China Crackdown and the effects on Chia

Even the UK have issues with binance.

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Some thoughts on this topic:
(1) Chia still is the most energy efficiency crypto. If it is not the future of crypto, I think the infrastructure established (JBODs, plotters, storage) will be useful for the next “green” crypto.
(2) China is eliminating crypto, as it is a well accepted “investment” alternative. Their primary individual investment market is real estate. Their real estate market is currently crashing, with cascading effects. With real estate crashing, they are trying to curtail / slow panic selling out of real estate and the flight to crypto markets. Keep in mind they don’t have a stock market like we do and they don’t have access to most fair global markets. Crypto is as close as they can get. They are blaming the crypto ban on crime and illegal transactions which is a false flag. They want to slow the flight from real estate.
(3) The off lining of China decreases the network for all cryptos, but should drive up the rewards for all miners. It also decreases the giant pools that own a huge % of BTC and others. I see that as a positive. We are getting back to decentralized ledger status.
(4) this legislation “decreases liquidity” of the crypto market as some have said, however crypto has been a HODL market, so liquidity isn’t as important as HODLers in the long term. I expect to see downward pricing pressure on all cryptos in the short term as China unloads. Buying opportunity if you are a serious crypto investor.
(5) China has incredibly low utility costs. We have a more even playing field with them offline.

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Look at the charts for China and Crypto since all these bans started. They continue to make more money YOY in other countries. The Chinese have always figured out a way to skirt around the rules and they are the masters of the shell game. As someone pointed out, The UAE could welcome the entire country with open arms and farm for pennys. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Still buying the dip. Cmon pay day! :slight_smile:

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IMOP Chinese Chia farmers only have to ship their drives full of plots to a friendly country to get them back on the Chia network. Those who cannot will have to shut down, but I think most of the whales will just move their hardware.

I see their problem right now being cashflow. They need to ship HDDs and probably ASICs right now and will have little or no income while transferring. The low crypto prices make it worse. I think most Chinese traders, miners and farmers have been shaken out of their HODL mode, if any, and are now selling everything they can, while they can. Chia is just a bump on the bottom of this trend.

After the large portion of crypto hardware gets re-settled and they establish ways of safely trading their crypto again then mind-sets will return more towards “normal”.

If, on the other hand, other countries follow China’s lead in cracking down on private crypto in general, then all bets are off.

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Space pool’s homepage shows a slight upward swing for the Asia region compared to the other regions for the last couple of days. Just an observation.

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"(Kitco News) A massive market crash is coming in October, that’s according to Robert Kiyosaki, the best-selling author of ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’.

Kiyosaki’s warning of a potential U.S. stock market meltdown comes with some investment advice — hold on to your gold, silver and bitcoin positions and use cash to bargain hunt.

"Giant stock market crash coming October. Why? Treasury and Fed short of T-bills. Gold, silver, Bitcoin may crash too," Kiyosaki tweeted Sunday. “Cash best for picking up bargains after crash. Not selling gold silver Bitcoin, yet have lots of cash for life after stock market crash. Stocks dangerous. Careful.” "

Kitco likes to pitch any story that favors precious metals but I agree with Robert Kiyosaki. I think the crash is long overdue and is coming soon. I also agree in thinking that crypto prices will crash with the markets.

We are already seeing inflation. After a crash inflation would rise further and fiats will drop in value … possibly dramatically. The public will have to pay the Piper for zero percent interest and for “printing” so many trillions.

The general hope is that cryptos, like precious metals, will keep their real purchasing value and be a much better investment than fiats in a post crash world.

I bought physical gold and silver over three years ago and it is now worth two to three times what I paid for it. Gold and Silver are currently in a low and if I had fiat to spare I might but more of both now.

If stock and bond markets crash, housing markets will follow. Using cash to buy property from dis-possesed “owners” might be your most profitable use of fiat after a crash but I would find that soul numbing.

I am holding my small fiat reserve to buy crypto and other non soul killing bargains AFTER a crash and continuing to work my farm.

