Ok, which game we’re playing actually?
Let’s explain with a simple example:
For the sake of simplicity, let’s consider we have only 10 farmers, with 1 TB each of Plot (10 plot). Let’s say everyone spent 1k dollars to buy that storage.
Let’s even consider that if you sell 1 XCH, you can earn 1k dollars back.
Let’s say the total amount of reward each day is 100 XCH, so by the end of day, everyone get 10 XCH each (in a statistically perfect world), because everyone share 10% of the Netspace. So, everyone earn 10k dollars per day.
Maybe 9 out of 10 farmers are very happy with that (who not?), they spent 1k dollars to have 10k back every day… it’s a wonderful thing… but suddenly one of them think: “wait, if i buy 2k dollars in more storage, i can hit 3TB of storage, and i will own 25% of the total Netspace (3TB/12TB). I can get now 25XCH per day, and i will earn 25k dollars per day!!! ”
Here’s where the things get complicated because one of them get the 25% of the reward, but the other that would be happy with just 10k dollars per day, now they gain only(!?!) 8,3333k$ per day (poor guys) for sharing 8.3333% of the Netspace (1TB/12TB) and they say:
-“wait, where are gone my 10k??”
-“don’t you know? A guy in the netspace bought other 2TB of space and then the system reward him more”
-“damn mate, that’s not fair… why don’t we buy it too?”
-“you are right… i think i will buy 10TB with my last day earnings… you should it too, so we can earn the same amount.”
-“nice idea mate! ggwp”.
At this point you can realize by yourself where my example want to go… at some point, to earn and mantain the same amount of 10k per day, everyone in the Netspace have to regularly spent in storage, because it’s impossible to speak with each other and tell them to stop buy storage or you will ruin the balance of this well thought system. So if i don’t want to lose my 10k per day, and i don’t want to waste all my previously investment, i can’t stop buy HDD, or at a certain point, i’ll be out of this game. It’s like a dog chasing it’s tail.
And the things get worse (like in the real scenario) if we consider the entry of other 1000 farmers with 1TB of space… you can’t even just buy 2-3 TB to remain in the game at this point.
What i want to say is, ok it’s nice to get some Chia at some point, but the things will deteriorate at the speed of light and sooner or later, you have to quit from the game, because you can’t mantain thousand of HDD.
Any other variable you think to set in this game, it will be only pejorative, even the price of a single XCH. If it raise, then the netspace will raise, and this will be always a zero sum game (at the best case).
i tried to partecipate at the beginning with a ridiculous 30TB of space, but i quickly get it that there are no chance to win for hobbist/little farmer, thus the project, for me, has failed. I even thinking that the chance of winning in the online calculator (or on the GUI) are inflated and 4 month to win, it’s not a mean case like maybe you can win in 1 month, or maybe you can win in 10 month… but it’s surely 10 month (at least, reading other experience) increasing every day.
Sorry for my english, but i hope you get the point.