UPDATE 2023-05-19 profit ratio XCH/kWh/TiB; HDD ROI comparison
UPDATE 2023-05-18 FlexFarmer v2.4.1 reduced intervals between disk access burst; no change in profitability; added per TiB comparison
UPDATE 2023-05-15 error in official chia farm wattage; profitability update; simplifying results; Double-tripe vision at the end
UPDATE 2023-05-14 energy confusion explained, added dev fees.
!!! WARNING this study may cause severe head aches, mental diarrhoea, and broken dreams !!! We deal with facts, use it or leave it if you have no idea.
YOU CAN BE RIGHT OR DO IT RIGHT…THIS IS THE WAY
We all heard the miracles of compressed plots, claiming up to 47.2% boost in income. One wonders how the author of the post came up with this number in the first place - 68.9GiB mmx C9 / 101.3GiB official = ~ 32% less space than official.
I prefer to do math, numbers never lie. As Albert used to say, “What works in theory, doesn’t work in reality. And vice versa.”
official plots, 7454 plots, 737.77TiB, plot costs 0.05CHF/plot, pool. space
mmx-v2.4 C8 plots, 4355 plots, space=333.35TB/303.18TiB space-effective=474.25TB/431.33TiB, plot costs <0.01CHF/plot, nVidia Quadro M4400 (120W TDP, wattage 40-90W during farming), FlexFarmer v2.4.1, pool difficulty 18
- INCOME = NET REWARDS from pool/solo (including fees)
- PROFIT = INCOME - COSTS
- earnings should be same as official plots -3.125% dev fee
- earnings per TiB should be ~30% higher than the official -3.125% dev fee
- poor earnings suggest problem between plot/pool. Gigahorse guys can share results
- rewards after 30 hours of farming - effective avg 24h 448.3 TiB @ 3.8764 XCH with 103.93% luck. Long-term, we will see 100% luck. Thus, rewards corrected for 100% luck or 3.7658 XCH - dev fee.
- commonly used unit of electric energy kWh (used in utility bills) is of course kW used over the month period.
wattage 0.3312 kWh/TiB/monthwas calculated
~200Wh * 24 hours * 30 days / 1000for simple energy costs calculations
- study is business oriented where investors are interested in ROI, ROIC. Once, we know cashflows, we can “hope” based on uncle Warren’s DCF.
- investors do not rely on parents/boss to pay bills/HW, we use OPM for investing.
- wattage measured with APC UPS at 1s intervals
- rewards are long-term average of payments from pool (Flexpool is still not accurate)
- every 10 seconds (used to be around 5s), there is unusual burst disk access noise (compared to almost silent official plots). Requiring extra airflow in comparison to official plots that happily farm with passive cooling <40°C. MAY WEAR HDDs FASTER???
- pool difficulty 1-20 where most power consumption occurs
- farm is still too small to make it more interesting than official plots. Double or triple size may be more interesting for GPU farming
- plot costs 0.05CHF/plot (AMD 5950X @ 4.3GHz, 128GB RAM, Corsair MP600 2TB)
- 7454 plots, 737.77TiB
- over a year of real data based on amounts paid by pool, and APC UPS 1s readings
- reward 0.010245195128382 XCH/TiB/month
- reward 0.001014032413451 XCH/plot/month
- wattage 0.029023128521599 kWh/plot/month
- 0.034938770046954 XCH/kWh/TiB
- 4355 plots, 431.33TiB (except for per TiB calculations where plot size is used)
- plot costs <0.01CHF/plot (2x E5-2697v2, 512GB DDR3-1333)
- reward 0.0120328476 XCH/TiB/month
- reward 0.0008647072 XCH/plot/month (after dev fee)
- wattage 0.033065442020666 kWh/plot/month
- 0.0253341579 XCH/kWh/TiB
GPU farming Results
- mmx C8 earns -14.73% per plot (should be only -3.125% less than official)
- mmx C8 uses +13.93% more Wh/plot
- mmx C8 earns +17.45% per TiB (plot size, not effective-space)
- mmx C8 uses +62% more kWh/TiB/month (plot size, not effective-space)
- mmx C8 earns -27.5% less XCH/kWh/TiB ratio
- mmx C8 increased ROI for HDDs by 53% + GPU…no point to count further.
XCH price 38 CHF is doom threshold for the most efficient HDDs on market (20TB @ 14CHF/TB). I seek the best watt/space/ROI ratio.
Even the mighty Swiss with allegedly 100% energy independence charge us 0.31CHF/kWh.
mmx free cashflow per plot 0.033 - 0.01(energy used)=+0.022 CHF/plot/month. 20TB drive fits 261 C8 plots = +5.74CHF/month or 49 months/4.1 years ROI just for HDD.
official plots free cashflow per plot = +0.04-0.006=+0.034 CHF/plot/month = +8.87CHF/month = 32months/<3 years.
Miracles of accounting magic
Some kids claim 2 years ROI with used/certified HDDs <12TB @ 7-9$/TB. HDD still uses 6-7Wh no matter size.
Lets say we got 10TB used drives with questionable durability, and remaining lifespan. 10TB costs same amount of watt as 20TB, and holds a half of plots, thus requiring double space. Johny McDonald’s usual household has got 380W/25A pulled from street power lines, usually split to 2x 230V @ 10A max (at least in Europe).
One has got 2300W cap, assuming you live in a shed and do not use a fridge, gaming PC, no TV, no nothing. About 2x 350 HDDs cap per household. Chia is really getting “green” nowadays…used hdds of any size, GPUs, mega-über-plotting-rigs using 500Wh ROFL
10TB is 130 C8 plots. Rewards +0.03-0.01=+0.02 FCF/plot/month = +2.6 CHF/month. Lets say we got the average price 9 CHF/TB as I have usually seen in forums. ROI for such a drive is 35months/3 years
“Those who know do not talk, those who talk do not know.” Lao Tsu
“One does not speak unless one knows.” Mando
DO YOU WANT TO BE RIGHT OR RICH?
Of course, that is just ROI for HDDs…but wait those drives do not work on their own right?
Server + plotter + your time (average worker income in Swiss is <30 CHF/hour). Do you still wonder why there is no business interest in Chia It is a hobby for people that already spent >10´000 hours learning the computer trade in the last 30+ years…and we just wanna avoid brain muscle atrophy…while getting some “profit” along the way for the sake of future finance.
Let’s dream for a while, simulate where is C8 more profitable. Max said doubling the farm size may use +30Wh on GPU.
- 16 x 20 TB HDDs = 16 * 6.5Wh = 104Wh drives
farm wattage ~334Wh
8710 plots 862.66 TiB
7.2962375 XCH/month (similar to my official Chia farm)
Almost same number of plots in comparison to the official chia farm. Wattage is now 4.87% lower (theoretically).
- 32 x 20 TB HDDs = 32 * 6.5Wh = 208Wh drives
GPU +60Wh (GPU should run flat out 120W, 100% load now)
farm wattage ~470Wh
13065 plots 1293.99 TiB
Almost same number of plots in comparison to the official chia farm. Wattage is now 10.76% lower (theoretically).
Still, there is something weird about plot profitability. According to Max, plot rewards should be the same. In other words, official plots and compressed plots should have the same reward - 3.125% fee. The only difference, plots use less space and large enough farms should have more profit.