Another very important point most people seem to forget here:
If Chia surges further, net space will resume its exponential growth, moving the ROI further back. So no you probably won’t get 2.3 XCH. Add the halving to that, and it doesn’t currently make any sense to farm. You also have to take into account the devaluation of the HDDs over time. And as you mentioned, farming is considered income tax and not capital gain tax by most countries. So awful tax wise if you are an employee.
The only reason I’d see for farming now would be a total gamble. Buy the hardware to satisfy your inner geek and play with some fancy CPUs etc while waiting for the surge. Then sell the HDDs at a much higher price since they will be rare again.
Yes I agree with you. I gave up on complete ROI for the time being. But the farming itself is generating more value in USD than it is consuming electricity. And selling my HDDs now would be a bad move since prices tanked so much and already bottomed. So if I sell my hardware now or in a year, I’d get a price almost guaranteed to not be lower than now.
While if I wait for the next bull run (if it would ever happen for XCH), I’d be sitting on a lot of expensive XCH and HDDs I can resell for 25 USD/Tb.
I love the crystal ball reliance that says how many XCH you can yield with the prices the way they are right now. Correct me if I’m wrong. We are farming XCH not $$$. If the yield now is better than ever, wouldn’t it make sense to go hard into farming while prices are low and yield is high? Either you believe in Chia or you don’t. You can yield a S load more XCH now than 1 year ago. Maybe it was “more” stupid to be expanding and buying hard drives last year than it is now. Buy stock when they are low = increase yield when net space is at its lowest level. It makes more sense to me to be farming Chia today than it was a year ago when I look at the charts and history. I would argue you spent a lot more time wasting time trying to yield XCH last year than you would have today. Yet people say oh no, don’t expand now when drives are cheap and yield is high. Kind of makes me laugh.
It’s not just about the yield really. It’s about the price to buy XCH vs the price to buy hardware and what yield that hardware will have over time.
If the XCH price is $150 one 18TB hdd ($300) worth will only buy you 2 XCH.
If the XCH price is $30 one 18TB hdd ($300) worth will buy you 10 XCH.
True, hardware was more expensive at peak hype but the difference is not that big.
Netspace was then also higher, so lower yield but still.
If you bought a 18TB hdd back in May fo 500$ you could also have opted to use that money to buy 1XCH
By now that hdd has made you about 1.5-2 XCH and it is still running, so it was still the better option even with high netspace and high hardware cost.
I noticed this today as well. Crashing crypto market with an exception. Chia. So based on this happening before, it is unnatural. Chia has been slowly dropping since the spike. Now it goes up when other started sinking today. Natural or not, whatever. It’s not natural ebb and flow and says someone is have a bit of fun with this. I need to see an increase based on something new from Chia that gets the market excited. Right now it’s when others fall, Chia goes up. I’m no longer excited to see this.
