Chia slowly disappears over the horizon

V small farmer 100 plots
started at 3 months
then 4 then 5…

Now we are up to 9 months

I feel like i’m slowly waving goodbye…


what you’re saying is, you haven’t won anything in 9 months so you’re pulling out ? or 100 plots a miniscule compared to the netspace ? lol

No what i’m saying is
I’ve got 100 plots
1 month ago it was going to take 3 months to win
Now it is going to take 9 months…
Give it another month and I may have to wait 10 years…lol

Yes, the creator of Chia predicts 100 EiB, and I think it will get there. Only question is how fast… netspace is currently at 11.9 EiB.


I see the same Numbers, And wondering the same thing. The part I have going for me is that I did not invest $100’s or even $1000’s into this project. I took a pc that was already going to be running and a few old HDD’s and laid my plots. I’m still plotting, But once I have my existing drives full I plan to just let it go. The cost to run will be only a few dollars a month.

I look at it as a standing lottery ticket that I don’t need to go anywhere to buy it and check the numbers later.


You buy 1 $5.00 lottery ticket and sit back and say ‘This is the winner’ then you are standing still. There is no shame in this. You can plot a bit ( to the extent of the HDD you are willing to buy/fill).
I’m doing the same, I have a number of plots. But, I’m also waiting for the pools where like a work lottery pool, we get more people which equals more size which increases the chance to win.
The only downside is the bad actor ~ those that are pooling outside the app. It’s hard to see my <10 tb stack up against the 4+ Eib. There are ways to address this and I think they will get some controls in soon

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I don’t know where the term decentralized comes from…
Because all I can see is enormous whales with massive farms…

Surely Chia is now firmly centralised in a few massive farms…

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Crypto decentralization isn’t measured at token distribution level. Number of nodes/time lords/plots/ and many other factors are what make a crypto decentralized i think. It’s from a security standpoint. The term ‘51% attack’ has more correlation with ‘decentralized’ then token distribution.

*I see you never even mentioned tokens. I will leave my comment here anyway.

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Block 1 was in March, where are you getting 9 months?? :upside_down_face: The trolling around here is getting tiresome

He means ‘Estimated time to win: 9 months’, which is a value shown in the GUI.

I don’t think it works the way you think it does. It’s just chance. It doesn’t mean you will win 9 months from now, it’s more an average based upon total net size Vs your own personal farm. You could win in 5 mins.

I could flip a coin and get 4 heads in a row. You could argue that I’m then due a tails, but of course it’s still 50% chance.

Scale that to what is essentially a coin with an ever growing number of sides, the more sides it gets the harder it is for a single face to come up.

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I’m not a troll

I was referring to the estimated time to win in the GUI…


Good analogy…

But like most I will just keep checking…

Been a while since we saw anyone on the forum posting their first win…
Perhaps it has just become very rare…

Like many people on the forum, I am kicking myself that I didn’t start farming on day 1.
I had been following the chia development for years…no excuses…just lazy and stupid…

I think them putting an estimated time to win was not so well thought out. I think a Percent chance to win would be a better representation. Cause a Farmer with 1 plot could win 10 minutes after the plot is live verse some one with 10,000 plots could NEVER win.

well hpool using their wallet and their new users to farm with same token
so they are 40% and chance 50% on any block for now

and hpool users (ripping them) farm with xch1f0ryxk6qn096hefcwrdwpuph2hm24w69jnzezhkfswk0z2jar7aq5zzpfj wallet 40% chance there

1 top hpool
Won 34.43% of the last 10,000 blocks MONOPOL

2 dont know
Won 8.96% of the last 10,000 blocks

Brother, its not just you, many of us have simply purchased expensive lotto tickets in hopes of a successful strike, to me it’s a matter of months before I give up, eventually there will be competitive PoS(& not “piece of sh…”) coins, we will be ready to deploy an already setup system - a percentage of winning which, if/when I do win, I will devote to infinitely high risk trading of ETH and try to win big… And sort of continue the process on the side in hopes of growing a sizable amount before a cashout…a mix of mine to trade not give them cash money kind of a thing…but I donno… Won’t happen here, we just wait for the next ship and board that…

There are hundreds of thousands of nodes on the network, and 4608 chances of winning per day. So even an average-sized node has ~100:1 odds of getting a reward on any given day. The 50th biggest node only controls 0.1% of the network. Yes there are a handful of whales, but they don’t have much power.

Unofficial pools are an issue, but they won’t last much longer in their current form. They rip off their customers and get ripped off in return, so they’ll start losing honest customers to official pools and maybe be forced to join the official pooling protocol.

Chia’s decentralization is alive and well. In fact, it might end up being the most decentralized network ever.

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Probably naive… But personally I would love to see a network with millions of nodes but with each node limited to a certain number of plots…
Yes i know, the large farmers would just set up many nodes.
But wouldn’t it be nice if the network was truly distributed to millions of small farmers…

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aah shucks man, i get what you mean lol

Exactly. You can’t prevent Sybil attacks, but at least you can make a network where there’s no advantage to performing such an attack. PoW and PoST accomplish this. PoS does not.