Realistic bro? Is not just realistic, it’s probable!! You can look for yourself, BTC and ETH made similar path, if you believe that Chia is a new paradigma in the system, how the fuck you doubt the this will happen?
Of course I’m talking about an absolute best case scenario… Let’s f… go to 3k with in 24 months
I bet the max chia reaches in 24 months is around ~$100. and that’s extremely optimistic. that would still be over 3x today
A good target on the dart board. If the IPO filing barely cracked $45 (briefly), they’ll need a market bullrun, going public, and third secret-sauce-ingredient (the halving I guess?) to get some movement. We’ve already tried carbon credits, NFTs, dipped our toes into gaming… I don’t think there is functionality that can be added to the project that will bump the price up, it has to be bigger picture stuff.
…because you’re only looking at the immediate surface rather than the impacts the underlying change has on the whole ecosystem. The production of coins today is at its highest inflation rate, meaning the coins created on block rewards impact the cost of it the most right now, and a halving would reduce the pressure of that inflation to a much lower level, with the ideal reaction resulting in an increase of price as there are fewer coins to meet demand.
For the first three years there will be roughly 10,000,000 coins created, so if you continued that on into the 4th year it would be a roughly 33% inflation rate, but with the halving you now drop that down to a 16% inflation rate, so if demand remains the same while supply drops, price increases to meet demand by encouraging more people to sell coins at that higher price.
Now after six years with that halving rate there will be roughly 15,000,000 coins, so if you continued that expansion into the 7th year it would be a roughly 11% inflation rate, but with the second halving (every 3 years for the first 12) you now drop that down to a 5% inflation rate, so if demand remains the same… are you starting to get the picture?
You can fill in the gaps between and calculate the rate of inflation for each year and see the decreasing pressure over time, allowing demand to push price until enough farmers are convinced to meet it at that price, this is the strategy of the XCH HODLERS, to take advantage of the decreasing inflation rate, farmers are selling holding or a mixture of both depending on need, but the farmers who hold more longer will be able to amplify the benefits on halvings with pressure on the price from demand, aka events like the IPO, more governments joining the carbon markets for their international treaty, other businesses finally making the leap to Chia because they see their governments using it, etc etc.
So today the strategy with a higher inflation rate may be different from the strategy of tomorrow with a shrinking inflation rate, the only difference is the cost to get into the game later on compared to today, the instant gratification crowd wants it all today but the timeline is pretty clear so the longer you can hold the greater the potential if you believe demand will increase over time amplifying your rewards.
So am I worried, no, I see the potential, I see the things setting Chia up for success and plan to be a XCH HODLER for the above timelines. Does it sting a little seeing the all-time high price when few had access to exchanges and were able to take advantage of that, yeah, but I also see that happening again but with access to everyone amplifying it beyond what you saw in the beginning. If you believe Chia will succeed then its pretty darn clear what your timeline will likely be, thanks to halvings, especially when it dips to 5% thats going to be a VERY exciting time.
Now should you buy more farm or buy more coin, well, use what you got and don’t stop for sure, but whether you expand hardware or take the easier route of just buying coins is up to personal choice.
Seems Kevin has picked a number that would be stunning returns for any other 2 year investment.
I got my Chia jersey ready.
It has no compelling use case. After all this time they haven’t been able to prove its usefulness. It’s a fart in a wind storm. How does the price surge with that in mind? Wish really hard?
I think being the source of settlement for governments complying with an international treaty they signed, is a COMPELLING use case… which is whats being done right now, you know the thing other chains have been saying they want to do for the past decade, get government and financial institutions involved. Yet according to you, thats not compelling, very interesting position you have there.
Green Transformation, Carbon Markets & Blockchain: A Dialogue with the World Bank and Chia Network
Above is a presentation from the Tokyo College with the World Bank (Gemma Torras Vives) and Chia (Bram Cohen) going over things that may help you understand the global impact slowly building on chain right now. This use case isn’t the chicken scratch the average crypto today is going after, instead Chia is going after being the settlement layer for international treaties. (Some might call this a compelling use case.)
bro… My worst case scenario is $668, WORST. Lets do it, if XCH don’t go futher then $100 more or less with in 24 months I you send you 10 XCH. But if the price hit 668 you will send me 10 XCH, THEN I will let those 10 in the same adress until it hit 2k, and I’ll send back 5 XCH to you. We have a deal?
Just to your knowledge, we’ll probable go to 100 bucks THIS year or early next year, feb or march.
LOL fair enough… But would be a funny bet.
Blockchain has a high use case! When you know how stock market manipulation happens (naked shortselling google AMC) and our FIAT currency is just air, with a blockchain you can’t sell stuff wich not exist and you never had to overleverage you. Chia offers the same benefits of dezentralization like bitcoin but with far less energy consumption. Don’t look just on prices learn how the PONZI scheme in our financial system works!
soo…given the recent news…still sticking to your prediction?
I mean, I want you to be right, but how 3k is justified?
Stick with:
3k is possible (extreme best case scenario).
668 bucks in the worst case scenario.
news does not matter at all.
I know is hard to see it, but liquidity is the only thing that matter.
Buy at $23, sell at $3,000, return a profit of 130 times, which is a dream
And that will be an average day in “crypto” for most of late people, but not for us. Oh no.
right now, the average farmer has 8 years ROI just on HDDs. It is all about efficiency, and cashflow. I can still make money with 15$/XCH, can you?
Halving will most likely adjust price based on the most efficient farmers. XCH will most likely drop down to 15$ or even less, and then doubles…maybe…Cashflow remains the same.
BTC halving times paranoias are most likely gone. I still wait for 200k/BTC as that S2F guy “predicted”…I really love these kids who think ROFL
How much XCH should we hoard before next March’s halving?
As much as you can afford!
You can be right man. That said, I will not be surprise with 100 bucks Xch before Jan/2024.
