You seem to have missed my point entirely.
Chia’s decentralization is quickly becoming a joke, with the advent of pools that don’t rely on the official pooling protocol (that this forum is used to promote despite my many warnings and CNI doing nothing about it). The time component is what makes PoST possible, but requires asic timelords which are costly to develop and not incentivized by the protocol itself. It’s easy to see how an attack on the blockchain would take place, especially if CNI is financially weak, which it recently admitted. That’s the predictable part. For the unpredictable you have to look into the social science aspect of technology, where Chia faces most of the same problems as BTC in interfacing with pre-existing institutions, albeit at a faster pace given their focus on financial services.