What are your plans? Keep on plotting / stopping / selling the whole system

There have been a few polls online regarding people’s plans on pooling and farming Chia. Recently, there have been a few updates, namely the delay of pooling, which made me wonder if this has affected your future plans?

I have personally started considering to return some of my external HDDs. I have finished plotting my 65 TBs and have been happily and successfully farming with them, first solo, and now for the past weeks in Hpool. My daily income has decreased steadily from 0.04 to 0.028 XCH per day, and is still very profitable, earning around 20 USD per day with external HDDs that cost around the same as a single RTX 3070 (that mines maybe 6 bucks a day). So, the project has been already profitable for me.

I can still return most of my HDDs and get a full refund, which would be a solid thousand bucks immediately. I can actually do this still for the next 2 weeks, which is pretty much the time period when Chia is still extremely profitable. Since I am dealing with external HDDs, returning a few smaller, 6TB drives would also clean up my shelf quite a bit - plus I will never need that many externals anyway for personal usage.

The other option would be to leave the system running. Not sure what is the energy consumption of 10 external HDDs but I’d assume that the profitability would rely mainly on the future success of the project.

With the settings seen below, Chia would grow during the summer to around 40-70 EiB, after which it would grow steadily towards 200 EiB during the next 12 months. As can be seen from the graph, for 1 TB, a significant portion of the income during the next year (or 5 years) will be earned during the next 30 days. However, on the other hand, if XCH doesn’t lose its momentum (which depends a lot on the management, the momentum of cryptos in general, as well as the listings of XCH + its price development), one would still be earning a dollar per day with 65 TB in 2023, which is a nice 0,08 % daily dividend on the original investment, and a 30 % yearly dividend, which is insanely great amount compared to most other means of investing. Not sure how long the external HDDs will survive, so I’d consider them somewhat worthless after a few years of full time activity.

A lot of people talk about “weak hands” and “doing crypto wrong” if one considers “giving up” but I think it is definitely worth considering the potential (which is almost completely unknown), the risks (which are relatively big and unpredictable), and the expected ROI. After all, it makes no sense to farm unless the profitability is positive. With the current development, I am not completely sure this will be the case in the future. After all, although I prefer mining instead of trading cryptos, at some point it might make more sense to just buy XCH instead of farm it.

So, how do you see the situation?

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Considering that:

a. netspace has grown faster than I expected
b. HDD prices for me have doubled or more if I can even get them.
c. the increased netspace and lack of pools has resulted in higher than expected variance.

So I plan to keep my current storage online, maybe I’ll win a block, maybe not. But I’m not planning on adding extra storage. Returning storage after I’ve used it, even if the store would accept it, I just won’t do that.

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Well with the developers now saying ‘soon’ pulling a Blizzard and no indication of when, I’d probably be joining Hpool.

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Depends. Are you in it for the experience or the profit.

In the latter case I would sell ASAP as IMHO you will not get a better return from Chia on those drives than that refund. But also in the former case I would still return the drives as the fun in Chia is learning how to min/max the plotting, not the harvesting.

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yeah, this is a hard question.

I also have a bunch of unpacked hdd’s and external drives lying around and I am at about the same point as you, 65 TB. Some I can’t return anymore, but with the prices as they are I can probably sell them at a profit :slight_smile:

They thing is that, you just don;t know how it’s going to turn out. It’s a guessing game at this point.

You are right that, over time the profit could stabilize a bit as the relative growth of the netspace drops.
Just because it’s so big after a while, that even adding a few EiB won;t make much change to your chance to win.
But, at some point you will also have to factor in the cost of power. If 65TB only makes a dollar a day, then the power cost might be too high to make a profit. Where I live it’s about 28 cents in USD per KWh, so that adds up fast.

I still have 60TB left to plot on the hardware that is already in the computer, so i will finish that at least, if I will be adding the rest after that…haven’t decided yet. Unpacked and in backorder, I still got another 80 or so TB left so that’s a lot of money tied up. And that is becoming a bit of a concern too. I’m relatively confident that I will make enough from farming + selling the hardware if I decide to fully stop a few months from now, but this also means leaving all that money tied up leaving me with much less buffer for unexpected expenses than I would like.

And then there’s the cost and time of having to replot 80-100 TB of plots for when the pools finally happen. That will wear my ssd’s down to the bone as their endurance is not so great.

The trajectory is south… Wouldn’t it be better to hold cash and pick up XCH from the market when it flattens out? This money can find much better use I am sure…I got suckered in, much the same as many people might be feeling right now, hats off to the marketing team, but I plan to keep the plots online for 6 months…then bye, bye!

