Unlucky farmer or what ?!?

Hi folks,

I’ve complained month ago regarding my luck and found block day after that so I will try my luck again :slight_smile:

I have ~8000 plots and my ETW went from 11 days to 9 days since my last block won that occurred on Jun 29th (23 days ago). Since then I’ve joined Space Pool and got around 2000 plots there. I’m getting perfectly aligned daily payouts with what would be expected based on the number of plots I have there.
‘chia farm summary’ reports all plots I have and the NFT plots are harvested by the same machines as the OG plot.
Question: is it possible to have something wrong with the farm setup given that I’m getting expected payouts from the pool ? It this just a bad luck ?
All indicates show that everything is healthy and I would assume that pool payouts would be ultimate indicatator of everything working e2e (the payout address in farmer config is correct). Is this correct assumption ?

Thanks !

Let’s assume an average 10 day estimated time to win for this period. Then you are now at 230% of your average estimated time to win now. This is expected to happen from time to time. For example, flexpool had a unlucky streak of 500% estimated time to win today:

PS. I’m @ >300% estimated time to win at the moment. Unlucky? Maybe, maybe not. I have no proof to show the opposite at least.

A great way to diagnose your farm health is to inspect % of stale shares in the pool over 24 hrs.

When I joined flexpool, I discovered that my rig was not optimized. A few tweaks with power management and network settings with help of flexpool community - and now running at 99.84% valid points

In Space Pool they don’t display stale shares. Wouldn’t stale shares impact my payout ?
As I’ve said - I do monitor actual pool payouts and the expected payout based on the number of plots in the pool and they match more less exactly (within 1% diff).

You could change temporarily to flexpool if you are interested in this data. They have 0% fee as well, I think.

Switched to flex pool. So far looks good. They have static difficulty set to 1 which results with more proofs being made by harvesters. It has some pros and cons.

Another week has passed and still no block. Pool payouts are still well aligned with expectations and the percentage of stales on flexpool was below 0.01%. I’m close to 1PB now with 7 days estimated time to win.
In space pool terms this is called extremely unlucky.

I know how frustrating this can be.
For peace of mind, I think replotting to poolable plots is your best option. However, you are still within the “unlucky” territory, so you might get several fast wins in a row at any moment. Flexpool had several wins today with luck at <10% of estimated time to win for example.