New thesis: If even china tries to ban cryptos, only idiots would expect their government, not to try the same. Big crashes incoming.
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There are every year crashes some years bigger than others but well, you know this upfront
You really can anticipate on certain fluctations, ā¦hey look at the holidays , how much gets sold then to be able to buy presents ā¦ or China related that thing of red envelopesā¦ oh just follow trends and you will never be afraid of a crash, you will actually be prepaired to buy at the dip
The thing to watch is the T-Billsā¦That is your predictor of a tsunami coming or not. Very simple. A correction I 100% believe, but this govt has propped this up so much, it would never default on its debt. The ramifications would be so terrible it would be worse than the great depression exponentially. Lastly, if you read the fed minutes over the years, they fully believe the Yuan will be the second currency of choice. China has been hoarding gold for years now. Follow the currency markets and watch where the money is going. It is a frightening thought no doubt, I just pray that someone with a much smarter brain than I can get things settled down. We have the US govt about to go on pause again for the second time in three years. Iām so sick of both sides. They use the U.S. citizen as their whipping post. It is beyond sick and wrong. IMHO.
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Every stock market crash creates a generation of permabears who preach for the next decade that a major crash is just around the corner, and blame the Fed, buy gold (and now crypto) and build bunkers in the desert.
Then when a crash finally comes (and one always does) they say āI told you soā for a few weeks or months, except the crashes never quite live up to expectations, and markets recover while the permabears still wait for the next leg down. But next time will be different, that will be the big one!
Along the way, they lose a fortune shorting stocks or buying puts that expire worthless, and miss out on the bull market.
Iām a bearish personality myself, and prefer trading shorts over longs. And I have missed many great long setups when I let that emotion affect my trading. I have trading rules to prevent that and remain objective. (I am a market technician and trade charts only.)
But over the years Iāve also come to realize that the crashes rarely happen until most bears have thrown in the towel, and either given in to FOMO or at least become quiet. Thatās when itās time to sell/short, not while everybody is still saying itās gonna crash.
If you think about how institutions trade, youāll realize why: Their biggest challenge is NOT guessing the direction of markets, but rather filling all the orders needed to manage inventory, WITHOUT moving the market. Now, if thatās their biggest challenge, do you think they cannot move the market when they want to? And in that case, why would they sell while the world is still full of bears? Aha!
Despite knowing that, I am too bearish to buy the current stock market, and prefer looking for short swing setups when I trade options (I mostly trade futures though).
I do share many of the sentiments expressed here about the housing market, money supply - and of course the stock market. But trading on such sentiments is statistically a loser.
I do NOT share the notion that all the dumbest and most ignorant economists are the ones working at the Fedā¦
No, they are the smartest. They problem is that The Fed is privately owned and operated. The Fed only pretends to be a government agency. It is privately owned and the chief operator of a scam that has been going on for over 100 years.
The video I linked above is not conspiracy theory. It is a clear explanation of the scam and itsā creation.
I try not to push my views as that is usually the worst way to interest people. In spite of this I hope my link will spread some truth virus.
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I understand. I have not watched the video, but I did read books in the 1980s on that subject, and several friends of mine are deeply invested in it.
If indeed Fed and other central banks (not to forget the World Bank) are all part of a giant cabal, and Fed is only pretending to act under the Dual Mandate given to it by Congressā¦ isnāt that a conspiracy, by definition? Then such a theory would be a conspiracy theory, whether true or not. Again, by definition.
Anyways, no doubt that QE has benefited large banks and the super wealthy more than anybody else. But it DID also work to prop up the economy and the stock market, as was its official purpose. The 1929 crash and Great Depression took decades to recover due to too little stimulus, while the 2008 crash took just a few years (despite too little fiscal stimulus, but thanks to lavish monetary stimulus).
The real problem I see is the Fed running out of dry powder and decreasing bang for the buck in their interventions, so that they wonāt be able to act effectively when the next disaster hits. Which could be soon according to predictions in here.
I do want to stress that the purpose of my posts is NOT to make other posters here wrong, seeing as I DO share many of the sentiments and concerns expressed (even if not all of them). I merely want to point out the danger of letting those convictions drive or affect trading decisions, which should be objective and based on statistics and proven strategies. Thatās all.
No ones running out of money to borrow.
Didnāt you read / see info on the new monetary layer that was recently created by the IMF?
It was huge, and created as they only had 100 mill ( iirc ) left to loan out.