At least I am in it solely for the profit. Otherwise, I would either just be running a node without thousands of euros invested in the plotting/farming, or - more likely - be supporting Ethereum that I have higher respect towards to (both, regarding management and technology). Originally, I did have a lot of respect towards Bram and Gene, but by time, I’ve been surprised a few too many times with statements that seemed a bit off. At the same time, Vitalik feels to be a more likable personality, and Ethereum seems to have bright future ahead…

This is exactly what I am thinking here. I’ve got too tired of trading cryptos and prefer mining nowadays, but to me it makes much more sense to just buy XCH (or hold the farmed ones that I haven’t sold yet) since I strongly believe that Chia keeps growing (both network, listings, accounts etc), and growth tends to mean / force eventually also the price to increase, since the farming has to stay profitable.

Tough choices. I am quite confident, that I will return the latest and most expensive 3x6TB external HDDs in a few weeks, and leave the remaining 50 TB farming in Hpool. Probably it won’t be worth it to replot for new pools since I’ve been perfectly happy with the current one - even if they took 20 % of the profits (or more likely, if the scammy, double-farming users played dirty and kept “stealing” 20 % of the pool profits).

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I would sell 1/2 my holding in a bet to buy cheaper…regulatory news will keep thrashing the market, that’s my opinion, moreover, the market is not moving beyond the 38k BTC threshold, so a further correction is a more likely event… But again up to you brother, all the best!

One of the major concerns facing the crypto market is the lack of compliance, governments all over the world have tightened bank regulations to monitor financial movements to control illicit trade. If BTC or any other instrument became compliant it will loose its popular appeal, drag the market down.

We have to imagine the ideal ecosystem where crypto exists in the future, assuming the governments would move to ban it since it is a parallel unregulated financial mechanism so the only place for crypto to windup is underground, or sanction imposed countries… My view of it… It’s not looking so good without any official backing with check and balances…

Imagine if we have already seen the highest YTD periods for the crypto universe, technically no financial instrument ever has held an exchange value of $66k - its just advertising - hypnotise the greedy, get rich quick men with idle cash, similar to the way stock markets do with integrating future valuations… Technically there is no such money to pay out every single coin ever mined… It’s just a number, inflated, and bound to burst!

P. S.

Problem of Perception: when we are overly involved in a company, a corporation, a business, or economy, it is very difficult to perceive the state of things from the view point of an outsider. The crypto universe additionally happens to be one made of smoke screens and inherently delusional marketing fronts… I came new to cryprto on 10th May and having been here just a few days only confirmed my suspicions.

One should try the exercise of extracting oneself entirely (as if visiting a rehab) for a week, or month, observing other real and material economies and markets, and nature of the real financial world. Then revisiting crypto as if an outsider looking in, help oneself rid of self-deluding “realities” which have little to no documentable evidence…

Name one crypto with document proving its own financial valuation… It’s like tomorrow I can issue Kwyjibos worth $1million a piece… Why? Just because I say so? Doesn’t add up…

Sorry I don’t mean any offence…

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I plan to keep all of my storage (.5 PB) and continue to mine Chia. I’ve been on Chia a while now so I broke even (and better) the data trading started.

I’ve been in the crypto game (buying, mining) since 2014. I’ve seen a lot of shit. Unfortunately Chia meets my criteria for a scam. Some of you won’t like this. It is ok. It is just my criteria, not yours.

My test for a scam is simple. If I can think of a way it could be a scam, it is a scam. I don’t want this to turn into a Chia is or is not a scam debate, just wanted to explain this so you would understand that I immediately trade any XCH I farm/mine (yes it is mining) for BTC. I have no plans to hold any significant amount of XCH.

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With such varied opinions of the future of XCH and crypto, it is ever more obvious that no one knows what will happen, not even the developers, certainly not us lowly farmers. But this has been, and always will be, the story of investing. Take your shot, make a guess as to future returns, continue or not depending.

Save all your remarks for your kids bedtime stories - to show them how great or dumb you were way back when crypto was going on in 2021.

So keepin the faith for the time being, personally. Chia!

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I’d like to add to my post above that I have gotten a lot of enjoyment from building a Chia farm. It was a lot more fun betting on an unknown. I invested over $12K on my farm well before I knew what I would make. Of that $12K, probably $5K was on plotting hardware which I can sell when I am ready. The rest was on disks. I spent all that money because I love crypto, love mining (long time miner here), and I love being part of something. I jumped into Chia well before I really understood what it was about, how it worked, how it would be managed, how centralized/decentralized it was… I jumped in because I had a bunch of storage left over from my BurstCoin mining days. I always thought I would be lucky if I could sell XCH at $50/XCH. I haven’t bought any hardware since a few weeks before trading (ok, ok not 100% true… I can’t pass up a good deal on terabytes).

