics will quickly tell whether you have “stales” or not.

Target stale rate = less than 1%
If you get more, then you’d have to investigate why and make adjustments/fixes. There can be many root causes, so it depends on your setup. We can advise when we get more info

Also make sure you’re allowing port 8444 inbound to your farmer through your router and any firewalls. I’ve heard that if this is blocked, you can run into issues like that. I don’t know if that’s accurate or not.

No, that is not accurate. Read the official Chia setup instructions.

Same exact Sutuation for me. I have 920 plots, no payout ever for over 7 months.

Parked the disks and ditched chia and the electric bill was more than the peanuts paid by pool. Reused the kit for a different project for now.

I looked into a pool a while ago, it sounded like i had to ditch my plots and replot, has this changed?

There are nft plot pools, and og plot pools, so there was never any need to replot your plots.

Just have to wait. I dont know what I did to one of my nodes this morning, walked the dog and came back and it says I’m up two Blocks (XCH)

I have over 2000 plots (NFT with a pool) but can still see if I win a block or not.

I had one block payout in july and the next two, close together, in november

This is why I am with a pool because I cannot deal with that shit :joy:

Like said, there are pools you can join like Hpool that you do not need to replot to the ne NFT plots.
But buyer beware, some pools like that have issues because of the workarounds they use.

I replotted everything to NFT, and vey happy I did so.

Chia is a lotterly. I have been farming with the exact same 777 plots (76 TB) shortly after Mainnet went live. It would take 2, then 3 months to win it said (it’s an guesstimation). It has remained around 3 months because the total network space has been rather stable since it leveled out (between 29 and 36 EiB).
I still farm solo with the same 777 plots today. It won’t grow as I’m out of diskspace and i’m not investing in more disk capacity.

I have a very stable dedicated physical plotting and farming rig (ups backed).
Internet connection is rock solid and I use ChiaDog to closely monitor.
I had a few short and one 5 hour long internet-outage since I started participating so those where the only times I was not online.

It took 5.5 months for the first block (remember it said 3 months). Then 3 weeks after that, I got lucky again (with the same 777 plots) and since then: nothing. So it is totally unpredictable.
The lotterly/randomness is what I don’t like about Chia if i’m honest. Pool or standalone does not change that.

Pool doesn’t change the randomness no, but it certainly makes the earnings more predictable if your in a large pool that’s minting blocks every 128 sec apx ,( current time on space pool.)

So then your only getting random .25 rather than random 2 xch.

I’d say that’s a big change vs solo.

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666 here (don’t ask). hit after 4 mths. I was in the pool, but it was my hit. Got my .25 and was happy… still not sorry for joining the pool as i’m a over 2 xch in much less than 8 mths, so i pay my fees without too much worrying

How long, on average, does it take to win .25, let alone how long does it take to win 8 times 0.25 (equivalent to 2 xch).

for me, i hit my avg value… but i’m not sure what number you’d need to start really hitting the statisticaly expected periods.

if you go to stats of a pool, you will see some of them (i only use one) publish how “lucky” they were to hit it. i didn’t investigate too much, but i’d expect luck to be equal to how quicker / slower pool was to hit the block compared to what it shd be based on size… and if a pool is big enough, it should be ~100%. and it is in my case.

for myself,i can hit next coin in 2 months or in 20… all possible :slight_smile:

It takes exactly the same amount of time as it would take if you were solo.

That’s irrelevant, as your not factoring in the payouts that you get for sharing all the 1.75 that are shared every 128 sec apx.