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I have about 10% of my portfolio in cash, waiting buying opportunities. Stocks, dividend payers, etc. In the meantime I keep plugging along with BTC ETH XCH mining.

October is notorious for speculators for being the month when “the big crash” happens October: The Month of Market Crashes?

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My strategy is to buy Chia when it downs to $20 and I will keep it for next ten years.
What is your strategy?
What are you planning to do during the October crash?

Every dip I have bought market indexes, oil, defense, and healthcare indexs. I also double down on my good dividend stocks. I don’t bother with buying crypto as I don’t like/trust the large exchanges. I HODL all virgin crypto. Same with hard silver and gold. Its tucked away in a box for my kid when they grow up.

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I have planned for such an event chain (and worse) for a long time. I refuse to base my life and effort planning for disaster that may not come but I have given it some thought and made provisions.

I am too old and comfortable in my cave to run for the hills so I have made plans to shelter in place. I bought my gold and silver well before covid and when covid first hit (before prices rose and some goods disappeared for a while) I filled a very large closet space with food, dry goods, and even some medical supplies. I also made some other preparations…

If history is any guide, even after a fiat crash, my gold and silver will still buy needed goods that I have not already stocked and at fair trade value.

See Germany post WWI.

The effects of close to zero percent interest and the many, many trillions “printed” since 2008 by almost every major country dwarf what they did and what happened to the German people and economy during and after WWI. IMOP the next crash will make 1929 look like a tiny soap bubble in comparison. We live in interesting times.

Hopefully it will not get that bad, but it may be as bad or worse.

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Maybe im just not good enough at math and coding,
but since the beginning of zero and negative interest Im waiting for an implosion. No need to say, Im not a fan of modern monetary theory.
Now with corona, de-globalisation and the chinese real-estate-crash, I dont have any hope left, that a global financial crisis can be avoided.

The golden question now is, which assets will be stable or increase in value.

In my oppinion,
good stocks, commodities and a handful! of cryptos will rise extremely, real estates will follow but much later and not in general.
Most of the useless, luxurious stuff today will lose its value almost completely, when ppl cannot afford the things they really need for living.

Crypto-world should follow the same rules. Thats why Im investing here the same way I did with my other assets. Chia has some technological arguments on its side, so it might be one of the very few lucky survivors, but unless it gets any real life use, it could as well die within days like 99% of the other cryptos.

Gotta say, in some countries preppers might look smarter soon, than they did until now :sweat_smile:

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Do you remember how the 2008 crisis began?
Do you remember some of the signals hinting that there will be a crisis?

Sry, but 2008 I didnt have any investments yet and the crisis didnt affect me at all.
Also, I dont see any parallels between then and now.

I see the following parallels.

  • The price of iron and copper was too high because housing was massively built. There were raised cranes on every corner. :slight_smile:
  • Credits were given without collateral.
  • The price of oil and gas rose sharply.
  • Unemployment was extremely low.
  • All this has led to high inflation and impossibility to pay out of credits.
  • The balloon burst after a company related to properties goes bankrupt.
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Not sure which markets ur talking about, but the real-estate-crash in china now is nothing like the situation in the states back then. Imho Its just a minor problem with rly bad timing.

We are talking about Global stock and bond markets though the Chinese real estate crash is also an interesting indicator.

I am talking about vastly over priced stocks based on almost interest free loans to corporations. These loans have invariably been used for stock buy backs and to increase dividends. These actions do nothing to increase corporate value but do increase stock prices immensely and falsely.

IMOP Quantitative easing around the world has been Corporate welfare, used to falsely inflate the markets.

The housing market also mirrors 2008 in one incredible way. Bad AAA derivatives based on bad mortgages turned AAA bonds into junk and this was the basis of the market collapse.

" The 2008 financial crisis was primarily caused by derivatives in the mortgage market. The issues with derivatives arise when investors hold too many, being overleveraged, and are not able to meet margin calls if the value of the derivative moves against them.", Google 1st answer to, “Did derivatives cause 2008 crash?”

