Hi Guys,

so I am small farmer. started week ago. I have so far 100 plots and with current setup I will have 200 plots in next week. I have paid $1500 for HDDs. As network is growing fast is it showing me time to win 4 months (have 0.0002% of network, I am creating plots same speed network is growing so if I do new plots non stop I will still have 4 months to win). After one week I will have to buy new drives as 200 plots is max what I can store now. If I do not buy another drives time to win will be longer and longerâ€¦ I am not sure if I will farm even 1 chiaâ€¦ like if I stop creating plots time to win will be super longâ€¦but another 200 plots will cost me another $1000â€¦ not sure if it make sense to farmâ€¦ what do you think?

Depends on your expected level of return, but at current prices 1 win would give you full return on investment, plus future profit potential. if you expect to win sooner then increasing is the answer, if your happy to sit and maybe win every few months, from a cost to profit ratio it will work out. assuming XCH holds or exceeds current value.

I would be OK if I win every few months. I have no expectation I will become millionaire from Chia. But my concern is if I will even win every few months with 200 plots as network is growing super fast so i am afraid in few months I will have time to win in years and I will not win anythingâ€¦

Yeah I have those thoughts too. I think it will slow down, from bugs, hard drive, shortages, the big farms will hit a limit. I would fathom a majority of net space is current users expanding themselves. At a certain point it will taper.

A quick update to your math. A reward is 2 Chia, not just 1. So a win would current earn you $3k. So figure that into your equation.

Iâ€™m super confused

How exactly did you spend $1,500 USD on 20 TB??? That would mean you spent $750 on each 10TB drive. That math doesnâ€™t add up!

$1500 is my total investment - it include SSD drives too + PCIe SATA cards + boxes for HDD. (I have 6 desktops so did not need to buy PC at all - if I had to buy computers it will be much more). I am calculating another approx $900-$1000 to double my plots (just to buy HDDâ€™s)

pooling will be your answer. Once that comes smaller farms will get smaller regular payments. and hot even think about HPool, something like space pool.

I think to be called a small farmer you will need at least 1000 plots.

In the video chat the developers gave at transaction kickoff Brahm Cohen suggested that anyone with less than 1/10000 of the net space should consider pools (when they are available).

The growth has to slowdown eventually (supply chain etc) but when does this happen? If you chase it, does it slow down before or after youâ€™ve run out of room in your house (or more likely exceeded the cooling capacity of your AC)?

I have a weirdish question - if you have two keys farming two farmers, the probability per key is 1/2 of what you would eventually win? Or is it improved with more plots per key? Dedicate 100 tb to one key as opposed to 50tb each to both, are you somehow worse off in the second case?

Mathmatically, the odds are the same. You would still own the same percentage of the pool.

For reasons that arenâ€™t super simple to intuit, the only thing each plot is competing on is to have the best proof of space and thus the chances of getting a reward depend on total size of plots on the farm - even with the plot filter in place.

This is from github Chia Faqs, this implies a single key bound to more space will be awarded victory by comparison - or am I reading it wrong?

To me the reasons seem very simple to intuit - launch an arms race of HDDs and NVMs so that reserve Chia can leverage shortage in the HDD space and double in value (whatever a base value for any given crypto aught to be, I donâ€™t understand why more than a potted plant) - that is what I intuit!