I have given very specific predictions here in the past, in other threads. And they’ve mostly nailed it. Check my post from yesterday.
Unfortunately I can not predict specific floor levels right now, the way I could in those earlier predictions. There are tools we can use, but not high probability ones. Ceilings are a lot easier, but I doubt many are interested in those.
What I CAN say is that there are strong indications that institutional actors are accumulating XCH, and have been suppressing its price to facilitate that. Institutions only do that when they are confident they can move price higher once they have filled their inventory.
I’m very humble when it comes to markets, and far from always right. Nobody is.
All I am saying is that your contention that tape reading is merely opinion was misplaced and reflected your own reality on this subject.
It’s not coincidence or luck when a mechanic fixes my car, even though I wouldn’t know how to do it myself. He knows engines at a deep level, where I only know them superficially. I respect that, as well as any other skill or craft.
What Robbie posted was based on certain observable facts. I recognized that because I know this subject. You didn’t, so you said it was just his opinion. But it wasn’t just opinion, there were objective facts behind it.
That doesn’t mean it’s 100%. Nothing is 100%.
And now you’re saying “see, if it isn’t 100%, I was right, it’s just opinion”.
I’ve seen you make sensible posts around here. You know better. If others gave you that black & white logic, you would know it was a trap.
In the months before this thread exploded I noticed two things.
One was the plateauing and now slight downward trend of netspace. You can now use the log view for comparison, but the line drawn through the chart here last night is accurate. Netspace has plateaued and is now dropping slowly.
The other was that EVERY significant drop was in lock step with relatively giant sales that were coordinated and timed with big chunks being sold at 02:25 and 02:35 exactly and other similar timings. Some recovery occurs in the hours following every time as the organized sales pressure disappears.
I have blamed these coordinated sales on pool owners and large corporate farms that have to turn a profit and pay staff and overhead but even this explanation does not quite cover the magnitude of many of these sales.
My evidence is observed empirical but it seems to indicate that commercial Chia farming ventures are under constant sales pressure AND ALSO seems to indicate, that in addition, at least one large bad actor is playing games with XCH price.
Now that we are hovering at $100, I’m asking myself if $50 is plausible. I remember how I felt at $150. Figured $100 was a long shot but here we are. So I really do wonder if after the next big crypto shake up, will XCH be seeing a new plateau of $50. I’m a bit startled at $100 being the norm so I’m mentally preparing myself for $50. It seems the news and developments recently didn’t bolster Chia. That is a bit surprising. I hate to be a downer but mentally this is what I’m preparing for.
I sometimes think of the saying “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink”. You can create something that might be great but it doesn’t mean that people will embrace it with the same enthusiasm. People are suggesting the price trajectory is par for the course. I say bah to that. I mention once to Bram that Chia was a low value coin to which he balked. He was within his right to say that at the time because Chia was $200+. Many could also claim that every coin goes through this and that it’s normal. You can also say as Bram says that watching the value of a coin rise and fall is a waste of time because all crypto is volatile. The issue become when some of the announcements depend on some type of useful return (rewards). The idea of changing how hard drives are made or creating Chia specific hardware just doesn’t have the same pizazz when the value is at $100 or below $200 for that matter. As time passes and the promises continue to be promises, I’m sorry but we may look at a situation where somebody else takes this idea/technology to a new project and it becomes something greater. I think we should all circle back to the idea that you can lead a horse to water but maybe the horse simply doesn’t want to drink it. If people think months and months of this won’t matter, you are not being realistic. I want to be in on Chia rewards so I’m the last person who wants anything bad to happen on this. Nobody would be happier to see progress and announcements resulting in increased value. The point of releasing news is to bolster coin value. When you flat line? Even the most optimistic person should start to have doubts.
I farm Chia, I want a lambo as much as the next guy. But can we please stop prettending like the whole purpose of Chia is to moon the coin? It was never about that, XCH is a bet on the future success of the Chia project, not a get rich quick scheme.
I’m sorry if calculators brought you here. Maybe it’s time to look elsewhere for the moon rocket. The fact that it doesn’t currently make sense to buy hardware just to farm Chia is a good thing. Consider yourself lucky if you were in early, and reconsider your options if you’re just getting started.
Ironically, the current price of XCH has made it so that it only makes sense to farm existing capacity, whatever that might be. One could almost call this a success - after all, is this not how it was envisioned to work?
