hello every one, I always wonder what will be the future XCH price and didn’t manage to get fact based price predictions and so here is my best guess:
1st Assumption: the chia net space will increase along with the HDD and SDD price drops.
This means that, taking this HDD and SSD price forecast article into account (Figure 4), the Chia net space will increase as follows:
I took an approximate CAGR rate of 6 % until 2027 for HDDs. Since the SSDs will be apparently cheaper from 2027, I considered SSD price from this date at a CAGR rate of 26 % until 2030 (Table 2 of the same article) and much less until 2034.
2nd assumption: the XCH price increases at the same rate of the net space and the block reward difficulty.
The block difficulty halves every three years:
By combining the net space increase with the block difficulty we get the XCH price forecast:
Apart from this, I think the current XCH price is way under valued:
- The block reward will halve “soon”. So, at current pay back period (approximately 3 years if we manage to have be below 15 UDS/TiB) it will take longer to get our money back than the next block reward drop at this time .
- It means that it is a very good time to buy.
- Farmers (even the small fish like me) are being penalized for this.
- Adjusting the current price to what I believe would be a fair one, XCH should be at around 100 USD.
One thing is certain: if farmers hold on to their XCH instead of selling them, the XCH price will rise
Of course if you’re reimbursing your investment this does not sound like a good idea…
So, to conclude, looking at the graphs above we can expect 2’000 USD/XCH by 2033 but, taking into account the current undervaluation of XCH, and adjusting to 100 USD, here is a more optimistic forecast:
All this may sound simplistic or even stupid but it’s just my best guess…
I wonder what do you guys think about it?
PS I did not take into account other factors like Chia going public and other price fluctuations.