I was looking at a graph of netspace over time, and noticed that over the past two years – mid 2024 to mid 2026 – the slope of the graph is surprisingly linear. Momentary spikes notwithstanding – larger farms or pools cutting in and out – one can fit a nearly straight line to the graph. With ruler in hand, it looks as if the graph of netspace will cross the X-axis sometime in mid to late 2027. Zero netspace!
While CNI is doing great work on the legal front, with Permuto gaining SEC acceptance, and attracting customers with “green” initiatives and other projects, there is little of any interest, that is visible to me, in maintaining the viability of the farming community. At least, as a rather small farmer myself, I see nothing in the near future aimed at rewarding me for continuing to farm.
There are plenty of posts on this forum and others that naïvely equate the costs of farming to nothing beyond the costs of electricity for running the disk drive arrays. If we replace disk drives at the 10 year mark, instead of the 3 to 5 year period that would be customary in any professional data center, then the electricity cost alone would be about $82 (at $0.15/kwh), plus the pre-AI cost of the drive itself, for a total of roughly $400 every ten years. It would earn about 66 XCH at current netespace.. To break even, each XCH earned would need to reimburse the farmer a bit more than $6. Today, we’re less than half of that, and falling. And that is not taking into account the recurring cost of the servers and network gear, nor the ongoing costs of physical housing and network connectivity and the salary of those who maintain it all.
Five years now past the 2021 start, serious data-center maintainers will be noting that the 5 year warranty period on their enterprise farming drives are now up. And they’ll be asking the question, “do I replace, or sunset?”
Goodness of one’s heart notwithstanding, where is the incentive for farmers, moving forwards? Is there anything specific that CNI should do with respect to the farmers who maintain the blockchain to ensure that the blockchain remains an ongoing concern?