Will Netspace Stop at Twenty?

Hi Guys,

I understand that everybody here is in search for profits farming and pooling as soon as possible.

The profit is completely related to the netspace increase.

Looking at the log version of netspace, sounds like to stop growing at 20.000EiB. Of course it is for the current XCH price.

What you guys think about the Netspace to balance with current XCH price?


Stop at 20? I doubt it. I would love it, but I doubt it. Looking at the chart, it is definitely slowing. But there is no telling what the future holds. I think that something is going to come along that will make a huge difference in the trend. Just don’t know what that is yet. Maybe hardware costs, hardware shortage, drop in the price of XCH, jump in the price of XCH, the release of pooling so replotting comes into play … I think something is coming that will dramatically change the trajectory of the netspace growth. Will it begin to climb rapidly or will it pull back? Time will tell.

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It’s an S curve, you’ll know the top when it forms :slight_smile:
But Bram Cohen predicted 20 and then slow burn towards 100 over a long time.

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Slowing? Seriously, I can sit down and setup some plots and by the time I get them going, the counter has gone ca-chiaing up, up, up. I’ve just barely been able to keep my .0004% place by plotting 7/24 over the last weeks!

My guess is longer term there will be a netspace stabilization at around a 6-9 month ROI, but who knows when the current irrationality will end. Could be soon, could be late.

I think we are going to see a spike in netspace once pools are opened up. Some people are holding out plotting until then, I being one of them.

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Short answer? No. But it does seem to be slowing, at least in the short term.

Remember a little movement high up on a log scale is a very big movement on a linear scale.

People holding off for official pools makes sense, but… a lot have capitulated and gone to hpool and others are returning their disks or selling them now they are still within return 30 day window and / or resale prices are still inflated.

I just made it to a (probably) rounded up 0.0001% and I have 14TB and counting the other day. That in the grand scheme is peanuts. Can I maintain it? No telling. I will try, but eventually, once a date is announced when pools can begin releasing dates when they are going live, then I will start exploring my options in pools and stop creating solo plots.

Will the netspace explode beyond 20? no telling, but I think it could. It has definately slowed in anticipation of officially sanctioned pools. That we can all agree on.

Ok; Here is my prdiction:

  • We will see a bit of a slowdown till pools release. This is completely irrational as there is no reason to stop plotting now and replot when you want to join pools

  • We will see a moderate speedup until 2 weeks after release of pools. This is the people starting plotting that space they were holding onto, while others are just repolotting

  • around 4-6 weeks later we will see the netspace leveling off or even shrinking as pool disillusion sets in. It still baffles me some people seem to think pools are suddenly going to make their plots profitable.{you’ll want to sell or return your storage bought at a premium price before this as resale prices will crash around this period)

  • longer term Chia, if it keeps a high profile; will just settle on the same ROI horizon as other minable cryptos

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Given the current trend it can slowdown around 25, with pooling giving it to 30 maybe. That’s like double I initially expected for the entire year, so do not rely on my predictions :rofl:. Pooling will not have a huge effect initially as most people will simply replot space already committed, so it’s not like every space dedicated to pooling goes to actually increase the netspace.

Then the netspace will go up or down according to coin price, with whatever global crypto cycle we are in, bull or bear.

I don’t see it going to 100 anytime soon unless price explodes or some drastic improvements are made regarding the ability of farming without running a full node.

Another possible trend is people leaving hpool “en masse” after official pooling is available, that can even drive netspace significantly down while they figure what to do. I am curious if hpool itself is going to offer a migration path to its own “official protocol” pool

The top 5 Chia farmers own just over 50% of total storage, somewhere around 9,000 PiB:

1 xch1f0ryxk6qn096hefcwrdwpuph2hm24w69jnzezhkfswk0z2jar7aq5zzpfj 3,839 (38.39%) (6,912.37 PiB) 1,786
2 xch1jp6frj3ecddur7dxak3n7lq0j75ltquh2zyd44epdu0d6704y2hqyky5hf 872 (8.72%) (1,570.09 PiB) 406
3 xch1rzjlfk5mdml0rnjd7x4je32ur75trk7cv0nupndp20skxv2yjfks90j66k 152 (1.52%) (273.69 PiB) 74
4 xch147pv24sym0n6ywnpqm4gzrxkt0mj50hs0w8qu24krv7fqx9kgkgq50fetm 129 (1.29%) (232.27 PiB) 54
5 xch10tfnu8pl3563juy4wrm8glegu5ua6lyuhvsfs56mk2fd3hh5pk8qudrhf5 121 (1.21%) (217.87 PiB) 52

In my opinion, most of this storage was paid for, setup and ready for advanced plotters to fill them on day one or brought on as needed. 9,000PiB is a huge amount of storage.