Food for thought: a 1PB farm and a 1TB farm are equally valuable to the Chia blockchain.
Moon the coin? I think it’s ridiculous to think that the current price of XCH was part of the Chia plan and they knew it would go this way from the start. To suggest everyone should have been smarter and assumed Chia would be a $50 for years or a $100 for years? Give me a break. The Chia team already boasted about SSDs branded to be for Chia. These types of hardware releases are NOT based on a value of coin where you would take years to pay of that particular piece of equipment. People who come here and say you should have know it would be like this or that this was always how it was supposed to go down? Give me a break. Utter BS in my mind. If you want interest from the people who are going to deploy the equipment to provide the security for your blockchain would not sign up for a 3-5 year pay off. If you could sell equipment in 7 days and make more money than you could farming XCH for 2 years? Sure some might think that’s a great idea but please do show all the new hard drive sales and new entrants into the Chia farming space. You want to know who is right or wrong? Look at netspace. People are not getting into farming Chia. Geez, I wonder why. THIS LOW VALUE IS NOT PART OF ANYONE’S PLAN UNLESS THEY ARE ON GLUE.
*I will add this. To the people who say oh you should have never expected this to be a get rich quick scheme. Tell me. If Chia opened with its current value, sub $200, where is netspace at today? Go ahead. Tell me. You might be one fool willing to buy and deploy enough equipment for the Chia blockchain to be secure but I can almost guarantee you that the netspace would be as thin as a wet paper bag. So who is right and who is wrong? Chia is lucky with what happened. It’s arrogant to use netspace today as proof people still believe in the project. 99% of people would have said GTFO if you’re going to pay me rewards at a $50 or $100 evaluation. Nobody would care about this project. In the same sense, I will say nobody cares because you could count on one hand the number of new people with Chia at around $100 who started up farming. You can’t secure a blockchain with 100 people who a believers that some day, in the distant future, this might really turn into something.
**I will also add that people who started with Chia will have ZERO hesitation on moving to a different project using hard drives to secure a blockchain. I would rather be part of something this is headed up, not down. All Chia has done is go down. And people here are suggesting that was always part of the plan? That is hilarious.
What I’m saying is curb your expectations. Netspace doesn’t matter as much as you think to Chia, what matters is the number of nodes. Netspace was ~20PB during testnet and that was working just fine.
Your decision to invest $$$$ into buying a bunch of hard drives is based on your desire to make more $$$$ back in rewards, it has nothing to do with ‘helping the network’. The blockchain doesn’t care if your farm is 1EiB or 1TB, a node is a node.
The more ‘investor farmers’ move on, the more worthwhile it is for the average Joe with a spare 10TB to farm Chia for a couple extra bucks a month. I know this sucks for you because you wouldn’t have made the decision to invest had you known that coin price would crash. But the Chia network does not owe you anything, it never promised you anything, this was always your own speculative decision.
I’m not saying ‘you should have known this would happen’, what I’m saying is the only person responsible for this decision is you. The Chia project didn’t fail anything by not creating another tulip coin.
I do love the crypto ride regardless of the ups and downs. As for no bottom? There is no reason for me to doubt anything in that regard. A huge upward trend is about the last thing I’m expecting unfortunately. To simplify things, I look at current netspace as the “hangers-on” and the netspace trend (decline) is the true litmus test. New entrants into Chia farming will bolster my confidence. How many new members on the forum? That is another indicator. The Chia executives can use the netspace to suggest they have many nodes and have an incredible decentralized blockchain and thus, this is proof positive that there is vast support and belief in the project. In my opinion nothing could be further from the truth. If they can’t bring up the XCH value to a point where netspace rises and interest in Chia grows? I see it like this. If I created a product and sold millions of said product that filled my pockets with a billion dollars, that is a great accomplishment. But if I then start losing money and everything I gained at the start is gone? I could always keep telling people that I made a billion dollars back in the first year of business. I could ignore that ever since that time, I lost money hand over fist. The question is. What am I? Am I that person who made the billion dollars or am I that person who has lost most of what I gained because of failed products or decisions? Bram seems to be the person who wants to rest on the laurels of having massive netspace that was gained when the value was astronomical. Now that the value has dropped and was at a more normal level, netspace (success) has fallen off. No new entrants into the farming community to secure the blockchain. Sure you started with a bang, but is that indicative of the project? Or like in my example, is the truth where we are now and the immense netspace is simply a red herring. To me, netspace means S when it comes to Chia. It doesn’t mean anything in terms of who out there are believers in Chia. In a sense, nobody is buying the product that made you a billion dollars in the beginning. Nothing that you’ve done since has had any positive affect on sales (value). Anyone suggesting everything is fine, normal and this was how it was going to be? That elitist attitude is for the birds. What have you done for me lately? That’s what matters here. If there was great promise then many more farmers would be signing up. Chia would be covered more widely and the news releases recently would have a tangible effect on XCH value. Resting on your laurels. That’s what I see from Chia right now. Great grandiose plans. Lovely. On paper. I still say if somebody else takes what Chia does and can provide a better reward, that “netspace” fallacy will prove itself to be just that. Like mining, miners will go where the revenue is greatest. It’s not about “5 years from now it will be amazing”. If that’s the case then the Chia executives can buy all the hardware and create and farm all the nodes rather than us.