Did we learn anything? Today they have actually relaxed the rules and regulations around mortgage derivatives and today the total “value” of AAA mortgage derivatives is far greater than it was in 2008.

With super low interest loans to the public, housing prices are at an all time high. If and when interest rates rise we will see many mortgage repayments become well beyond the means of many of the people who “own” their homes. Just as in 2008, many foreclosures will be inevitable and those AAA derivatives will become junk once again.

My only surprise is at how long they have managed to keep this circus tent propped up.

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Cannot add anything about stocks, bonds and interest rates but only agree.

China is currently trying to regulate the market with the lessons learned 2008. One reason, why I think, its a minor problem.

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It is called the Ringmaster - The SEC - They are supposed to be on our side and be the financial cops, but the SEC is so in deep with Hedge Funds and the market in general, it is obscene and disgusting. Who allows people to naked short a stock or trade in a dark pool that no one has access to except the mega wealthy? The SEC and Gensler are not doing their job. In fact, I know of no Chairman really ever doing their job. I wish that would change to make it a level playing field as many more retail folks are more trained than ever before. DD is done at exceptional levels these days. DC is just one big swamp of crap. IMHO TERM LIMITS! :slight_smile:

I would take it further.

The Corporate money runs the governments. The privately owned International Federal Reserve Cartel runs the Corporations and all of the markets.

The owners of the various branches of the privately and secretly owned Federal Reserve Banking Cartel do not consider money to be wealth. They both create, own, and profit from the money supply. Money is power and a tool to extract wealth from the masses.

Most of the truly super rich are not listed in the Forbes 500. They consider the tripod of wealth to be land, precious metals, and fine art (which retains value as they trade amongst themselves and is a status symbol to boot).

A small percent of the “1%” own and/or control a true majority of the world’s “wealth”.

The markets are just tools they use to turn the masses money into more wealth.

IMOP this is also a big part of why the central banking system and its owners do not like crypto they do not own and control. They do not like anyone else having the ability to create money.

US politics have become a Roman horse race with Red and Blue teams having the same master who just wants to corrode the system. IMOP this is intentional and designed to sow dissension inviting reaction. Hegelian Dialect.

If you believe as I do that most elections worldwide today are decided by Corporate money and Corporate Mass Media then you also believe they have become just another distraction and mis-direction.

Video is super factual and manages to be humorous and compelling. I highly recommend watching! :sunglasses:

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Good CEO’s (Chairman) get bumped out by the super wealthy Angel Investors and Institutions and the story is always the same …

They cash big time, and the replacement is worth nothing … look at eg Mark Pincus former CEO of Zynga who got forced to resign by the big guys, at one time a multi billion dollar corp… the large investors wanted him removed and so it happened and so did the vision Mark had with Zynga died …

He was the first as far as I know that even battled allmighty Facebook and introduced cryptocurrency payments helas that was short lived I believe… since I left ZNGA I didn’t follow much of news anymore …

But same story happens elsewhere, GoodGame Studios which I still see partner earnings is a fraction of what it once was … peak +2000 employees … now … a fraction …

A crash, is for them a win , they don’t care about all the peasants that invested and are losing money, they have more than enough billions to buy up the liquidation of stocks/shares/crypto etc …

Regarding China … like said above … meh … take it with a grain of salt the big ones are for sure prepared and there will not be or minor fluctuation.

Evergrande, the Chinese real estate/car/etc corp … will make a dent but at institutional investors aka big banks … and still wondering if Chinese Goverment will jump in to save it or not …

Anyway, if you have money and more than a lil bit you can manipulate a lot and especially if your are grouped together … and we ain’t talking about people with millions or billions but corps/institutions/Angel investment corps/… that handle more than a few billions but a ton

Remember: A lot financial wise as regulated it looks it’s still far from truly regulated especially cryptocurrencies so it’s a big playground for them