I think that at this point whales are continuing to expand as fast as they can, but hope that they too will be subject to supply issues and have to slow their expansion.

I agree with the above comment suggesting a slower ride from 20-30EiB and a slower and more linear progression going forward from there.

If the expansion continues at anywhere near recent rates then small farmers are doomed, pools or not.

I recently worked my numbers and found that buying storage and NVMe to produce and store my plots is about $1.50 CAD for a K32. Using default settings, the advanced Chia calculator says that that plot should earn an average of $1.50 CAD in six months and estimates total network space of 150EiB !!!

I do not think we are going to hit 150EiB in six months so finally, it looks like the Advanced Chia calculator may be forecasting a bit conservatively. Then again, I don’t think I am going to see a six month return on my investment either.

Hopefully the growth will become sensible and soon …

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That top 40% one is hpool though, so this consist of an unknown - but for sure large - number of individual farmers


Thanks for bringing hpool storage ownership to my attention. I had no idea they were that large.

Puts the importance of hpool and pooling in general into focus for me. I had downplayed this discussion till now as I have no interest in pooling.

I will pay more attention now …


I don’t think it’s stopping at 20 exabytes, but the former 70% a week growth going down every week is good news. They get rich overnight types are dropping out, or at least scaring other people off from starting up. I joined hpool yesterday made .001 xch in 12 hours. That’s about $1.50 a day for 12 terabyte plots, but that’s if you’re dumb enough to sell at these low prices, I’m waiting till at least 10,000 or bust. The small amounts at Bitcoin level prices become worth in the hundreds that’s what you got to be looking forward to I believe, every crypto has to go up with time and inflation or it will fail ultimately.

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We have to believe either the currency eventually will stop going down in value or it will eventually rise. As with anything that is being commercially traded like stocks and bonds, they either start high and stay high, start low and go up in value OR there is the dreaded outcomes… Start high and tank in value and get delisted or start low and go lower and get delisted.

Which outcome am I expecting out of Chia? Well… It started higher than I expected but it is on a downward trend at the moment. I do not want exchanges to delist it.

I as an American can’t really even safely/legally (that I know of and have researched properly) trade XCH directly for cash. I would only do direct trades for cash if I had any XCH. I heard other countries like Canada have similar issues as well. I’d have to use an exchange like Gate.io and trade XCH for USTD or BTC or other crypto or Silver and then take USTD or BTC or Silver etc and cash that out. I could go to certain ATMs/kiosks in my city that can deposit BTC or certain other crypto (via US$) into my checking account; my bank can’t do it though.

Honestly, I think we’ll hit 30 in 2 weeks or so, hopefully it will start to slow down a bit but it’s not really looking like it.

People replotting for pools might help a bit, but that is still some time away. Anyone who is still plotting now has space left and will keep plotting until they run out before they start replotting.

That is not 100% accurate. There are 4 things to do when you run out of storage space on your farmer.

  1. Just farm and stop plotting when you run out of usable HDD space
  2. run chia plot check command and
    a keep the good timing plots
    b replot over the bad timing plots, eventually you will have all good timing plots and run into option 1
  3. convert the plotter(s) into farming system(s)
  4. purchase more storage for the farmer system eventually

I plan to just do option 1 before doing option 4. I don’t have the funds right now.

Well yes, I was a bit brief there. I just meant that people who still have space left to plot, won’t start replotting until they have that filled and not wanting to buy anymore so that will keep adding to the growth.

I find this fluctuation in the netspace really weird though. Like just today, it suddenly dropped massively, I mean we’re talking about 500 PiB that just went offline, after it grew by 1100 in the 24 hours before that and we’ve seen that more recently.
Anyone got any ideas how that might be happening?