I think this is why I’m overperforming the estimated time to win. I wonder what percentage of the netspace is poorly configured / not actually participating.
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elmans1961 I get that you are unhappy with your lack of success. Most of us were hoping for much better numbers than we are seeing.
Fortunately, for me, I have found some joy in building my plotting rig, tuning the plotting process, and watching my plots grow.
I once dreamed of zillions of TB and a stack of money to match. Now Chia is a hobby. I’ll fill what storage I have bought and farm away. If my farm makes some coin, I might buy some more storage or just HODL. Maybe I will pool when it is official.
If I am lucky I may see my hobby become profitable some day. If not, I’ll find a new hobby.
I try not to let life and reality get me down. Chia farming may not have been my best choice but I’ll get the most out of it that I can even if I never earn a coin.
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Well put. I couldn’t think of the better way to explain what I am feeling.
As I have stated before. To everyone thinking of quitting and selling… If you can afford to keep at it, keep plotting away till you fill up your storage and reevaluate if you should sell the plotting stuff or not at that time. If storage is already full, just keep farming and evaluate if it makes financial sense to sell your plotting stuff. Either way, keep farming once storage is full for you may get lucky one day.
I did not buy dedicated hardware, so I am never planning on selling any of mine. For me, I will likely just let my remaining storage fill and then just keep farming and check on Chia once a week or so.
If I see a really good deal on a Dell Rx20 series server and some SAS/SATA drives and some caddies, I may treat myself but I doubt I would do that any time soon.
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Am in the relatively fortunate position of having won 2XCH last week at around 1000 plots, this is a bit earlier than I expected - my plan has always been to stay in no matter what for about 12 months, if I don’t win again will stop at around 500TB, if I win again will go up to 1PB max. Am unofficially pooling with a friend (he supplies disks and puts in towards infrastructure, I run everything) and we have agreed a reasonable split of winnings.
Our goal is to stay at around 30-days to win, unless disk prices become insane, and then sell everything - that one win means we can’t really lose out even if we sell everything for less than we paid for it, and we’ve been buying second hand stuff almost exclusively so saving a lot v.s anyone who ran out and bought a tonne of new 16TB disks.
I agree with @Aspy68 though, even if I make a slight loss on this, it’s been fun, is all money I can afford to lose even if I lost 100% of the investment (and that’s no longer possible with one win). I have made use of some things I had sitting around, and has prompted me to snap up some great bargains on things I kind of wanted and can re-purpose eventually. Have learnt a fair bit about topics I never would otherwise have needed to know anything about.
I never really wanted 1PB of disks, but I haven’t overpaid on any of them, and even if I have to shift them at a slight loss eventually *shrug*.
People who expected quick wins and overspent either in the cloud or for on-prem are likely to be disappointed right now - personally I’m not - it’s been just over a month of a 12-month plan and even if I still had 0XCH would be within the realms of my expectations.
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other “diversification” strategies could be to look for parallel / re-use of the capabilities already paid for and operating
plotter = fast compute → CPU mining - mine Verus Coin - https://verus.io/
harvester = large storage → use partial / staggered increased amount of storage for hosting on SIA/Skynet or Storj (or if you are in the PB category - FileCoin)
some thoughts
-
check out burst coin - Burst may be to Chia what is XLM to XRP -
(corporate vs community governed network) - ironically Chia also seems to primarily aiming to build a payments network targeting corporate entities, just like XRP. -
check out SIA/Skynet - https://sia.tech/ - SiaStats.info - Index
it may be the only decentralized storage network with a reasonably developed product 2014-todate; while others like Filecoin are still working on building a production-ready stack, AND/OR maintain central points of failure (corporately controlled validators or permissioned gateways)
all the while keep on trucking on Chia, until the storage is better utilized elsewhere (or incrementally moved over)
or plan B - sell at cost (should be easy at least for 8+ TB hdds) and right away buy crypto at the current dip.
These are times of great opportunity all around.