I’m glad I got into this, it was fun, I plan to stay. I am very interested in how the Chia team will free Chia from the some of the same problems that plague Ethereum… A big one being centralized leadership.

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Am a little disappointed that some of you guys came in (especially recently) to make it rich quick, got burned and are now turning away pointing back to the “scam that is crypto”

Nothing in life is without risk - the higher the potential gain, the higher the risk. Those who have been in the market long enough know that it involves a lot of luck, and a lot of work to improve the chances of doing well.

I am as bothered about how Chia has gone as the next person, but I don’t blame all of crypto for that. In particular, mining a new coin is fraught with uncertainly - at what price will it list, WILL it list, will I be soon enough … I already know from CPU mining that in the long term you CANNOT compete with the Chinese or those operating at scale. As solo smaller miners our interests did not, unfortunately, align with the developers so the volatility is very high - 2 out of 3 ain’t bad

In terms of the market, I am much more +ve - i DON’T expect a V shaped recovery, but I DO expect a recovery in the coming months - Chia has been lucky in a way - it established a good price and got a foothold before the dip - I have seen too many good projects sunk by a hearty dip

In my case (2700+ plots) I recognized the risk and structured my entry in order to limit capital outlay, I ensured I had a re-use for at least 50% of the farm without needing to sell it. I re-used what equipment I already had. I am pretty sure I will break even (almost there now and a single reward will put me in profit) because of those precautions and should the market tilt back up (which I am pretty confident it will ) I am sure I will profit reasonably (but miss the “get rich quick”) - not bad for a “failed” attempt

I started too late, and netspace exploded - I didn’t “win big” and was no more fortunate than others, and I am good with that.

Some you win, some you lose - and some you shrug and say - hey !

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I only have 12TB of storage space total on my farming NAS for all of my personal use storage and Chia. If I ever wanted to download anything or if I had a big photography project I wanted to do, I would literally need to image a drive and expand it to something larger. That would have to be done using my USB to SATA adapter (IMO, a PITA).

Do I plan on plotting, stopping, selling, or maxing out my storage and plotting till full then just farming? I think I plan on probably going on ebay and getting a really large internal HDD or 2 or maybe a couple of really large USB HDDs and plotting to those and then once they are full, calling it quits. I will not spend a lot more money.

Trashing it, it’s a failure.

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geekwithoutacause:
Trashing it, it’s a failure.

What constitutes a true failure? As I was always told, there are no true failures, only learning experiences or wastes of time and money/resources. So if you decide to scrap your system and repurpose, do you consider this a learning experience or a waste of time and money/resources?

I’ll plot all I have bought and keep it online. My drives are all enterprise grade and have better resell value than the USB shit most people have in case things go south.

Every day there is a history of some guy trying to recover a lost or forgotten 2011-2012 BTC wallet, so the concept of failure is relative over time.

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I was in this open eyed from when I started. I did the math and realized I was too late to make any profit whatsoever before my 2nd plot finished.

By that time I had calculated the best possible plotting/farming setup, and it still came up losing, not by a small margin, but by an order of magnitude. {so yes, for those paying attention, if that meant Chia rocketing to 16K€ the numbers might certainly have hit break even).

II also recognized how Chia plotting excersized so many parts of the system. Much more than GPU mining. So from the ‘fun’ perspective it was a real blast.

My descision was to aim 100% for fun, with 0€ investment. I looked mainly at plotting overnight on my desktop, sometimes during the day when I knew I wouldn’t need the memory or threads for other stuff, and farming from currently unoccupied space on a NAS used for backups. I typically create 2 plots per 24 hours, experimenting with different settings and examining the impact. I could go 6-8 plots/24hrs on this setup if I’d go all in, but why would I?

Ofc, just like everybody else I check each morning whether my 50 plots have managed to get lucky. I’m a sucker for lotteries just like the rest of you.

Oh, and I do take my min/max single plot game seriously. I managed to squeeze my plot times from a 8,5 Hrs at first down to just a few seconds over 6 Hrs.

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I’ve made money from Chia, but it’s a scam. :roll_eyes::poop:

So you’re knowingly contributing to a scam? If you don’t believe in crypto, this project, or think it’s a scam. Leave, sell your XCH. But please stop trolling the rest of us here.

Chia is not a scam, Bitcoin is not a scam. If you can’t be a positive contributor here, please move along!

That is just plain a mistake on the person’s part for not archiving his bitcoin wallet challenge code. That would also be stupidity. Failure would be if a bridge collapses due to structural defects. That would be a “structural failure” due to a design flaw. Here, that is not a failure more than stupidity or a simple mistake we can look back on with hindsight.