You can’t compare other’s partial count to yours. Unless they exactly match your plot count size. Because difficulty is determined by the pool and they can use many factors to determine that difficulty number. Usually it is just the plot count (But I don’t know what SpacePool uses). But the higher your difficulty (the more plots you have) the frequency of partial submission changes. Just take a look at your points. Currently you have over 1200 and he has just over 700. Showing that you are earning what you should.
As for you not winning yet. With 67.8TiB of plots, your TTW is 4 months. Since the pools have only been out a couple months, you still have quite a bit of time before you are even remotely unlucky. If your logs look good, you are submitting the partials you are supposed to, there is not much else you can do. You could be waiting another 6 months with no wins and still be within reason.
Yeah … try to fugure what luck is in term of math THEN and THEN ONLY call your net blockchain. Period.
Otherwise if your are not professor with math degree please keep your idea of probability along with your illusions, or post a link to your scientific work.
Really guys i’m kinda tired of hearing about that fantasish “luck”.
Just because you are upset and getting tired of waiting doesn’t change the fact that what is happening to you is well within expectation. Like I mentioned before, I actually won twice on the same day early on with about 200 plots farming solo. I knew at that time that I was very very lucky and most likely would not win again for a long long time. So I joined Hpool right away.
You will feel much better when you actually win. But just keep your farm running well. It will happen.
It will show you all of the proofs found and the associated “submitting partial”. Each “Found # proofs” should have a “Submitting partial for” with it as seen below. If it looks like it is supposed to, then it may just be an issue with the SpacePool dashboard.
2021-08-18T14:26:28.072 harvester chia.harvester.harvester: INFO 7 plots were eligible for farming d335394a3d... Found 1 proofs. Time: 0.73969 s. Total 3294 plots
2021-08-18T14:26:28.087 farmer chia.farmer.farmer : INFO Submitting partial for c9d7bb27b3df5b7d2579f5c9cadab9942939a806c4cee4853a04f53d56699617 to https://pool.poolchia.com
2021-08-18T14:27:51.065 harvester chia.harvester.harvester: INFO 8 plots were eligible for farming d335394a3d... Found 1 proofs. Time: 1.25938 s. Total 3294 plots
2021-08-18T14:27:51.078 farmer chia.farmer.farmer : INFO Submitting partial for c9d7bb27b3df5b7d2579f5c9cadab9942939a806c4cee4853a04f53d56699617 to https://pool.poolchia.com
2021-08-18T14:37:42.639 harvester chia.harvester.harvester: INFO 7 plots were eligible for farming 677887916e... Found 1 proofs. Time: 2.10270 s. Total 3294 plots
2021-08-18T14:37:42.653 farmer chia.farmer.farmer : INFO Submitting partial for c9d7bb27b3df5b7d2579f5c9cadab9942939a806c4cee4853a04f53d56699617 to https://pool.poolchia.com
2021-08-18T14:42:19.514 harvester chia.harvester.harvester: INFO 8 plots were eligible for farming 677887916e... Found 1 proofs. Time: 0.93816 s. Total 3294 plots
2021-08-18T14:42:19.528 farmer chia.farmer.farmer : INFO Submitting partial for c9d7bb27b3df5b7d2579f5c9cadab9942939a806c4cee4853a04f53d56699617 to https://pool.poolchia.com
I’m not really adding anything that hasn’t been said. But it really is exactly like a lottery (where your ticket is put back into the bowl after a draw), plain simply that. Some lucky guy can have many wins in a day, while a poor bastard does not win in a year, given the same chance. As an experiment a while ago I did a script to simulate N (large, think millions) rollouts of “chia scenarios”, given my plots and the total netspace. At the time, it was most likely that I would win in ~2 months wait, but I could just as well have won the next minute. There was also a few unlucky cases that had to wait more than a year (unlikely, but a few actual people will end up there). All given the same circumstances.
It was pretty cool to do a histogram over “days to win” and see the actual distribution of scenarios.
Fortunately, not yet. You are just a normal person with average luck. You are well within what is expected. You haven’t won, so you are not overly lucky. But you have a long way to go to become the unlucky poor bastard.
If your node is connected, and your response times are not over 5 seconds, then you will win when your “lottery number” gets drawn.
Here is a guy who won the lottery twice in 11 days:
Imagine how pissed off his hypothetical neighbour must be who played that lottery every week for 50 years and won nothing but occasional small prizes.
Its just probability. Partials and the number returned in pools are not comparable as your difficulty is set based on your number of plots and responses, in order to return enough partials to the pool for the pool to be able to verify that you are connected, have the number of plots you say you have and that they are valid. The pool operator can change your individual difficulty level to ensure that they get enough responses to be fairly sure of the information above, but not so many that their servers would be overwhelmed. It seems around 250 is a ballpark figure they use.