Running out of money was never an issue for any central bank. The problem is bang for the buck keeps decreasing; interventions become less and less effective.
Fiscal stimulus is far, far more effective, as it can be directed where it has the most effect, whereas monetary stimulus mostly enriches banks and bond traders, with a tiny percentage trickling down where it helps.
But fiscal stimulus requires politicians to act, who generally have little understanding of economics, and are only interested inā¦ well, politics.
Historical research and facts are branded as Conspiracy theory. The neat part of real long term conspiracies is that most of the members do not have to be part of the conspiracy or understand the goals. A well layed plan uses peopleās greed and mental laziness to get them to follow someone elseās agenda thinking that it is their own.
I see you have bought the stimulus smoke screen. Just to prove my point, I swear Iāll send you a $10 e-transfer if you watch the Federal Reserve video and do not agree that it significantly impacted your knowledge and view point. 
Understood. I bought nothing, just got tired of that crusade decades ago. Not going to re-engage in it. But thank you for the offer 
Unfortunately the end of that video missing.
The guy went on to say mass inflation will come due to it.
If heās right I doubt stocks and shares will collapse, banks own so many of them now they wonāt allow it IMO.
golden secret rule of the market - IF everybody expecting a crash - the crash will not comeā¦ 
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Exactly!
If I were a large market operator (and some of my clients are) why would I sell stocks in a world full of bears when I can sell puts to them and keep driving up my inventory for another few years? And of course sell calls to the dip-buyers all along.
I highly recommend studying the work of Richard Wyckoff 100 years ago. Much better for your financial health than getting riled up about Tyler Durdenās latest theories (although I admit the guy is smart). IMHO of course.
September aināt finished yet and there we go againā¦
Do we forget Christmas which is a very expensive time of year for many families.
Thereās a whole list of people to buy gifts for Christmas as well as extra nights out and events with friends and colleagues.
Present day and years afar this is a recurring event where people sell stocks, cryptocurrency, etc to be able to fund that expensive month.
A lot of people and this is a recurring event find money getting a little tight the closer the event comes.
And so same period every year there is a crash talk ā¦ yea not for the whales that will gladly buy all they can during or prior the festive period at the dip.
And this is just one example, you can easy time when people tend to sell every year and buy at the dip if you have funds for it.
Edit:
- The S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high every day for the last 7 days.
- The Nasdaq also sits at an all-time high as well.
Also:
If you donāt have a WSJ subscription an excerpt of the article
āSupermarkets are stocking up on everything from sugar to frozen meat before they, girding for what some executives anticipate will be some of the highest price increases in recent memory.
Some supermarkets said they are buying and storing supplies to keep their shelves full amid stronger demand. Grocery sales in the U.S. for the week ended June 19 rose about 15% from two years earlier and increased 0.5% from a year earlier, according to Jefferies and NielsenIQ data.
Stockpiling by food retailers is driving shortages of some staples, grocery industry executives said, and is challenging a U.S. food supply chain already squeezed by transportation costs, labor pressure and ingredient constraints.
The move is a reversal from last year when consumers hoarded groceries because of concerns about food availability, disrupting the food industry. Now, retailers themselves are stockpiling to keep costs down and protect margins.ā
So supermarkets are acting like hedge funds through their speculation on future food prices.
Secondary from the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/04/global-food-prices-covid/
Excerpt:
āThe U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said its food price index, which measures the global price of select foods, had in May hit highs not seen since 2011, up 40 percent year-on-year.
A variety of factors are to blame, including a surge in orders from China, fluctuating oil prices, a sliding U.S. dollar, and looming above all: the pandemic, and in some places, reopening.
But experts say that in the face of growing populations, globalization and climate change, higher prices may not be a blip.ā
Anyway this topic is the China Crackdown on Chia that evolved to more
Maybe I misunderstand you, but just to point out: Last ATH in US stock indices was Sep 6, weāve had some healthy breakdowns in price since then and lower highs. S&P500 is 4.3% below ATH, NAS100 is almost 6% below ATH. They could still go lower, and I hope they will.
And yes, increased stock volatility is common in Sep-Oct, mostly due to institutions positioning themselves for the last quarter. Most years end with a bang (X-mas rally) although not all: 2018 was the last healthy X-mas crash, triggered by an AMZN earnings disappointment.
I deliberately called those breakdowns healthy, in every meaning of the word. Markets that only move in one direction are not healthy.
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