chia has been the most unprofitable investment for me.
plotting machine, hard drives, ssd or nvme for wallet and db its still grow like manniac young gril.
now I have to make a decision whether to sell these hdd or not.
if I had bought a graphics card with this investment, I would have earned almost 8 times more than what I earn now. i really dont care about tech. electric cost. etc… because its money and i am still continue loosing.
moreover, eth had really proven itself. I really don’t know why I bought the hdd. green world may have deceived me.
i am pretty sure in the near future chia going to lower price.
but I really don’t know what will happen in the distant future. I do not know whether it is worth continuing this ridiculous investment for this.
i have 2 questions for you
1- do you have any information about developers ? they doing something about stabileze or support price ?
2- i know many of you are in the same situation as me. what would you do
Well I don’t know what you pay for electricity, or graphics cards but that is overselling the GPU mining quite a bit. I had one 6600XT mining in my farming system, a very energy efficient card per MH.
ROI on my Chia farm is just under 3 years, ROI on that card is about 1.7 years, so not even 2x that of Chia , let alone 8x.
And then it all comes down to looking into a glass ball and seeing the future. Plenty of educated guesses to be made, but no guarantees. Chia has the potential to go up quite a bit if it takes up. In the past there have been plenty of times where ETH or BTC were “unprofitable” to mine. People turned off their machines and forgot about it…
Point is today’s “profitability” means very little in the long run. If it was super profitable, everyone would start farming, netspace would go up like crazy and then it becomes less profitable again…wait that’s exactly what happened to Chia at the start
Well, did you farm enough chia with your PB to sell the farm and hold for 2-5 years until you can sell the XCH?
If yes, then sell the stuff if you want or need return on investment NOW, otherwise, keep farming (since farming the existing plots is low cost now).
The global economy is in a hard place. Prices are up, demand is up, supply is down, and this is all before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
BTC’s short-lived rise is headed down again, and most other cryptocurrencies have slid back down along with it. If you can afford to hold, keep farming and hope things go back up. 1 year is a pretty short amount of time to realistically expect a huge return on investment.
Calculate where you need XCH to be for you to break even with what you farmed, and use that as a guide for whether or not you need to start selling hardware to recover costs and when.
In the Long run p will equal production costs, basic economic principle because if you can make a profit, it will attract competition. You needed to enter big. Entry now is completely senseless. People dropping out and not many new player join causes the declining netspace.
The Chia company does not care about increasing the XCH. They care about maximizing their stock price at the IPO.
Smart people build machines to farm chia with HDDs, ETH with GPU and for instance RTM with the CPU (at its high). I think I made just like 600-800 Euro with CPU Mining during the RTM crazyness.
I think that is a huge part about what they care about since their stock price will be directly tied to the market value of XCH.
The Company has a new and superior approach to funding, building, and supporting a
blockchain via an eventually public, for-profit, open source development company that holds a
pre-farm (equivalent to a pre-mine) of chia coins. Chia Network intends to list the equity of the
Company on an major stock exchange to strengthen the credibility and regulatory certainty of its
open source software support business with governments, financial institutions, and enterprises.
The Company believes that its enterprise value will initially reflect the value of the chia held on
its balance sheet. As our enterprise software business grows we believe our software service
and support business will add to the enterprise value of the Company as well as help drive
adoption of chia in commerce and globally. The Chia Network balance sheet should allow the
Company’s publicly traded equity to function like an ETF for chia coins. The Company expects
its equity valuation in a public market to correlate to the price movements of chia coins on digital
money exchanges.
Just not so, that’s like saying share prices are linked to dividends, or any other random thing.
Share price can grow on expected return no matter the fiat value of xch.
So long as we farm , keep it decentralised, chia onboard real business, coin price is irrelevant.
The IPO price (stock value) is what people believe in such project (as with any other tech company). Therefore, to be able to have a successful IPO, there is a need to have a good story, and the current market is maybe not the best for that.
Chia’s original plans were for XCH be around $20, so to some extent the current price is well above that, so no worries here. On the other hand, 1 year of basically steady drop of XCH price, a loss of ~25% of net space, a loss of about 30-40% of farmers, not being on any major exchanges (i.e., a fringe coin) are not really things that makes people feel warm and fuzzy to let the IPO happen.
So, with the current price of $60, the pre-farm is worth (on paper) ~$2b, and right now this may be the only thing that can still support the IPO. Is that a good enough story, I don’t know.
But it is. Read the Chia Business Green Paper. The initial value of the company will be based on their equity, which is all in the pre-farm XCH. So if that is worth $0, then the company has no equity and its share price is valued as such. Today, they have equity of ~$1.3 billion US based on the chia they hold.
The Chia Network balance sheet should allow the
Company’s publicly traded equity to function like an ETF for chia coins. The Company expects
its equity valuation in a public market to correlate to the price movements of chia coins on digital
money exchanges.
By the way, with the current coin market, and pre-farm over $1b, I would go for another round of VC money, as company percentage needed to give up would be based on the pre-farm, as such small. This would give them more time to beef everything up and hire more people if needed.
From my point of view, an IPO right now is just a waste of time (if all coins will continue sliding down, it will just depress company valuation, …).
I was just editing the last post to add, but will add it here instead: I am not a financial advisor and I do not understand a lot of what is said or intended by that paper. As a lay person when it comes to FA, I was left with more discomfort than hope when I first read that paper.
However, as a smart person once told me, take it with a grain of salt and file it as due diligence work. I think, however, that the paper does speak to the point raised earlier about IPO price so that is why I referenced it. To bet on Chia without having read it would be unwise. At least, you aren’t giving yourself a fair shake by fully understanding the ecosystem you are getting involved with.
Your correct, I took a gamble, no more no less.
But again, I’m not naive, everything is a gamble, and I’ve seen more nonsense come from crypto businesses than I care to remember.
Take everything with a pinch of salt, question it all.
But when you understand / see the bigger picture and understand inner workings of situations, you gain far more insight than being led down a path by a business that just wants money from ipo…
They have silly money in prefarm, and bram at the head, that is what I bet on.
If you can’t make ot work with that prefarm you’ve fooked it big time.
Him being the creator is why I took interest at first. It is why I still farm and also why I think it has long term potential. I only got involved in late 2021 based solely on the ChiaLisp and Chia blockchain technologies and their potential. I’m with you there big time.
You know they can write almost anything in these “Green Paper” thingies? To be honest, if stocks were directly tied to XCH prices, I would just by stocks.
Yeah, basically it is a business plan. What is written now outlines their current vision and plans for the future. It also outlines some important corporate governance that describes how the company is set up and how the pre-farmed chia can be used. There are some things in it that can’t be changed without a board majority vote. I don’t think it can be completely ignored.
Right now at $61, I think that buying XCH on the market makes more sense than building a farm to try to farm it yourself.
Unfortunately a lot of folks fooled themselves into building ridiculously overpowered plotters with Threadrippers and numerous high-end, high-endurance SSDs. Even after madMAx became an option. It’ll be challenging enough to ROI the drives without the additional burden of $5K+ startup costs on top.
Hopefully that’s not that big of a cost component for you… I converted mine to the v2 database format and it’s only about 56 GiB right now.