*The idea that people leaving farming and reducing netspace as a good thing? Sorry to say, but people leaving means that belief is dwindling. You can have more of something that has zero value. Is that a great thing? You might be able to get more XCH as netspace drops, but at the same time, the future becomes more cloudy. Are you farming something that is actually going to take off? Or, as I’ve suggested, could it be pretty easy for somebody else to branch off and create a version of this blockchain that will use our resources and offering something more rewarding? I would rather start small, get big than be big and get small. You figure out which one is an optimistic scenario vs. a pessimistic scenario. If Chia netspace starts to really drop off, it’s because somebody else is offering something with more promise. As some have already done here. It doesn’t take much. Farmer loyalty? Nope. Like miners, we do this for the rewards. You can build something off our backs, but we actually have no loyalty to each other. As far as I see it, Chia is lucky to be able to have us securing their blockchain. It’s about their only selling point. Chia executive always had this idea that data centers would farm Chia, but again, ask yourself this. What data center is going to farm Chia with this type of return? That is to say, nobody should be claiming this is where Chia was meant to be. If it can’t sustain around $200 then a lot of what they said or claimed or relied on makes no sense. There isn’t a business plan that would make sense with a $100 XCH value. Go under $100? An even tougher sell to those data centers.
**I also realize that we don’t know what people’s involvement is in Chia. Apologists exist. Those with vested interest exist. They can have accounts and they can spew their apologist messages. To suggest that this is where Chia should be at or was reasonable to expect? Again, to repeat, that is a BS take on this. Why would anyone be upset at spending money on hardware. It’s all sellable on the used market. There is little to no risk at all. You want to suggest people are saying things because they bought hardware? Who cares? It’s easy to liquidate this hardware. A small loss for some. A bit of effort. Maybe profit on the hardware for some. Enough with the “Chia doesn’t owe you anything” HS. HS = horse something. Chia executives use their node count as a selling point. Who provides the nodes? We do. But they don’t owe us anything? WE ARE ABOUT THE ONLY SELLING POINT THEY HAVE AT THIS POINT.
It’s funny that you’re implying I’m somehow involved in Chia or an ‘apologist’ because I’m not agreeing with you.
If it’s easy to liquidate hardware and it’s not a big deal, then why are we lamenting the coin price drop so much?
100,000 nodes with 1TB of space each = 100PB of netspace. There are ~9216 coins minted per day, 276480 during a 30 day period. At $20/coin, these would be worth $5,529,600, the equivalent of ~$55 per farmer, per month.
Of course, people will pull out a napkin and work out that they could make a whole lot more if they had 100TB of space, perhaps even justifying the price of new hardware. Netspace balloons, earnings get diluted for everyone, and now the same people are crying that they can no longer cover the cost of their hardware as fast as they thought they could.
And I’m supposed to feel sorry for these people? (myself included)
I wasn’t pointing directly at you regarding involvement with Chia. However anyone can make an account and pretend to be anyone.
How can any farmer of Chia be good with the current price of XCH? How can any farmer suggest that this is what they were expecting when it’s pretty clear that the Chia executives weren’t planning on a $100 coin? Yes tomorrow or the next day it could change. Great. Hope it happens.
Lamenting a DS value? That would be a normal reaction. Hence the opening paragraph of this post. I don’t call this a matter of difference of opinion. You say this low is expected? Planned for? Worthwhile? You are on an island by yourself then.
The moment there appears to be a more worthwhile coin to farm I will gladly move to that. You can go ahead and farm for pennies in the hopes that a negative trend turns back up from its glory days.
