I was checking my logs today with cat ~/.chia/mainnet/log/* | grep 'Found [^0] proof' and found a proof I had from a couple of days ago that resulted in no block reward. My estimated time to win is around 5-6 days, and my last (and only) reward was 14 days ago now, so the above command gives me the following output:

2021-05-01T23:30:21.379 harvester chia.harvester.harvester: INFO 2 plots were eligible for farming 23cdba0e43... Found 1 proofs. Time: 0.59239 s. Total 646 plots
2021-05-12T21:32:27.786 harvester chia.harvester.harvester: INFO 2 plots were eligible for farming 5b375f8fc2... Found 1 proofs. Time: 0.54223 s. Total 1430 plots

As can be seen there isnâ€™t any timing issues with finding the proof. There seems to be conflicting answers on the likelihood of this happening (i.e. assuming no issues with response time etc and a better proof was found by someone else) but was wondering what numbers others are seeing?

And my sample size is pretty low so hoping Iâ€™m not missing on on rewards for 50% of all my found proofs going forward as Iâ€™m seeing 2-3x the estimated time to win as is.

I get the general sense that time of proof response matters, since the devs are obsessed with it, hence the 5 second harvester proof check warning (thank god that has been added) and the 30 second harvester proof hard limit.

I remember many keybase chat lectures if your proof check time was over a second, even.

Interesting. I had 2 day average and now 16 days without any rewards as well (4 day avg for reward currently). Before that I got some Chia so setup should work. All 1.15. All no upnpn apart from two farmers on two different networks. Farmers have port forwarded 8444 and its open when checked. My NAS from time to time reach 5.5 second responce time with warnings. Worst I seen is 8 seconds. I am waiting for parts to upgrade network even more to reduce these timings with a dedicated NAS network. A majority of plots are from USB with 0.1-1 second responce times. I guess this should be well within the 30 second limit? Connection list on GPU shows a ton of connections so network seems to be working fine as well. I guess just very unlucky?

Iâ€™ve found 3 proofs over the last week, with only winning 2 XCH once.
The winning proof took 12.89 seconds - so maybe i got lucky on that one?
The proofs that didnâ€™t win took 0.7seconds and 12.8 seconds.
What are the odds of a 0.7second proof not winning?

Whoever first solve the challenge get the reward: Your ans is broadcast to the network and timelord will verify it. So it just happened that someone is faster in 0.7 sec and there is no one in the 12.8-second case.

so, in case anyone is following along, i just won a reward today, making me feel a little better about my setup, but not entirelyâ€¦ Iâ€™m still not clear on why I didnâ€™t win any previously. No one seems to have a firm answer on Keybase or elsewhere