Chia Farming Profitability

Trying to understand how exactly can i calculate my chia farm profitability.

I am using this to calculate my current profitability and compare it with my pool data.
If i put here 1000 plots, it calculates Expected time to win 3 months and $210.67 / month.

To compare with my pool data several things must be considered:

  1. Current pool luck. You can not compare only a few days, because some days it may be >100% others may be <100%. to average this you need at least 15 days on this pool.
  2. Pool fee - varies from 0% to 1%.
  3. You have to add also the 0,25 XCH, you are expected to win once during 3 months period. For 15 days pool test thats 0.042 XCH you have to add over you pool payments. (it is valid for the sample with the 1000plots above)
  4. Stale plots indicated by the pool
  5. Chia price fluctuations during this 15 days period

Am i missing something here?

Looks like a pretty good approach, although I think it would give a better comparison if you use chiaexplorer’s xch/TiB value to compare. Because the expected time to win is a very iffy value. (or use both side by side.

I would factor in the linear (at least roughly for now) growth in Chia Netspace, which over time will slowly decrease the reward, this can be done by setting to advance and set both the days to just 1, and assign a value for linear growth (looks like ~ 120 PiB per day now).

For 100TiB at 30 EiB, 0.025 daily was possible.
Now at 32 EiB, that is already out of the window.

You are missing anything? Calculation now expects 3 month win target. If you calculate after 1 month and half, the win target will not be 1.5 month.