XCH Price forecast 2022 - 2034

General Chia Discussion
1

hello every one, I always wonder what will be the future XCH price and didn’t manage to get fact based price predictions and so here is my best guess:

1st Assumption: the chia net space will increase along with the HDD and SDD price drops.

This means that, taking this HDD and SSD price forecast article into account (Figure 4), the Chia net space will increase as follows:

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I took an approximate CAGR rate of 6 % until 2027 for HDDs. Since the SSDs will be apparently cheaper from 2027, I considered SSD price from this date at a CAGR rate of 26 % until 2030 (Table 2 of the same article) and much less until 2034.

2nd assumption: the XCH price increases at the same rate of the net space and the block reward difficulty.

The block difficulty halves every three years:

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By combining the net space increase with the block difficulty we get the XCH price forecast:

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Apart from this, I think the current XCH price is way under valued:

  • The block reward will halve “soon”. So, at current pay back period (approximately 3 years if we manage to have be below 15 UDS/TiB) it will take longer to get our money back than the next block reward drop at this time .
  • It means that it is a very good time to buy.
  • Farmers (even the small fish like me) are being penalized for this.
  • Adjusting the current price to what I believe would be a fair one, XCH should be at around 100 USD.

One thing is certain: if farmers hold on to their XCH instead of selling them, the XCH price will rise :slight_smile:
Of course if you’re reimbursing your investment this does not sound like a good idea…

So, to conclude, looking at the graphs above we can expect 2’000 USD/XCH by 2033 but, taking into account the current undervaluation of XCH, and adjusting to 100 USD, here is a more optimistic forecast:

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All this may sound simplistic or even stupid but it’s just my best guess…
I wonder what do you guys think about it?

PS I did not take into account other factors like Chia going public and other price fluctuations.

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No one knows. I hope higher rather than lower

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3

That puts their premine at $105 Billion in 2034-ish - we’ve got some work to do to be a top 10 coin. But I agree on the numbers and trajectory - the potential is there.

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Didnt factor in btc halvings, id expect that to play its part as well.

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It wouldn’t surprise me to see the slide continue to $20 over the next year, along with a corresponding reduction in netspace to 18EiB.

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Yes, this the trend and there is no reason yet for it to change

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I believe that BTC is on its way out as the dominant coin. Unfortunately, in the mean time, it will take a huge hit and since the rest of crypto world is basically tied to it, we will all suffer until a set of breakout coins prove themselves. I’m sure the reason we are all here is that we believe Chia to be one of the future breakout coins. Once that happens, I don’t think there is any historical data to help anyone predict what will come. Because the road Chia has taken is new and the results will be unlike anything previously. A public crypto company with solid real-world use cases that is also heavily regulated to meet all compliance requirements (which is what Chia is aiming for) will be ground-breaking. The potential is huge. I don’t think any predictions can be made because it is unprecedented. I’m not looking forward to the pain that is to come, but I have expected it. I will be here when the joy comes down the road.

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thank you for your comment :slight_smile:

I agree, BTC is taking a big hit, but it also came a long way here.

I see three main reasons for the current crypto “crash”: covid inflation, war in Ukraine and climate change. They soon (hopefully) be part of the past. The only one that can persist is climate change. But chia is a good workaround to minimize the impact.

Even BTC can be a green crypto currency if renewables become abundant in the future. In any case, a huge amount of value (BTC) has already been created (mined). I see BTC in the future as gold is nowadays.

And yes, compliance will definitely be a major advantage of chia.

I just think that somehow, the chia price will be always linked to a payback of an investment and this is mostly affect by the cost of farming and the the XCH price.

In any case, I believe in the Chia project and I trust the people behind it. That’s why I’m holding as much XCH as I can and continue my farming adventure (just passed the 400 TiB!). Even if I have to wait 20 years to profit form that :slight_smile:

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9

Could be correct , but i seriously doubt it, chia and btc will have different customer bases , use cases dependant on peoples needs / wants.

Already happening, many states in the US require already or are transitioning to it being illegal if the mines are not green powered.

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10

I personally asked Gene Hoffmann, and he said he doesn’t see any reason why Chia won’t reach 3000

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11

How about this one? https://motivationgrid.com/chia-price-prediction-forecast/
I didnt really read it, cuz I think price-prediction on cryptos is stupid.

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12

Thank you for your feedback. I read that article before. The reason I posted mine is because there are no facts on that article.
And yes, it is kind of stupid to do these price forecast since there are so many unknown factors to take into account.

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13

hello

this is a very interesting attempt to estimate the future price, thank you for the beautiful work.

i would add my very trivial approach to it.
under the condition that crypto is not banned and chia does not fail as a project.

ok the approach is very simple chia is successful and will be a top10 crypto currency in the next 5-10 years. at the moment the top 10 cryptos are only around 10-20 billion market cap because of the “crypto winter”. in better times probably around 30-60 billion. then we add a little inflation and general adoption of crypto for the next few years and we might be around 50-100 billion.
in 5-10 years we will have farmed around 20 million chia and since we are pessimistic we add the 20 million prefarm to that. no matter what is currently said about that, the chia team will not throw it away.
so we end up with a very simple calculation (50 to 100 billion market capitalization ) / 40 million chia in circulation = a chia price of 1250$ to 2500$
of course this can be easily modified if we assume that chia will only be a top 50 crypto and we simply calculate with a lower market capitalization, which would be about 10 billion and would result in a price of about 250$.

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Ill take $250… Hopefully I have some left over from paying my Electricity bill.

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My forecast is $20000. I mean just because of inflation!!!

But seriously, everyone who ever heard about growth modeling or econometrics is just laughing. If you take that “forecast model” seriously yourself, take the maximum loan from a bank you can get and buy XCH. According to your forecast it is a fast track to become a billionaire, isn’t it?

People who take bullshit like your forecast seriously, might screw their finances because of you. So please do not post such forecasts if you have no clue about statistical modeling!

PS: If you use CAGR you do not need to write CAGR rate because the R in CAGR stands for rate!
It is Compound Annual Growth Rate

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Sure, I understand. I just happen to live in a free speech country, apparently the same as yours, and I’m just expressing myself. I believe I have the right to do so.

I’m investing in chia and I’m showing my personal opinion about chia price, based on future developments of HDD and SSD prices together with some other assumptions, like block reward/difficulty, etc. I’m not providing any financial advice.

I invested in crypto in the past and I’ve seen a very similar pattern.

And thank you for the CAGR correction, I’m sure it is much clear for everyone…

PS: $20’000 puts yearly inflation at 75%, so you may want to review your numbers; and to become a billionaire, even with my most optimistic forecast, I would have to invest close to $8M in chia which I don’t have…

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Personal opinion, I hate it when people do a video that is just a recording with a picture. That is not a video.

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