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Dream!Dreams come true …sometimes…
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1.Total XCH including the prefarm
21 806 836 XCH ($12.42b)
2.Number of Chia coins that have been farmed
806 836 ($459.4m)
Nothing like a hasty cut and paste job to make your position … your info is so sloppy that you have the same total number of coins and coins farmed.
Where does your data come from and what relevance do you place on this “data”?
Doesn’t matter, the net space metric is derived from the number of proofs completed. Too many block in a day = raise the difficulty, and the next space must be X.
Wallet/Farm “*Want to explore Chia’s blocks further? Check out Chia Explorer built by an open source developer.”
My position is facts and your position is sloppeness 
Sure, Chia could be a lottery but unlike the lottery you have more known variables.
- You know the size of the network
- You know the size of your farm
- You know the frequency of a new block - 18.75s
- You know how long you can farm each plot.
Let’s do some math… Poisson distribution (Poisson distribution - Wikipedia)
Let’s say you have 500 plots and the network is 20 EiB.
First we will convert everything to TiB because it’s easier…
500 plots = 49.51 TiB
20 EiB = 20,480 PiB = 20,971,520 TiB
Now lets look at farming time, we’ll convert everything to seconds since we know that there is a new block every (roughly) 18.75 seconds.
One 24 hour period = 86,400 seconds
Now the fun part. The odds of winning a block is calculated
(farm space / network size) * (time farming / block time) = lambda
farm space divided by network size = probability per block
lambda is basically the number of events divided by the known size… it’s the mean
so from here we get
(49.51 / 20,971,520) * (86,400 / 18.75) = lambda
0.00000241748 * 4608 = lambda
0.01113974784 = lambda
Now that we have a value for lambda we can apply it to the Poisson distribution calculation and find out our odds of winning a block.
p(wins; lambda) = (events^−lambda)(lambda^wins) / wins! (it’s crude, I know but I don’t know how to format the equation on here. I’m also going to round here because it’s simpler)
so…
The chances of winning a block in a 24 hour period with 500 plots and a 20 EiB network is
0 Blocks, 99%
1 Block, 1%
2 Blocks, 0%
Over 30 days - recalculate lambda using 2,592,000 seconds to represent 30 days
0 Blocks, 72%
1 Block, 24%
2 Blocks, 4%
3 Blocks, 0%
Over 60 days - recalculate again, 5,184,000 seconds…
0 Blocks, 51%
1 Block, 34%
2 Blocks, 11%
3 Blocks, 3%
4 Blocks, 0%
Over 365 days - provided the network doesn’t grow since we’re still assuming 20 EiB 
0 Blocks, 2%
1 Block, 7%
2 Blocks, 14%
3 Blocks, 19% - You’ll most likely be here or
4 Blocks, 20% - here unless you have a network problem
5 Blocks, 16% - or are just really lucky/unlucky
6 Block, 11%
7 Blocks, 6%
8 Blocks, 3%
9 Blocks, 1%
10 Blocks, 1%
11 Blocks, 0%
You can create a simple excel sheet to plug in your values and use the =POISSON.DIST(win,lambda,FALSE) to see the overall odds of winning.
Yay Statistics!
Sorry for the long post and I know it’s painful to read but remember;
Men lie, women lie, but the math… the math never lies.
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“Say you have” “Say the size of network” …all is relative like in lottery.Say I buy 10 000 tickets, say I choose 20 figures of 40…The only difference in chia you do not have to buy (a) new plot(s) so as to replace old one(s).You never know the increase of the network because many think that they are lucky and will involve into it.
XIII39,your post with the math is the BEST one!
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That argument will cost you $20, lolz! 
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LOL. Chia confirmed this as lottery?
Therefore, pooling is kind of like lottery insurance: all of the members participate in the Chia “lottery”, and whenever one member wins, the pool gets the reward and distributes it to all of the members, minus a small fee.
Yes its a lottery … take a look 
… this would really p me off…