# Win probability calculator for chia farmers

Hey everyone,

we have developed a win probability calculator over at https://chia.garden. What’s wrong with https://chiacalculator.com/ you ask? Well, nothing, we love it! Ours just gives you a different perspective: it displays the probability distribution of winning some blocks over a time period, which is arguably more important for smaller farmers than theoretical fractions of XCH you would routinely see at the chiacalculator.

Hope you find it useful: Win Probability Calculator

Chia.Garden is a group of crypto-enthusiasts who build a healthy ecosystem around Chia: open, secure, and decentralized. If you’d like to help our cause and work with us on projects like this, shoot us an email on join@chia.garden. Currently, we are looking for developers, designers, and content writers, but everyone’s support is appreciated.

P.S.: You can also sign up for our farming pool. Three more days to secure a 0% fee offer (for the first year of farming).

3 Likes

Could you explain how it’s used?

I assume I have to enter my current size of plots and my estimated netspace in N days, correct? So, if I have 100TiB and expect a netspace of 3EiB in 14 days, it would look like this.

Which means I have a 27% chance of winning 2 blocks (4XCH) in the next 14 days, right?

I think it would be a good idea to switch netspace to EiB.

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If you’re taking suggestions on this calculator I have several that would incorporate some of the benefits of chia calculator, but make the tool more useful overall.

1. Gerhard’s solution is a good starting point. I am assuming, but it hasn’t been up long enough to know, does this formula pull the API to identify the Total Netspace? If so run run a basic calculation on it and adjust to EiB if it’s over 1,000,000 TiB. ZiB if it’s over 1,000,000,000 TiB etc. Building it to at least Yottabyte should keep it useful for a long time without updates. Go further if you just never want to touch it again.

2. ChiaCalculator has Netspace growth available in advanced options, but with no solid way of estimating based on the existing trend line, because prior data isn’t shown. if you incorporate the change over the last 5 hours(or even over the last day for simplicity) and project that change going forward into the chart based on the # of days farmed selected. That should help tighten up the accuracy. I’d need to dig into my trig/calc knowledge to figure out how to better approximate the existing curve without bringing in too much noise from the inconsistencies in the net space growth. It’s been a little bit since I touched that stuff.

3. Add a box for additional plots created per day for those that haven’t finished filling up their space yet, with a max check box to prevent it from filling more than they would have space available to fill.

4. On hover over the dots in addition to showing the % of the given value include an x% chance of # of blocks or greater, summing all the % value to the right of the dot you are hovering over. Using the default you have listed if you hovered over 1 block it would say 97.112% chance of at least 1 block.

I’ve got a few more tweak ideas, but what I’ve laid out is quite a bit as it is so I’ll leave the rest for now. If I could inspect the code for it I might be able to find a way to tweak it myself for what I’m requesting, but considering all my coding experience is with obscure DCS and PLC software it might take me a minute to spin up on whatever you are using so it’s probably better to let the pro’s handle it.

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Thats cool, you may want to check k their trademark policy and discuss with them if you haven’t already. They said having things with the word chia first might be an issue but they were open to discussions, but I’m not Chia Networks.

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Good idea indeed! Updated.

Your understanding is correct. The graph shows you that you’re ~12% likely to be unlucky and win nothing within those two weeks, you have a 25% chance of winning a single block, 27% chance of winning two blocks and so on. Each block rewards 2XCH.

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They said having things with the word chia first might be an issue

We’re discussing this on chiaforum and the most popular third party services are called chiaexplorer and chiacalculator… Dev’s are aware of our existence (we’re in contact to bring the pool online as soon as it’s released) so it should be fine. We will need to rename if the core team insists, but so far it does not seem like they intend to enforce that rule against legitimate services.

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We have just released a small update to the calculator: the values you have entered in a calculator fields are now “remembered” in a URL, which makes it easy to share your graphs with other people!

Just copy the URL once you’ve finished setting the values and share it. As simple as that! Here’s an example.

Release post (roughly the same as here).

Enjoy.

1 Like

They just responded to this on stream, chiaexplore is the only licensed trademark user. and pools will not be allowed to use chia as the first word in the pool, like chiapool or the chia pool to prevent appearing to favor one pool.

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I’ve seen the translation. If we receive a request from Chia we will host the pool under a different name. So far it hasn’t been an issue.